No one really knows what the long-term consequences of globalization might be, but it is a process that has inspired some rich and provocative thinking (as well as some dreadful schlock). The BBC ran a short essay on work and globalization that raises some very interesting propositions. Definitely worth thinking about.
The European sovereign debt crisis is beginning to simmer again as it becomes increasingly clear that Greece will likely leave the eurozone and the possibility of a Spanish default becomes more likely. The European Central Bank has very limited powers (it is nothing like the US Federal Reserve Bank) but it is trying to avoid these catastrophes. The language of the ECB sounds promising, but there are serious doubts about whether the ECB will be able to solve the problems without some serious changes to its charter.
The US war against Iraq which began in March 2003 was predicated upon the assumption that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction that US policymakers feared would fall into the hands of al-Qaeda. The world soon learned that these weapons did not exist and the initial assessments were regarded as massive intelligence failures. After 6 years, the CIA has finally released its assessment of those failures. You can skim parts of the report, but I will not be asking any questions about the report itself. It is so heavily redacted that it is difficult to follow the thread of the argument.
The Christian Science Monitor ran a very nice history of the status of the city of Jerusalem, currently a contested city and also a point of contention between Republicans and Democrats. The history is important: After the creation of a Jewish and an Arab area in the former British colony of Palestine, the UN declared the city of Jerusalem to be an international enclave, not within the sovereignty of either the Jewish or the Arab state. Israel took control of Jerusalem after the 1967 war with Jordan, Syria, and Egypt (the CSM story calls this war one provoked by “Arab aggression”–some analysts would disagree with this characterization), but few states have yet to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the city. The Republicans favor recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the city; the Democrats do not.
UPDATE: At 5 pm the Democrats voted to change their platform to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. It was a weird event. The change required a 2/3 voice vote in favor. The Chair had to ask three times for a vote and finally ruled that the ayes had the 2/3s necessary. It certainly didn’t sound that way to me. Make your own judgment.
As we move toward another political convention (the Democrats this time), we’ll be hearing lots of rhetoric about the American middle class. It is a crucially important issue, and Barry Ritholz, one of the savviest economic bloggers around, has a great post on the status of the middle class. Here’s one of his graphs:
After nearly four decades of violence, the Colombian government has announced that it is starting peace talks with a rebel group known as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The bloodshed in Colombia, fueled by ethnic animosity, economic inequality, and drug money, has been unremitting and horrific. It’s too soon to make any predictions, but it appears as if both sides have decided that they are invested in negotiations over a very long term–itself a hopeful sign.
The Economist published this chart on global arms sales in its 3 September 2012 edition. A very revealing graphic.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is increasing his pressure on the US, insisting that the world should draw “clear red lines” for the Iranian nuclear program. The Telegraph (UK) is reporting that President Obama is going to make such a statement but no other news agency is confirming that yet. Obama has ordered a 25-nation minesweeping exercise in the Persian Gulf as a signal to Iran, and has implemented a new radar system in Qatar. This US-Israeli dance is getting quite intense: it appears as if Prime Minister Netanyahu does not believe that Obama is serious about preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon no matter what steps short of war Obama is willing to take. As Israeli newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth, is claiming that the US and Iran have reached a secret deal for the US to stay out of an Israeli attack on Iran.
I have not posted yet on the blasphemy case that is going on in Pakistan because I was hoping that it was an anomaly. But the case has simply exploded internationally. Charges were leveled against an 11-year old Christian girl for desecrating the Koran. It now appears as if the charges were trumped up in an attempt to purge Christians from that region in Pakistan. The case raises many issues, one of which is the extent to which personal freedom and religious solidarity are compatible in some societies. We’ll watch how this case unfolds over the next few weeks.
September promises to be an economically volatile month as Europe is slated to go through a very difficult period. The last 5 years have been very difficult for most people in the world and an op-ed piece in the Washington Post tries to assess our economic state of affairs. It is a long article, but well worth the read–it asks all sorts of questions that are being avoided by the major parties in the US.
Turkey has emerged as a very important regional player in the Middle East, and has enjoyed its position as a bridge between Europe and Asia. The person most responsible for the evolution of Turkish foreign policy is its Prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Economist has a good (but brief) assessment of his aspirations.
