Xi Jinping, the President-in-waiting of China, has gone missing. The leadership of the Chinese Communist Party changes every five years (at least in its most recent history) and Xi was expected to succeed Hu Jintao at the next Party Congress in October. But the dates for the next Congress have yet to be announced and Xi has missed several important appointments with visiting diplomats. No one really knows what is going on, but the rumors are swirling in the Chinese (and non-Chinese) blogosphere. Needless to say, such uncertainty concerning one of the world’s most important countries is highly unsettling.
We have just witnessed the birth of a new nation-state: Kosovo. Kosovo was part of the former Yugoslavia, and then, after the break-up of Yugoslavia in 1991, part of the independent nation-state of Serbia. The population of Kosovo, however, is mostly Muslim and it was threatened by the non-Muslim majority of Serbia in 1998. There was a war and Kosovo has been protected by NATO forces which feared a genocide at that time. Since 2008 Kosovo’s independence has been protected by a coalition of states, and today its full independence was announced. Needless to say, Serbia is not pleased, and some states, such as Russia and China, have refused to recognize Kosovo as an independent state. We’ll see if there is a reaction from those quarters.
The quiz on Wednesday, 12 September, will be on the blogs posts from 6-10 September and the following readings on the syllabus: the lecture notes on political realism and the entry by Korab-Karpowicz. I will also ask questions about materials presented in the lectures.
The Economist has a great interactive map of global debt: check it out. But don’t worry. I won’t be asking any quiz questions about it (much too detailed).
Greece is a highly indebted country, and is clearlyunable to repay its debts. In order to make the payments on its debts, Greece needs to borrow money from the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (the three institutions have been dubbed “the troika”). In return for the loans, the troika is demanding that the Greek government reduce its expenditures on normal government functions such as police, education, and social services. But Greece is in the sixth year of an economic recession and unemployment is over 25%. So the question for Greece is should it repay its debts by depriving its citizens of needed services, or should it default on its loans and leave the eurozone?
The European Union is ratcheting up its presence in world affairs, and is demanding increased action against the violence in Syria and the Iranian nuclear program. The US is certainly happy about the moves, but it is unclear whether the Union has the ability or the will to take stronger action. Both issues seem to be intractable as long as the US and the EU are stymied by the vetoes of Russia and China in the UN Security Council.
The violence in Syria has been going on for over 18 months and there is no clear indication of when it might end. There is virtually no question that President Assad has lost his legitimacy as the leader of Syria, but government forces continue to fight on his behalf, despite continuing defections and despite orders to kill ordinary Syrian civilians. Such loyalty is difficult to explain, but this article in the Christian Science Monitor offers some reasons why government forces remain loyal.
US-Pakistani relations are incredibly complex and difficult, although both states need each other’s support: the US needs Pakistani support in the war in Afghanistan, and Pakistan needs US support to counterbalance Indian power in South Asia. The US has just taken a step that will complicate the relationship further. It has designated the Haqqani network, an organized group of individuals in Pakistan dedicated to helping the Taliban in Afghanistan, as a terrorist group. The network has significant support within the Pakistani military and among parts of its civilian population, but the designation means that the US will have to take action against some very powerful people.
The new technologies offer great promise to poor countries. It allows them to leapfrog over the very costly infrastructural investments that historically been associated with communications networks. The Economist ran a terrific article on how Kenya is being affected by this revolution.
Robert Haddick published an essay in Foreign Policy which suggests that the US is not militarily prepared to defend its interests in the Persian Gulf. It is a provocative essay and one that deserves careful analysis and thought. There are a number of assumptions within the essay that are not fully spelled out (“In contrast with Jerusalem, Washington views Iran as a distant and manageable problem”–is the US and Israeli national interest exactly the same with respect to Iran? Should it be?). Read it carefully and ask questions as you do.
Nationalism plays a big role in world politics, and the issue of group identity, while well understood in some ways, remains an elusive one. An experiment conducted in the 1950s (The “Robbers Cave Experiment”) sheds some fascinating light on the dynamics of group identity.
No one really knows what the long-term consequences of globalization might be, but it is a process that has inspired some rich and provocative thinking (as well as some dreadful schlock). The BBC ran a short essay on work and globalization that raises some very interesting propositions. Definitely worth thinking about.
