The rise of right-wing parties in Europe (and elsewhere) is one of the very troubling consequences of the Great Recession and the subsequent austerity programs. The parallels to the 1930s are suggestive of a political rule: when economic times get tough, people believe that there must be someone to blame and the right-wing usually has a list of suspects: Jews, immigrants, and other “non-native” peoples. The rise of the right-wing in Europe is beginning to get the attention of the political establishment in the region.
The US launched its newest aircraft carrier today, the USS Gerald R. Ford. It is almost impossible to visualize this vessel. It cost $14 billion, weighs 224 million pounds, is about 25 stories high, and is 1,106 feet long and 250 feet wide. The Ford will bring the US up to 10 aircraft carrier groups after the deactivation of the USS Enterprise last year.
Preliminary estimates put the number of killed in the Philippines at around 1,200 as a result of the devastation caused by Typhoon Haiyan. Those numbers will certainly increase as recovery efforts will find more bodies. The storm was one of the strongest to ever make landfall, and the damage is extensive. Many nations are offering help to the Philippines, but recovery will be very slow and expensive.
The body of the late Palestinian leader, Yasir Arafat, was exhumed and recently examined by Swiss, Russian, and French medical experts. Arafat, who died in 2004, was the founder of the Palestine Liberation Organization (now the Palestinian Authority), and, for much of his life, advocated armed struggle to eliminate the state of Israel and return the land to the control of the Palestinian people. in 1993, Arafat accepted the existence of the state of Israel in what are called the Oslo Accords, but the Israelis never forgave him for his use of armed terrorism against Israeli citizens. His death was always suspicious, and the results of the Swiss autopsy suggests that he was poisoned by Polonium-210. The radioactive element has been used in the past to poison individuals, most recently to kill Alexander Litvinenko, a Russian dissident, in 2006. Needless to say, the Palestinians suspect the Israelis of the poisoning, but one should wait for the Russians and the French to release their own, independent, reports.
A report by the European Union’s Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA) showed that anti-Semitism in Europe has risen dramatically over the last five years. The report was based on a poll of European Jews, 76 percent of whom believed that anti-Semitic views has increased and that a third of Jews have considered leaving their countries because of the rise in negative feelings. The increase was largely based in the rise of internet communication and other social media. The findings are particularly troubling in light of the rise of the far-right political parties in Europe.
The buzz in Geneva is getting louder. Not only has US Secretary of State arrived for the negotiations with Iran, but he has been joined by other high officials from Britain, France, and Germany, and the Russian Foreign Minister is now scheduled to join the talks. These are all indications that the negotiations have reached a point where the differences between the two sides have narrowed considerably, but the ones that remain can only be decided at the highest levels of decision-making. It is therefore very difficult to predict success, but one can probably say that success is viewed as a clear possibility. The Israeli Prime Minister, Netanyahu, however, has dismissed the reports and believes that the Iranian position remains unacceptable.
The Philippines is being hit by one of the strongest storms ever recorded. Super Typhoon Haiyan has wind speeds of about 195 miles per hour, with gusts up to 222 mph. Right now it does not appear as if the storm will hit the city of Manila directly, but millions of lives are at risk from this storm. The country has had time to prepare for the typhoon and let’s hope that the preparations are adequate.
Something is clearly happening in the P5+1 and Iran negotiations in Geneva. US Secretary of State Kerry has announced that he will be going to Geneva for the talks. It is very rare for a high-ranking official to make such a decision unless it is believed that some sort of success is likely–high ranking officials rarely wish to be associated with failures. The timing is urgent. Kerry has just finished meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the US Congress will soon take up legislation to increase the sanctions on Iran.
The 75th anniversary of Kristallnacht falls on 9 November. On 9 November 1938, German Jews experienced widespread and coordinated attacks on their property. “Kristallnacht” refers to the sound of the shattered glass from the shop windows that were broken that night. There will be special efforts in Germany to remember the anniversary as the memory of the persecution of Jews seems to be fading, particularly among German young people.
US Secretary of State Kerry was in Jerusalem to meet with the Israeli and Palestinian negotiators. The current talks have been roiled by the Israeli announcement that it was going to build new settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. The settlement issue has been a major obstacle to peace because they encroach on the territory occupied by Israel in the 1967 war. The Palestinians believe that that territory is the basis for their future state; some Israelis believe that that territory is an intrinsic part of Israel. The international community has never recognized the settlements as legal under international law, and today Secretary of State Kerry reaffirmed that judgment: “We consider now and have always considered the settlements to be illegitimate.”