The Rohingya are a Muslim minority in Burma, and are among the most persecuted people on earth. There are about 800,000 of them who live in Burma, but there is a strong Buddhist movement to expel them from Burma. The Burmese claim that the Rohingya are from Bangladesh, but that country refuses to take the Rohingya in. The persecution of the Rohingya has ramped up quite dramatically since the military has loosened control in Burma.
I have posted a number of articles on the problem of income inequality, but most of them have come from lefty publications. Mike Lofgren, who was a Republican staffer for 16 years, has written an essay in The American Conservative, and it raises the political problems on income inequality from a conservative point of view.
Nationalist emotions are rising all over Europe (and elsewhere). In Hungary. In Armenia. In Russia.
In an earlier post I commented on the lack of comments in the Republican convention about foreign policy. Foreign Policy Passport actually did a word count. Quite the strange turn of perspective for the GOP.
The Non-Aligned Movement has ended its meeting in Iran. The NAM represents about two-thirds of the membership of the United Nations, so one would think that it would receive a great deal of press coverage. Such is not the case. The NAM voted unanimously today to support Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy, a sharp repudiation to the position taken by the US and some other members of the UN Security Council. But you have to read the article in the Washington Post very carefully in order to find out that this decision was made.
One of the basic tenets of classical realism is that human nature is inherently aggressive. There is some evidence upon which this claim is made, but there is an increasing amount of evidence that human beings are also inherently cooperative. The BBC reports on one such bit of evidence and the experiment upon which it is based.
Lots of people watched the Republican national convention, not all of them Americans. The Russians, in particular, were not at all pleased by what they interpreted as Governor Romney’s hostile comments. It was also striking that for the first time in my memory the Presidential candidate of a major party did not mention any of the wars in which American soldiers are currently participating.
Americans have a hard time figuring out how to respond to China–many worry excessively about its increasing power. Here’s an article that suggests that Americans should worry more about China’s weaknesses.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that Iran has doubled its centrifuge capacity. That increased ability to produce enriched uranium has caused great apprehension in Israel. Israeli Prime Minster Netanyahu will speak to the UN General Assembly in September about the threat, so it would seem as if any planned attack on Iran will be delayed until after that time. But the timing of the attack, if it is planned, will depend largely on military considerations. At the same time, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made a speech to the Non-Aligned Movement leaders in which he definitely ruled out Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons.
World food prices jumped 10% last month because of the droughts affecting different parts of the world. The increase may seem small, but for those who live on the margins of subsistence (about 1 billion people) the price increases will prove crippling.
Three prominent economists argue in the Christian Science Monitor that a potential breakup of the eurozone could bring recession to the rest of the world. There is a lot of activity in the eurozone right now as it appears as if Greece will not be able to satisfy the requirements of the European Central Bank, the EU, and the IMF. The Germans are now sending mixed signals–some hard-line, others softer–about the possibility of giving Greece more time to restructure its debt. We should expect a lot of discussion in the next few weeks.
I have mentioned in previous posts how India seems to be ignoring American requests to isolate Iran. A noted analyst, Sumit Ganguly, gives an explanation of Indian foreign policy which makes a great deal of sense. If Ganguly is correct, there is little reason to expect the Indians to cooperate with an Iranian embargo.
The Atlantic has yet another article on the likelihood of an Israeli-Iranian war. I am posting the article not necessarily because I believe that the article is correct, but because it is important to figure out how analysts make their assessments. We will, at some point, be able to determine whether these analysts were correct. It is worthwhile knowing what variables seem to critical in making predictions.
The ongoing turmoil in Syria has led to a massive refugee problem for a number of its neighbors. The most seriously affected is Turkey, and there is a robust discussion of creating some sort of enclave for the refugees in Turkey. The impulse for the enclave is humanitarian, but there are a number of possible repercussions to such a move. The most serious issue is whether that enclave would serve as a base for a Syrian government-in-exile. That move would place Turkey squarely in the middle of the contest between the opponents of Syria (basically the US, Europe, and Israel) and the supporters of Syria (Russia and Iran). The second concern is whether that enclave might serve as a base for disaffected Kurds, who have long fought for autonomy within Turkey. This is a difficult decision for the Turks.
Foreign Policy has an interesting post on the Republican Party platform on foreign policy issues. Again, most candidates do not believe that the platform commits them to any particular course of action. But it is an interesting perspective on the role of the United States in world affairs.
A great post by Stephen Walt on what every “foreign policy wonk should study.”
World Politics News 