There was a nationwide strike in India, in protest over economic reforms that reflect more openness to the process of globalization. The governing party raised fuel prices and opened the door to global retailers like Wal-Mart, but many of the poor and small business owners believed that these reforms will only worsen their own economic position. The protests only complicate an already unstable political situation in India which has been rocked by charges of corruption and a slowing economic situation.
As the Chinese-Japanese stand-off deepens, we all begin to look for historical parallels that might offer some insight into how other stand-offs evolved. A creepy historical example is the French-German crisis in Agadir prior to World War I. Let’s hope that history’s lessons are not applicable to the current case.
To deepen everyone’s apprehension, David Ignatius of the Washington Post (Ignatius is unusually well-connected to the Department of Defense), wrote a sobering analysis of the most recent wargame simulation by the Pentagon of a confrontation with Iran. It doesn’t end well.
The island dispute between China and Japan is escalating into consumer boycotts against each other. This escalation is interesting since it suggests a grass-roots movement that is still unmeasurable. Nonetheless, it is also a dangerous escalation since both countries need each other economically.
According to Foreign Policy, the banner reads: “Even if China becomes nothing but tombstones, we must exterminate the Japanese; even if we have to destroy our own country, we must take back the Diaoyu Islands” (I cannot verify the translation–perhaps others can). The article further suggests that Audi is not at all pleased by the photograph.
Arctic sea ice reached the lowest level ever recorded by human beings. The level broke the most recent record low, recorded in 2007. Most climate models did not predict such a melt until 2030 at the earliest. Now some believe that the arctic sea ice will be completely gone in the summer within 4 years.
The world of world politics is filled with uncertainties. There are very few “facts” that are incontestable. For example, earlier this week, some Iranian officials claimed that members of the elite Revolutionary guard were in Syria as advisers to President Assad (it is not a secret that Iran supports the Syrian regime, but sending actual “troops” is a significant step since they may kill or be killed which ups the stakes involved). Now that claim is being denied. Which statement is true? Most likely the first statement, although the advisers are carefully disguised. Can another state act as if the Iranians have already intervened in the Syrian conflict? Not unless they have clear evidence. But should they ignore the Iranian interference simply because there’s no hard evidence?
The Economist has an incredible graphic on how social media mirrors the old imperial patterns. Some things never change, unfortunately.
US-China economic relations have become a hot issue in the US presidential campaign. Trade disputes between the US and China are not new, and both sides have used the World Trade Organization as an arbiter of trade disputes. Politicizing these disputes in the election campaign makes the ultimate resolution of the disputes more difficult.
The quiz on 19 September in the Mount Holyoke world politics class will be on these readings: Wilson, Milgram, and Carey. In addition the quiz will have questions on the blog posts from 13-17 September (inclusive) and the lectures.
If a link is incorrect or broken in any week, please do not worry. If students cannot access the correct news article, I will not ask any questions about the erroneous or non-existent article.
US Defense Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, has urged both China and Japan to tamp down the rhetoric over the disputed islands between them. The dispute is bringing out a strong nationalist impulse among the populations of both states, and such emotions are sometimes very difficult to control. The US clearly fears any military conflict in which it might have to choose sides.
The anti-US riots in recent days have highlighted an important difference in values that exist in the world. In some Islamic societies, blasphemy is a crime punishable by death; in liberal societies, such language is typically protected by freedom of speech. Such laws are not simply a difference of opinion–they reflect the relative weights given to the protection of society as opposed to the protection of the individual, and, as such, they are fundamentally different ways of viewing the world.
There were huge protests in Spain and Portugal over the weekend. The protests were aimed to show discontent with the austerity measures imposed on the two states by the European Union. It is not clear whether the governments of the two states can effectively respond to the protests–they need the outside money in order to prevent a debt default. It is a classic rock and a hard place scenario.
One of the most troubling aspects of the process of globalization is its correlation with increasing income inequality which seems to be a global trend, affecting all countries. The process has been well-documented in the United States because it has a fairly robust data collection process. Here is a post that uses the most recent US Census data on income shares in the United States.