There were explosions from home-made bombs in the northern Shanxi Province of China. Some reports indicate that as many as seven explosions occurred, but there were no official confirmations of that fact. No one or group has claimed responsibility for the blasts and it is hard to determine the significance of these attacks. It is difficult, however, not to think that these explosions may have some link to the recent car crash in Tiananmen Square.
Government spending is a major issue in US politics. Here is a graph that shows spending under each President since 1982. Clinton and Obama are the Democratic Presidents; Reagan, and the two Bushes are the Republican Presidents.
The trial of deposed Egyptian President Morsi began today in a chaotic scene. Supporters of President Morsi protested against the trial and Morsi himself was uncooperative with the proceedings. The decision to try Morsi on charges of incitement to murder was designed to legitimize the coup against Morsi, but it will inevitably erode the legitimacy of the Egyptian state. Egypt faces the highly unusual situation of having two previous Presidents on trial simultaneously. President Mubarak who was deposed in the midst of the Arab Spring is currently also facing a retrial on similar charges. One wonders if such trials can ever be “fair.”
US Secretary of State Kerry is in Saudi Arabia in an attempt to reassure that country of US objectives in the Middle East. Slate magazine conducted an interview with Prince Turki Bin Faisal Al Saud, a key player is Saudi politics about his country’s disappointments with the US. The list is long and substantive, but the concerns are among the most intractable issues imaginable. It is not clear that the US has any clear options in the region that do not unsettle one or more major allies.
There were large rallies in Russia for “National Unity Day” in which the common refrain was “Russia for the Russians.” The anti-immigrant stance of the protesters was deep. Most of the migrants are from Central Asia and the Caucasus region, and it seems as if the anti-immigrant position is influenced by a strong anti-Muslim sentiment.
The car incident in Tiananmen Square in China brought the world’s attention back to the Uighus of Xinjiang Province. China’s primary concern is its territorial integrity and fears a secessionist movement as well as the loss of the rich natural resources of the province. Some Uighurs see greater autonomy as a way of improving their economic conditions; others see greater autonomy as a necessary condition to realize their cultural, including religious, heritage. It appears as if the Chinese have decided to view the agitation for autonomy as a terrorist movement and the repression of the Uighurs is likely to become more severe.
A small group of highly prestigious climate scientists have signed a letter urging a closer examination of the use of nuclear power to avoid global warming. The letter argues that safer alternatives to carbon-based fuels, such as wind and solar power, are insufficient to supply the energy needs of the world’s population, and that using nuclear energy could ease the pressure on continued use of carbon-based fuels. Nuclear energy is a hard sell after the accident in Fukishima, Japan, and many countries, such as Germany moved quickly to shut down their nuclear plans after the Japanese accident. Whether the fears of climate change outweigh the fears of nuclear power remains to be seen.
A statue of Miklos Horthy was unveiled in Budapest, Hungary by supporters of the far-right Jobbik Party. Horthy was the Hungarian leader during World War II, and when Nazi Germany took over Hungary in 1944, he oversaw an uneasy alliance with the Germans. What makes Horthy highly problematic is the fact that most of Jewish Hungarians were expelled and subsequently died in German death camps. Horthy’s role in the expusions has been hotly contested since that time. Some members of the Jobbik Party, Hungary’s third largest, have made explicitly anti-Jewish statements in recent years, and many fear that the unveiling of the statue reveals the true nature of the Jobbiks.
There have been a lot of questions in class about the change is Saudi Arabian foreign policy. I will not ask any questions about this essay on the quiz because it is quite specific and long, but for those of you who are interested in the issue, you can check out this essay published by the Middle East Media Research Institute. I hope you all do read it because the shift in policy (and the corresponding shift by the US) is incredibly important but very difficult to assess–it is a venture into a whole new Middle East order.
Egyptian Defense Minister, General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, was recorded in a leaked audio saying that the Egyptian military should have immunity for all crimes in the new constitution being written. There is a 50-person committee writing the new constitution, but there is no representation from the Muslim Brotherhood. It is difficult to imagine how the constitution can have broad legitimacy given the exclusion of the group that had elected the previous President, Morsi. Nor is it clear that a blanket immunity for the military is justifiable given the fact that the military launched a coup d’etat to displace Morsi. We will have to see how the new constitution is received after it is written.
Spying by the NSA has ignited very strong criticism of the US, but The Guardian reports that European governments coordinated their own spying activities to a large degree. Unfortunately, there is no one like Edward Snowden to leak the details of the spying so it is difficult to assess the degree to which European spying infringes on civil liberties. One can imagine, however, that the Europeans are not likely to be far behind the US in capabilities to spy; the real issue is to what extent European spying conforms to adequate protections of privacy.
