19 November 2013   Leave a comment

Twin bombs were exploded outside the Iranian embassy in Beirut, Lebanon.  The  Abdullah Azzam Brigades, an Islamist militant group with ties to Al Qaeda, took responsibility for the blasts and it signifies an escalation of the regional war now being waged by Sunni militants against the Shia supporters of Iran in Syria and Lebanon.  Lebanon’s political system is very complex, reflecting the incredible variety of peoples and groups in the country, and has managed with great difficulty to navigate tremendous political pressures from within.  These explosions threaten the political stability of Lebanon.  We will have to see whether other groups respond in kind to these attacks.

Even though the Chinese economy –one of the few bright spots in the global economy–still continues to grow, fears are beginning to surface about the country’s heavy reliance on debt.  According to some estimates, Chinese debt has grown from 130% of GDP in 2008 to perhaps 250% this year.   Unofficial interest rates (the official interest rate is controlled by the central government) are rising substantially, leading some to fear that borrowers will be unable to repay their debts.  In some respects, this situation mirrors the debt problems in the US and Europe in 2007-08, and there are concerns that a similar crisis might occur in this very important country.

The US and Afghanistan are trying to forge an agreement to govern the conduct of American troops which might remain even after the official end of US combat operations in Afghanistan in 2014.  A similar agreement was sought in Iraq after the US pullout, but both sides failed to agree on whether Iraqi or American law would govern the conduct of US troops.  Consequently, all US soldiers left Iraq.  The discussions in Afghanistan are following the same script and may flounder on the same issue.  The US will not allow its soldiers to conduct operations if they might be prosecuted in Afghan courts, but Afghanistan does not wish to grant immunity to troops who might commit crimes under Afghan law.  A total pullout of US troops will leave Afghanistan in a very difficult situation as it tries to take over security operations for the entire country.

Posted November 20, 2013 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

Leave a comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.