29 August 2012   Leave a comment

Three prominent economists argue in the Christian Science Monitor that a potential breakup of the eurozone could bring recession to the rest of the world.  There is a lot of activity in the eurozone right now as it appears as if Greece will not be able to satisfy the requirements of the European Central Bank, the EU, and the IMF.  The Germans are now sending mixed signals–some hard-line, others softer–about the possibility of giving Greece more time to restructure its debt.  We should expect a lot of discussion in the next few weeks.

I have mentioned in previous posts how India seems to be ignoring American requests to isolate Iran.  A noted analyst, Sumit Ganguly, gives an explanation of Indian foreign policy which makes a great deal of sense.  If Ganguly is correct, there is little reason to expect the Indians to cooperate with an Iranian embargo.

The Atlantic has yet another article on the likelihood of an Israeli-Iranian war.  I am posting the article not necessarily because I believe that the article is correct, but because it is important to figure out how analysts make their assessments.  We will, at some point, be able to determine whether these analysts were correct.  It is worthwhile knowing what variables seem to critical in making predictions.

Posted August 29, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

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