In previous posts we have discussed the belief among many states that Germany’s insistence on balanced budgets and a trade surplus is depressing demand in the global economy. Many of those states believe that Germany should take steps to increase domestic spending in order to stimulate purchases of foreign goods and services, thereby stimulating the global economy. The German reluctance to do so rests on its memory of the hyperinflation of 1923–increased government spending always carries with it the risk of greater inflation. The Economist has run an article that describes how this historical experience shapes current German policy.
It appears as if the US and Afghanistan have agreed on the status of American forces that will remain in Afghanistan after all US combat troops leave in 2014. The role of those forces will be merely to “train, equip, and assist” according to US Secretary of State Kerry. According to CBS News: “The Bilateral Security Agreement is a sweeping document that incorporates the usual Status of Forces Protection Agreement, which the U.S. signs with every country where its troops are stationed. The document covers everything from taxation and customs duties to a promise to protect Afghanistan from hostile action.” The Agreement needs to be ratified by the Loya Jirga which is he traditional ruling council of Afghanistan.
The process of globalization accelerated in the last 30 years, but the financial crises of 2007-08 which reverberated across the globe has led some analysts to think that the world is snapping back to a more nationalist orientation toward economic policy. At some level this conclusion seems substantiated. For example, many countries are certainly using currency valuations to protect their export markets. On the other hand, there is plenty of evidence, as described by Time magazine, to believe that globalization is still proceeding at a very fast rate.
Twin bombs were exploded outside the Iranian embassy in Beirut, Lebanon. The Abdullah Azzam Brigades, an Islamist militant group with ties to Al Qaeda, took responsibility for the blasts and it signifies an escalation of the regional war now being waged by Sunni militants against the Shia supporters of Iran in Syria and Lebanon. Lebanon’s political system is very complex, reflecting the incredible variety of peoples and groups in the country, and has managed with great difficulty to navigate tremendous political pressures from within. These explosions threaten the political stability of Lebanon. We will have to see whether other groups respond in kind to these attacks.
Even though the Chinese economy –one of the few bright spots in the global economy–still continues to grow, fears are beginning to surface about the country’s heavy reliance on debt. According to some estimates, Chinese debt has grown from 130% of GDP in 2008 to perhaps 250% this year. Unofficial interest rates (the official interest rate is controlled by the central government) are rising substantially, leading some to fear that borrowers will be unable to repay their debts. In some respects, this situation mirrors the debt problems in the US and Europe in 2007-08, and there are concerns that a similar crisis might occur in this very important country.
The US and Afghanistan are trying to forge an agreement to govern the conduct of American troops which might remain even after the official end of US combat operations in Afghanistan in 2014. A similar agreement was sought in Iraq after the US pullout, but both sides failed to agree on whether Iraqi or American law would govern the conduct of US troops. Consequently, all US soldiers left Iraq. The discussions in Afghanistan are following the same script and may flounder on the same issue. The US will not allow its soldiers to conduct operations if they might be prosecuted in Afghan courts, but Afghanistan does not wish to grant immunity to troops who might commit crimes under Afghan law. A total pullout of US troops will leave Afghanistan in a very difficult situation as it tries to take over security operations for the entire country.
Swiss voters will vote in a referendum on a proposal to limit salaries in large corporations. The ratio of the highest paid employee will be limited to 12 times the salary of the lowest paid employee. The proposal is an attempt to reduce the growing income inequality in virtually every country of the world. There is also, however, a sense that wide pay disparities lead to social dysfunction. The vote will take place on 24 November and the measure is not expected to pass at this time. But a number of other political parties in Europe have seized upon the campaign, and the movement will likely persist for some time.
French President Hollande has been very active on his trip to Israel and the occupied West Bank. When in Israel he strongly argued against any Iranian deal that did not provide certainty that Iran would not develop nuclear weapons. On the other hand, Hollande flatly said that “France demands a full and complete halt to settlement activity.” Both lines in the sand are highly unlikely: there is no way to provide “certainty” that Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons, nor is there any possibility that Israel will completely halt settlement activity. Perhaps Hollande is trying to link the two issues in order to induce a compromise. If so, it will be an incredible diplomatic coup.
Michelle Bachelet won nearly 47% of the popular vote in the Chilean presidential election, 3% short of the majority necessary to avoid a runoff election. Thus, Bachelet will run against her childhood friend, and center-right candidate, Evelyn Matthei next month. Matthei only got 25% of the vote, so it seems likely that Bachelet will win. It remains to be seen if she will have enough support to implement her socialist agenda and it also seems unlikely that she will be able to change the 1980 Pinochet constitution.
The problems of climate change have been strongly suggested by the severity of Typhoon Haiyan and the damage suffered by the people of the Philippines. We have no clear relationship between climate change and specific storms, but there are reasons to believe that a relationship does in fact exist. For many people in the poorer nations of the world, the issue of climate change is also an issue of inequality. Poor countries have contributed little to the historical build-up of greenhouse gases (although they are catching up quickly), but they are the least capable of making the necessary adaptations to the changes that those greenhouse gases may cause. Many of the poor countries are demanding that the rich countries pay for the damages their historical actions are creating in poor countries. Naderev Sano, a Filipino diplomat representing his country at the UN climate talks in Warsaw which were going on as the tragedy unfolded in the Philippines, gave a speech that made that demand quite forcefully.