One of the exercises that are critically important to develop analytical skills is to ask “what if” questions (or to use social science jargon, “counterfactuals”). Barry Lando asks a very simple question: why is the US and not China patrolling the Persian/Arabian Gulf? Asking such questions can lead to very interesting observations.
The BBC has published an article that tries to probe the underlying causes of the protests against the US in so many countries over the last four days. Even though the stated cause of the protests was the distribution of the anti-Muslim film trailer on Google, one should always be aware of the difference between catalysts for protests and the deeper reasons for the protests.
China is sending six warships to the area of islands disputed by both China and Japan (called the Diaoyu by China; the Senkakus by Japan). Japan had earlier tried to buy the islands from a private individual, and control of the territorial has been a steadily escalating issue for several months now. Sending warships is a signficiant act; we will have to see if the Japanese respond. The US is most likely trying to tamp down the tension as much as possible.
The Chinese have just announced that Xi Jinping, the president-in-waiting, will make an appearance soon. The report asserts that Mr. Xi is recovering from a bad back and has been undergoing physical therapy. All China watchers will be examining his every step if and when he appears.
Foreign Policy has a great post on the differences between Romney and Obama on the Iranian issue. There seems to be a great deal of confusion within Romney’s advisers. The “red line” between capacity to build a bomb and the possession of a bomb is a difficult one to draw effectively.
Here’s a map of the anti-US protests currently going on.
The protests against the US for the dissemination of the film, “Innocence of Muslims,” has now spread to 11 countries. Libya has arrested some individuals associated with the violence in Benghazi, but the center of attention will remain on Cairo. Egyptian President Morsi has been less than forthright in his assessment of the protests, and President Obama responded by labeling Egypt as neither a friend or an enemy. A lot hangs in the balance right now, and the course of events over the next few days will be determined by how the Egyptian government decides to deal with the protests. In the meantime, the violence in Syria continues to escalate.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has issued yet another rebuke to Iran for its failure to comply with IAEA expectations. The intent of these resolutions is to prepare a paper trail of non-compliance. The important point is that the IAEA has yet to declare that Iran is in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Even then, the matter would have to be referred to the UN Security Council before military action against Iran is authorized.
The miners strike in South Africa continues and is spreading. The strike poses a serious challenge to the ruling African National Congress Party and President Zuma. It is also a serious threat to the South African economy. We will have to see if the strike precipitates more general unrest in the country.
There’s too much going on right now for me to sort out intelligently. The dreadful events in Libya are difficult to figure out. The “movie” that precipitated the crisis apparently is not what it seems: someone modified it and planted it. That conclusion leads us into the wacko world of conspiracy which is an impossible framework to analyze without hard information. There are a number of actors who might have a motive in fostering such discontent. We’ll have to hope that the journalists do a good job of ferreting out the information we need.
Europe is breathing a lot easier today after the German constitutional court ruled that German participation in the European Stability Mechanism was legal and after the results of the Dutch election return pro-euro parties to power. The euro gained strength as a result, but these improvements are just temporary. The weaknesses of Greece and Spain still persist.
US-Israeli relations reached a new low because of comments made by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that suggest he is losing confidence in US promises to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon. The cancellation of a planned meeting between Obama and Netanyahu in mid-September is a sign of a significant rupture. Whether that rupture will lead Israel to take action without US support is a real possibility, but also one to be feared.
It is very difficult to interpret the relationship between discontent and political violence. We know that riots periodically appear, but often when we least expect them and sometimes never when we think they are most likely. A group at MIT has developed a computer model that predicts political violence (successfully in the case of the Arab Spring), and the model suggests that riots will return to world affairs in 2013.
Violence has broken out in the West Bank, mainly against leaders of Fatah, the governing party in the West Bank. I must admit, this outbreak caught me by surprise. There is no reliable news about what goes on in the Occupied Territories, and I didn’t see any reports in any of the mainstream media. But the violence was provoked by rising prices and discontent with corruption. The spark that lit the fire were self-immolations–the same spark that ignited the Arab Spring in Tunisia. In retrospect, I should not have been surprised. We will have to see how this part of the story unfolds.
World Politics News 