The leader of the Pakistan Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan), Hakimullah Mehsud was killed in a US drone strike. His second in command has already been appointed as the new leader in the group. It remains to be seen how the killing will affect the violence in Pakistan. The US likely believes the death to be a setback for the militant group. But Pakistan has been trying to initiate peace talks with the Taliban, and the killing might set back those efforts considerably. It is hard to tell which consideration has the greater likelihood.
Two members of the Golden Dawn in Greece have been assassinated in a drive-by shooting and a third member of the far-right party is in the hospital. The attacks follow a government crackdown on the party, and it has raised fears that the violence may be the prelude to a civil war in Greece. The cycle of violence and counter-violence when a population becomes radicalized is very difficult to stop once it starts. The critical question right now is how the government will respond, and whether that response will reassure the population that the situation is under control.
German-US relations are unusually sour. The revelations about NSA snooping on Angela Merkel have hit a raw nerve for a country that long suffered under totalitarian governments that did not respect civil liberties. But an additional dispute has surfaced after the US criticized German economic policies for relying too much on exports for economic growth at the expense of the other countries in the European Union–the US would prefer that Germany stimulate domestic demand so that economic growth could spread to other countries as well. The Germans have not taken the criticism too well, and their response has been to reject flatly the US charges.
The Central African Republic has not had a fully functional government for several months after a coup overthrew the government. The country has descended into chaos and armed groups are inciting violence between the Christian and Muslim parts of the population. The UN Security Council has issued a report which raises the specter of genocide in the country, but it does not appear as if the Security Council has any substantive plan to intervene to prevent that crime. Unfortunately, there has been little world attention to this problem, and it is unlikely that outside governments will be motivated to offer genuine assistance to the people of the C.A.R.
Syria has met the second major deadline imposed by the Russian-US agreement to disarm Syria’s chemical weapons. The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has examined 21 out of the 23 chemical weapons facilities it had identified, and declared that Syria has destroyed its capability to produce or use chemical weapons. This is a remarkable achievement given the circumstances even though the agreement does nothing to stop the ongoing conventional violence in the country. If the Russians and Americans could show similar commitment to stopping the humanitarian crisis in Syria, then we might have a better chance of saving lives.
There is controversy over the number of civilian deaths associated with the American use of drones in Pakistan. As reported earlier, two human rights groups estimated that about 400 civilians had dies in the strikes. However, the Pakistani government itself published numbers closer to the American estimate: 67 civilian deaths since 2008. There is speculation that the Pakistani government has low-balled its estimates in an attempt to dampen concerns over reports that the Pakistani government has in fact approved the strikes despite its earlier denials.
The International Criminal Court has decided to delay its prosecution of the President of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, for a third time. The charges against Kenyatta are that he fomented ethnic violence in Kenya after the election in 2007. An estimated 1,300 people died in that violence. The Kenyan government has appealed to the UN Security Council to delay any prosecution of Kenyatta while he holds the presidency. Many also suspect that the charges are taking a back seat to the exigencies of the anti-terrorist movement after the violence in the Kenyan shopping mall earlier in the year. It will be interesting to see how the world addresses these issues.
Chinese police have arrested five individuals for the car crash in Tiananmen Square. The five were identified as supporters of the Uighur movement in Northwest China. The Uighurs are Muslims of Turkish descent and many in the region resent rule from Beijing. The attack represents an escalation of the protests by the Uighurs, and we will have to see how the central government responds to the threat.
An Italian magazine is claiming that the US NSA spied on the Vatican. The US government is vigorously denying the report, but after the previous reports that proved to be accurate, the denials lack power. The taps might have been part of a more general sweep of the Italian population, or they may have been targeted to find out information about the financial dealings of the Vatican Bank. The revelation, however, makes a mockery of the idea that the surveillance is essential to national security.
I sometimes read articles that seem to be wildly off-track but, nonetheless, genuinely thought-provoking. This op-ed by Mohammad Pervez Bilgrami suggests that the US is shifting away from its Sunni allies in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan) in order to prepare for the ascent of Shia power and Iranian influence. The scenario seems implausible right now, but there is a long history of US-Iranian cooperation prior to the 1979 Iranian revolution, and, in many respects, Iranian power complements US interests in the region quite nicely. One need only to think about two emerging issues that might make this change more likely: first, the dramatic increase in US domestic oil production freeing the US from the need to support Saudi Arabia; second, the sense that the hold that al-Qaeda adherents have over parts of the Sunni population is a greater threat to the US than the radicals associated with Shia Islam. I still think the scenario is poppycock, but I will keep my mind open. And watch carefully how the US proceeds in the current negotiations with Iran over the nuclear program.
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