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Larry Johnson writes in a blog summarizing the claims Trump has made on the situation with Iran:

• The “Hormuz Strait situation is over” and Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. He described it as “completely open and ready for business and full passage.”
• Iran (with US help) is removing the mines it laid in the strait last month.
• Iran has agreed to nearly all (or “virtually all”) of his demands, including ending its nuclear program “forever.”
• The war is “very close to over” / “close to being over,” and a final deal should be completed “very quickly” (possibly with talks this weekend). He said most points have already been negotiated.
• He agreed to a two-week double-sided ceasefire (suspended bombing/attacks) after requests from Pakistani leaders, conditional on Iran fully opening the strait. Despite Iran’s announcement that the strait is open, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports will remain in full force until the overall transaction/deal with Iran is “100% complete.”
• China’s President Xi Jinping is “very happy” that the strait is open/rapidly opening. Trump claimed he is doing this “for them, also — and the World,” and that this situation “will never happen again.”
• China has agreed not to send weapons to Iran. Trump predicted his upcoming trip to China will be “special” and “potentially Historic,” and that President Xi will give him a “big, fat, hug.”
• He dismissed NATO as a “Paper Tiger” that was “useless when needed.” After the strait reopened, NATO reportedly offered help, but Trump told them to stay away unless they just wanted to “load up their ships with oil.”
• He emphasized that the US has already met and exceeded its military objectives. He claimed Iran now has a “new regime” that is “much less radicalized and far more intelligent” than before, making a long-term peace agreement possible. He reiterated that the U.S. will work with Iran “at a leisurely pace” on finalizing the deal.

Not one of these claims is true and the scale of the dishonesty of Trump is breathtaking. Iran has adhered to the terms of the ceasefire and insists that its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will continue as long as the US maintains its own blockade of Iranian oil tankers transiting the Strait. Iran has not agreed to turn over its enriched uranium, insisting that

“Iran’s enriched uranium is not going to be transferred anywhere. Transferring uranium to the United States has not been an option for us,” Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, told state television. 

“Iran is thought to possess more than 900 pounds of uranium enriched up to 60 percent purity.

“Trump has repeatedly stated that one of the war aims is to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. 

“Iran says its enrichment of uranium is strictly for peaceful civilian use.”

There are a number of possible reasons for Trump making these outrageous claims. The first is that he is simply delusional. I must admit that after seeing him portray himself as Jesus, this explanation has a great deal of power. I am not qualified to make a clinical judgment, but I strongly suspect that if someone told us that they were Jesus, we would be greatly alarmed.

The second explanation is that Trump is simply saying these things, knowing that Iran will have to deny them. He can them falsely claim that Iran reneged on the deal. Such a claim would then be used to restart the war because Iran’s word “cannot be trusted”.

Third, it is possible that the whole episode of the purported “ceasefire” was designed to give the US time to prepare ground troops for an invasion of Iran. The US just added another 10,000 troops to the already 50,000 in the Middle East. This position is held by Russia, and it is highly likely that the Iranian leadership believes this as well:

“Russia’s Security Council cautioned Monday that ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran could be serving as cover for preparations for a ground military operation against Iran, citing a significant buildup of American forces across the Middle East.

“‘The United States and Israel can use the peace talks to prepare for a ground operation against Iran,’ the Security Council said in a statement, as the Pentagon continues to expand its military presence in the region.”

This last possibility is the most frightening, since every bit of evidence from every conflict since the end of World War II suggests that invasions rarely succeed if the invasion takes more than a month to accomplish. And the limited successes were purchased at very high costs (I only have one success in mind–the UN action against Iraq in 1991). A ground war would also involve many other states almost by necessity–the region is incredibly interdependent given the imperatives of pumping, refining, and transporting petroleum-based products. Every state requires pretty much the same set-up.

Unfortunately, I think that the third possibility is also the most likely. Trump almost always chickens out, but this time he has boxed himself in by initiating the war, and because of the pressures of the upcoming midterm elections. I desperately hope that I am wrong.