Another Persian Gulf country, Qatar, has been accused of the extensive abuse of migrant laborers. The charges are similar to those leveled against Saudi Arabia and workers from Ethiopia. Amnesty International has issued a report which catalogs abuses such as forced overtime, harsh working conditions, and delayed wages for migrant workers. The charges are especially troubling since much of the construction work is directed toward Qatar’s role as the host to the 2022 World Cup. It is ironic that one of the richest countries in the world as measured by GDP per capita feels obliged to resort to what is essentially slave labor.
Chile voted for a new president today, and the polls indicate that Center-Left candidate, Michele Bachelet, may well take over 50% of the vote, obviating the need for a run-off election. Bachelet was President from 2006-2010, and in the intervening years there have been many protests against the policies of the more centrist current President Sebastian Pinera. If Bachelet does not get 50% of the vote she will face Evelyn Matthei in a run-off election. Bachelet and her father were torture victims of the dictator Pinochet who brutally led Chile from 1973-90; ironically, Matthei supported the Pinochet regime in a 1998 plebiscite.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made very positive comments about a possible nuclear deal with Iran. The P5+1 and Iran negotiations are scheduled to resume on 20 November and, according to Lavrov, “now there are no fundamental disagreements on which issues need to be resolved in practice.” The Israelis, however, have a completely different take on the negotiations. Israeli Homeland Defense Minister Gilad Erdan said in a radio interview on Saturday that Israel does not recognize Iran’s right to enrich uranium. Minister Erdan’s position is inconsistent with the Non-Proliferation Treaty which explicitly recognizes the right of signatory nations to enrich uranium for energy and for medical uses. We will have to keep an eye on French President Hollande’s visit to Israel this week, since France was identified as the main opponent within the P5+1 group to the proposed deal with Iran in the previous round of negotiations.
An era has come to an end in India. Sachin Tendulkar, one of the greatest cricket players in the history of the sport, has retired. Few people outside of the countries of the former British Empire comprehend cricket, nor do they appreciate the significance of the sport to the independent nations that emerged from the empire. Cricket is arguably the most popular sport in the world (after soccer/football), and the success of the former colonies in besting Great Britain in the game was an important milestone in the decolonization movement. Tendulkar received India’s highest civilian honor, the Bharat Ratna, for his on- and off-field excellence.
China has announced some major policy changes. It will drop its “one child policy” adopted in 1979 as a means of controlling the country’s large population. In truth, the policy had never been uniformly enforced, but the change was necessary as China goes through a major demographic shift to a much older population. The slow growth in its population means that there will be too few workers to support a large number of retired persons. China also announced that it was going to end its prison labor camps. These camps have held hundreds of thousands of Chinese citizens without trial. All in all, more than 60 reforms were announced by the Chinese government in Xinhua.
The UN Security Council has failed to delay the trial of Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto. Rwanda, Togo and Morocco sponsored the resolution to delay the trial by one year, and they were joined by Russia, China, Azerbaijan and Pakistan. The resolution, however, required nine affirmative votes and all other members of the Council abstained. Curiously, the US abstained from the vote which effectively reinforces the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. The US, however, has never recognized the authority of the ICC in its own affairs. This is part of the statement released by US UN Ambassador Samantha Power explaining the abstention:
The United States and Kenya have been friends and strong partners for half a century. We value the friendship and will continue working with the government and people of Kenya on issues of shared concern, including security against terror, economic development, environmental protection, the promotion of human rights, and justice. We also continue to recognize the important role that the ICC can play in achieving accountability, and are steadfast in our belief that justice for the innocent victims of the post-election violence in Kenya is essential to lasting peace.
I do not know if this article will be accessible to the readers of the blog. It is a blog post from Professor Stephen Walt who teaches at Harvard University who is unquestionably one of the most astute analysts of world politics today. He is also a self-avowed realist and co-author of a very important book that analyzed the power of the Israel lobby on American foreign policy. Unfortunately, it is posted on Foreign Policy which requires registration. I am hoping that the blog sections of the online version do not require registration (since I subscribe to Foreign Policy I automatically have access to the blog and therefore cannot test whether non-subscribers have access). But, given the discussions we have had in class about the current Iranian negotiations, I thought the Walt post would be very helpful. If you have access to a College computer, Foreign Policy can be accessed automatically. Obviously, I will not ask any questions on the quiz about this article.
The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency has issued a report which indicates that Iran unilaterally slowed down its enrichment processes right after President Rouhani was elected last August. The report substantially boosts hope for a negotiated settlement between the P5+1 and Iran since it suggests that Iran made a good faith first step even before the negotiations began. The real question right now is whether the US COngress will interpret the IAEA report in the same way, or decides to increase the sanctions against Iran anyway.
