World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

The referendum in Colombia has been defeated.  It is impossible at this point to know what happens next.

There was violence at a festival near a sacred lake in the town of Bishoftu in Ethiopia and as many as 100 people died.  Every October Ethiopia’s Oromo people hold the Irreecha thanksgiving festival at the end of the rainy season.   The Oromo make up about a third of Ethiopia’s population, but the ethnic group feels marginalized, particularly at the hands of another ethnic group, the Tigray.  Feyisa Lilesa, a silver medal winner at the Summer Games in August, demonstrated solidarity with the Oromo people by holding his arms in an X when he crossed the finish line of the Men’s Marathon.   Apparently, the crowds at the festival held their hands in a similar fashion, leading the police to fire tear gas at the celebrants.

Colombians are going to the polls today to vote in a referendum to end the longest guerrilla war in Latin America.  The Colombian government had been fighting the  Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) since 1964.  It has been a bloody and treacherous war with both political and criminal objectives.  The government has promised to initiate an ambitious economic development plan in areas once controlled by the FARC and the FARC has promised to disarm, clear landmines, and get out of the cocaine business.  But the contentious part of the peace agreement revolves around the promise of amnesty if FARC members confess to their crimes before a special tribunal.  We shall see how the people of Colombia resolve this conflict.

Voters in Hungary cast their ballots in a referendum sponsored by Prime Minister Viktor Orban to repudiate the European Union’s policies on refugees.   Voters were ask to vote on the following question: “Do you want the European Union to be able to order the mandatory settlement of non-Hungarian citizens in Hungary without parliament’s consent?”  The vote received 98.2 percent “no” votes, but the turnout for the referendum was only 39.7%, short of the 50% required to constitute a valid vote.  The outcome is curious.  3 million Hugarians voted to repudiate the EU, but many more refused to participate in the vote. A difficult outcome to assess.

Russia has responded to the US declaration that it would not coordinate its activities with Russia in Syria any longer.  The Russians apparently believe that the declaration signals a US intention to take armed action against its ally, the Syrian government.  That outcome is a possibility, but not the one that I believe is likely.  More likely is that the US will step back from Syria and let Russia try to create a viable outcome.  But the Russians left no doubt how they would respond to US attacks against the Syrian government.  According to the Reuters: “Russian news agencies quoted Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova as saying that a U.S. intervention against the Syrian army ‘will lead to terrible, tectonic consequences not only on the territory of this country but also in the region on the whole.'”  The language is unusually strong.

Joachim Kebschull, the mayor of Oersdorf in the German state of Schleswig-Holstein, was attacked by a group opposed to his efforts supporting refugees.  According to the Telegraph: “Hours before the attack, he received a threatening letter which contained the phrases ‘He who will not listen will have to feel’ and ‘Oersdorf for the Oersdorfers’.”  The violence reflects the deepening hostility toward the refugee policies of Chancellor Merkel.

Shares of Deutsche Bank recovered today, but the bank continues to suffer a crisis of confidence as major hedge funds have pulled out their investments.  The recovery is due to a rumor that the US Department of Justice may reduce the $14 billion fine it levied on Deutsche Bank for marketing fraudulent financial products prior to the financial crisis of 2008.   Interestingly, the US government seems willing to cut the bank some slack even at the expense of the harm done to its citizens.  It would be hard, however, to quantify the potential harm that may ensue if the full fine did in fact cause Deutsche bank to collapse.   The speculation is a clear example of how politics and economics are completely intertwined.  Nonetheless, Germany’s second largest bank, Commerzbank, announced that it was laying off nearly 10,000 workers and suspending its dividend.  Chancellor Merkel had earlier announced that the German government would not bail out Deutsche Bank as the US government bailed out its banks in 2008, but it is hard to believe that the government would let the bank collapse.  But the rest of Europe would be bemused as the paragon of financial rectitude bent the rules for its own banks–another example of the strong interpenetration of politics and economics.

The Internet began as a US Department of Defense program shortly after the moon landing in 1969.  Since that time the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) has organized domain names for the internet.  From the beginning, the US government has had a central role in supporting ICANN but that authority lapsed today.  The organization of internet addresses will now be controlled by a private corporation representing various constituencies in the world.  The change will not be noticeable nor will it likely lead to any significant changes in the running of the internet.

Not only has the cease-fire in Syria collapsed, it now appears that American policy in Syria has collapsed as well.  The Russians are stepping up the bombing of Aleppo, apparently free from any diplomatic constraints.  The Russians have decided that the US has no policy in Syria, and that is also has no back-up plan.  There is no evidence for what has happened, but a safe bet would be that President Obama has decided that Russia now owns Syria and that it will have to clean up the mess it has created. Obama’s withdrawal leaves the people of Syria without any options other than to accept President Assad, and there are many in Syria that will not accept that outcome.  Syria seems condemned to a perpetual civil war.

