World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

The US Navy posted this announcement on 29 May:

It would be foolish to infer that this warning signals the beginning of active violence against Iran by the US and Israel. But it is also impossible to dismiss that possibility. Despite all the ridiculous drivel that has been published about “broad agreement” on a variety of issues, the most substantive issue, control over the Strait of Hormuz, has not yet even been discussed by the opposed parties. The US has been unable to restrain Israel over the conflict in Lebanon and the question of what to do with the enriched uranium seems to be at an impasse.

The rational response to these conditions would be to find a face-saving exit which would roughly correspond to the JCPOA fashioned by President Obama in 2015 and cancelled by President Trump in 2018. However, that option does not seem to be on the table right now. Equally unlikely would be a continuation of this deadlock. The US is drawing down its reserves (and continues to export petroleum products to the rest of the world) which will lead to an abrupt collapse of the US oil economy if the blockade extends into July.

So, it is not weird to think that this message presages an all-out attack on Iran and seizure of some parts of the Persian Gulf–either the islands (Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa) right near the Strait or some parts of Oman on the other side of the Gulf. Today marks the end of the haj which the Saudis wanted to protect for religious, economic, and political reasons. The Gulf states (except for the United Arab Emirates) are probably strongly opposed to an attack, but I am not at all certain that Trump really cares about their concerns (after all, if they ditch the US, then Israel emerges as the dominant regional power and the populations of those states would find that alliance uncomfortable.

So, I think we should be prepared for a higher level of meaningless violence. There is no reason whatsoever that Iran would ever bend if it felt that its civilization was at risk. The lessons of World War II, the Korean conflict, Vietnam War, and the Afghan war all testify to the impotence of aerial bombardment in changing political calculations.