Researchers from the University of Maryland have released an interactive map of the processes of global forest change. The map is quite detailed and one can zoom in on areas as small as 30 meters. The map charts changes in forested land on the planet from 2000-2012, and it shows that the globe has lost forests the size of Mongolia in that time period. But the map shows where progress in protecting forests is occurring as well, giving researchers a good handle on the policies that seem to be effective in stopping deforestation.
There is a continuing protest in Bulgaria that has received little attention in the West. The protests have been spearheaded by students, but they are supported by a wide segment of Bulgarian society. The issues are similar to the protests in other areas of the world: concerns about corruption, the growing inequalities in society, and the general sense that the government has lost touch with the concerns of ordinary citizens. The protests in Bulgaria have become somewhat routine, so it is hard to see an end game. But it is more than likely that the government will at some point try to extinguish the movement.
The details of the P5+1 and Iran negotiations are not known in any specific detail, but The New York Times has an informative graphic on the issues that are being raised and the parameters of a possible agreement. I will not ask any questions about the specific details of the graphic, but a review of the issues can clarify what is being discussed very quickly.
The Palestinian peace negotiators have resigned their posts, and the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks are at a standstill. The negotiators stepped down because the recent Israeli announcements concerning settlements have rendered the talks irrelevant. The timing of the resignations is designed to place pressure on US Secretary of State Kerry at the same time Israel is pressuring Kerry on the Iranian nuclear issue–both sides are competing for US attention to their positions. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said that the negotiators would either return to the negotiations or be replaced.
The reshuffling of Middle East politics continues as Egypt pursues better relations with Russia. It seems as if the Egyptian military is looking to the Russians to supply military weapons after the US decided to cut back on military aid because of the coup against President Morsi. At one point in the 1960s and 1970s, the Russians had very good relations with Egypt, but that phase ended when the Egyptians decided to pursue peace with Israel and the US embraced Egypt as a very strong ally. Now, along with the US-Saudi Arabian alliance, it appears as if the US-Egyptian alliance is weakening.
The European Union is going to do a review of its members’ national economic policies, and attention is particularly focused on its examination of whether Germany’s trade imbalance is damaging the overall economic health of the Union. Some feel that Germany should rely less on exports to boost its economic growth and shift to boosting domestic consumption in the hope that that new consumption would include goods and services produced in other Union state. This issue i a very sensitive one, and the Germans, as the largest contributor to the finances of the Union, will not take an investigation into its economic policies lightly.
The BBC has run a story indicating that there is an emerging cooperative nuclear relationship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Apparently this relationship is long-standing, but it is only being talked about because of Saudi Arabia’s desire to break free of its tight dependence on the US. A nuclear Saudi Arabia would practically assure a nuclear Iran–the Iranians would not easily accept Saudi hegemony in the Gulf region. Shifting alliances always contain high elements of instability. The US will attach great importance to preventing the Saudis from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Far-right protesters in Poland disrupted the country’s celebration of national independence. This year was the third straight year that the right-wing has protested, and each year it has attacked anything that smacked of liberal or left-wing views. This year the protesters burned a rainbow colored arch paying tribute to tolerance and diversity. The protests mirror similar demonstrations all across Europe in recent months.
We have a great deal about how the world is organized into nation-states. People, however, always have multiple identities no matter how hard the nation-state tries to establish citizenship as the primary identity. Social media does not fit easily into the citizenship framework–it can be far more flexible and nuanced (depending on the user). There is a new social media in the nation-state of Kazakhstan that organizes groups by tribal identity, a framework in Kazakhstan that is both ancient and deep. It will be interesting to see if members of the Kazakh tribes outside of Kazakhstan decide to organize themselves by tribe as well.
At times it seemed as if there would be a breakthrough in the negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program, but apparently there was no agreement reached in Geneva. Both sides (the P5+1 and Iran) seem to agree that substantial progress had been made, but that important differences remain. Reports seem to indicate that France was the power that was not satisfied that there were sufficient guarantees that Iran could not at some point develop a nuclear weapon. At this point it is not clear exactly what the issues were, but I am sure that we will find out soon. Talks are scheduled to restart in 10 days. In the meantime, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged the American public to reject the deal. The failure of the talks is potentially very dangerous. If Iran decides that there is no possibility of a negotiated settlement, then there is no reason for it to return to the table.
Malala Yousafzai is a powerful advocate for the education of girls, and her legitimacy as an advocate is unquestioned after her attempted assassination by the Pakistan Taliban. Last October she released a memoir entitled I Am Malala. The All Pakistan Private Schools Management Association, with about 40,000 affiliated schools in Pakistan, has banned the book from its curriculum. The head of the Association claimed that Yousafzai is “a tool in the hands of the Western powers.”
African workers in Saudi Arabia have protested against a crackdown on illegal workers in the Kingdom. The protests have led to violence as the workers, who are treated very poorly to begin with, are threatened with expulsion. The problem of guest workers in all the Persian Gulf countries has been a constant irritant, but the workers really have few opportunities in their home countries. Their treatment in the Gulf states has been exploitative and precarious.
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