The European sovereign debt crisis is beginning to simmer again as it becomes increasingly clear that Greece will likely leave the eurozone and the possibility of a Spanish default becomes more likely. The European Central Bank has very limited powers (it is nothing like the US Federal Reserve Bank) but it is trying to avoid these catastrophes. The language of the ECB sounds promising, but there are serious doubts about whether the ECB will be able to solve the problems without some serious changes to its charter.
The US war against Iraq which began in March 2003 was predicated upon the assumption that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction that US policymakers feared would fall into the hands of al-Qaeda. The world soon learned that these weapons did not exist and the initial assessments were regarded as massive intelligence failures. After 6 years, the CIA has finally released its assessment of those failures. You can skim parts of the report, but I will not be asking any questions about the report itself. It is so heavily redacted that it is difficult to follow the thread of the argument.
The Christian Science Monitor ran a very nice history of the status of the city of Jerusalem, currently a contested city and also a point of contention between Republicans and Democrats. The history is important: After the creation of a Jewish and an Arab area in the former British colony of Palestine, the UN declared the city of Jerusalem to be an international enclave, not within the sovereignty of either the Jewish or the Arab state. Israel took control of Jerusalem after the 1967 war with Jordan, Syria, and Egypt (the CSM story calls this war one provoked by “Arab aggression”–some analysts would disagree with this characterization), but few states have yet to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the city. The Republicans favor recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the city; the Democrats do not.
UPDATE: At 5 pm the Democrats voted to change their platform to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. It was a weird event. The change required a 2/3 voice vote in favor. The Chair had to ask three times for a vote and finally ruled that the ayes had the 2/3s necessary. It certainly didn’t sound that way to me. Make your own judgment.
As we move toward another political convention (the Democrats this time), we’ll be hearing lots of rhetoric about the American middle class. It is a crucially important issue, and Barry Ritholz, one of the savviest economic bloggers around, has a great post on the status of the middle class. Here’s one of his graphs:
After nearly four decades of violence, the Colombian government has announced that it is starting peace talks with a rebel group known as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The bloodshed in Colombia, fueled by ethnic animosity, economic inequality, and drug money, has been unremitting and horrific. It’s too soon to make any predictions, but it appears as if both sides have decided that they are invested in negotiations over a very long term–itself a hopeful sign.
The Economist published this chart on global arms sales in its 3 September 2012 edition. A very revealing graphic.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is increasing his pressure on the US, insisting that the world should draw “clear red lines” for the Iranian nuclear program. The Telegraph (UK) is reporting that President Obama is going to make such a statement but no other news agency is confirming that yet. Obama has ordered a 25-nation minesweeping exercise in the Persian Gulf as a signal to Iran, and has implemented a new radar system in Qatar. This US-Israeli dance is getting quite intense: it appears as if Prime Minister Netanyahu does not believe that Obama is serious about preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon no matter what steps short of war Obama is willing to take. As Israeli newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth, is claiming that the US and Iran have reached a secret deal for the US to stay out of an Israeli attack on Iran.
I have not posted yet on the blasphemy case that is going on in Pakistan because I was hoping that it was an anomaly. But the case has simply exploded internationally. Charges were leveled against an 11-year old Christian girl for desecrating the Koran. It now appears as if the charges were trumped up in an attempt to purge Christians from that region in Pakistan. The case raises many issues, one of which is the extent to which personal freedom and religious solidarity are compatible in some societies. We’ll watch how this case unfolds over the next few weeks.
September promises to be an economically volatile month as Europe is slated to go through a very difficult period. The last 5 years have been very difficult for most people in the world and an op-ed piece in the Washington Post tries to assess our economic state of affairs. It is a long article, but well worth the read–it asks all sorts of questions that are being avoided by the major parties in the US.
Turkey has emerged as a very important regional player in the Middle East, and has enjoyed its position as a bridge between Europe and Asia. The person most responsible for the evolution of Turkish foreign policy is its Prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Economist has a good (but brief) assessment of his aspirations.
The Rohingya are a Muslim minority in Burma, and are among the most persecuted people on earth. There are about 800,000 of them who live in Burma, but there is a strong Buddhist movement to expel them from Burma. The Burmese claim that the Rohingya are from Bangladesh, but that country refuses to take the Rohingya in. The persecution of the Rohingya has ramped up quite dramatically since the military has loosened control in Burma.
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