Indian troops crossed into Pakistani-controlled Kashmir to kill suspected militants.   The move comes as tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir continue to escalate after the killing of a Pakistani militant last July.  There has been a cease-fire in place since 2003 between India and Pakistan which seems to be slowly disintegrating.  The two countries have fought three major wars over Kashmir since the division of the British colony of India into India and Pakistan in 1947.  Kashmir is populated primarily by Muslims but parts of Kashmir are controlled by India which has been experiencing a resurgence of Hindu nationalism since the election of Narendra Modi in 2014.

It appears as if the planet has passed a very significant climate milestone: it seems likely that the atmosphere will experience carbon dioxide concentrations of at least 400 parts per million permanently.  The rise assures that climate change will occur and that it is almost exclusively related to human activity: “the atmosphere has warmed the world about 1.8°F since the start of the industrial revolution.”

The Economist‘s most recent issue includes articles on globalization and reflect the magazine’s strong commitment to liberal economics.  One article in particular is a very thoughtful analysis of the recent development of populist politics which seriously question the virtues of free trade, free capital flows, and the free flow of labor through migration.  The article acknowledges the potency of these questions but still comes down hard in favor of market capitalism.

The US Army operates the John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School at Fort Bragg, NC which publishes a journal called Special Warfare.  The October 2015 issue ran an article by Capt. Philip Kapusta entitled “The Gray Zone”.  The article discusses the intrinsic difficulties of conflict situations which “fall between the traditional war and peace duality, are characterized by ambiguity about the nature of the conflict, opacity of the parties involved, or uncertainty about the relevant policy and legal frameworks.” (p. 20)  These conflicts, which fall short of the formal definition of war, seem to be the more likely context for interactions among both states and non-state actors.

The Senate has voted 97-1 to override Obama’s veto of the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act and the House followed with a 348-77 vote.  The bill paves the way for American citizens to sue the Government of Saudi Arabia for damages suffered during the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001.  The bill waives the sovereign immunity of Saudi Arabia in US courts for these damages.  Now we will wait to see if other governments pass similar legislation to waive the sovereign immunity of the US government for their citizens for damages they may have suffered in events such as drone attacks.

A Dutch-led criminal investigation into the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 has found that the missile that brought down the civilian airplane in Ukraine was fired by either Russian or Russian-supported rebels in Ukraine.   According to Reuters:

“….the plane was hit by a Russian-made Buk-9M38 missile; the missile was fired from the rebel-held village of Pervomaysk in eastern Ukraine; and the launcher was transported into Ukraine from Russia.”

Russia has vehemently denied being involved.

For about a year, Saudi Arabia has been waging a relentless economic war against Iran by refusing to cut its oil production and thereby forcing oil prices to fall significantly.  The economic war is simply Saudi Arabia’s response to the growing influence of Iran in Middle Eastern affairs.  But the war also imposes heavy costs on Saudi Arabia.  Long known for its generosity toward those who work for the Saudi Government, Saudi Arabia has been forced to do an about face and has reduced government salaries by 20%.  The Saudi game may be becoming too risky to pursue.

Nigeria has been wracked by the terror activities of Boko Haram in the northeastern corner of the country, as the group tries to impose its own version of Islam on the population.  Nigeria has also experienced a sharp upswing in violent acts by the population in the southern delta region, as that population has become more demanding for a fairer share of the country’s oil revenues.  A third zone of conflict has recently developed as a nomadic people known as the Fulani have been forced out of their traditional habitats by the violence perpetrated by Boko Haram.  Nigeria does not seem to be able to stabilize its diverse and dynamic populations.

A highly simplified ethnic map of Nigeria

The International Monetary Fund under the leadership of Christine Lagarde has gone through a very interesting transformation.  Ordinarily, the IMF has always been viewed as an unabashed supporter of neoliberal economic policies.  But the IMF has begun to publish studies which seem highly critical of the support of harsh economic policies.  The most recent publication of the IMF on trade suggests that some of the staff at the IMF have a very critical view of the benefits of free trade.

There is a quiet crisis occurring in the global economy.  Deutsche Bank is one of the world’s most important banks in the world, but over the last few months its stock price has been declining because investors are concerned that the bank does not have sufficient capital to cover its obligations.  Over the weekend, German Chancellor Merkel announced that no German government money could be used to bail out the bank.  Today, Deutsche Bank’s stock price essentially tanked.  The sharp decline is reminiscent of the decline in the stock price of Lehman Brothers (a major US investment bank) prior to its dissolution in 2008 and the onset of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.  We should keep our eyes on the stock prices of banks in Germany (and Italy).

We have discussed the rise of right-wing politics in many places in the world, but no where is the rise more apparent than in Europe.  Insecurity has increased dramatically among most populations in Europe and are associated with the economic turmoil of the Great Recession and the perceived threats from  terrorists and immigrants.  The Guardian is a reliably left-wing newspaper in Great Britain and it has published an editorial on the threat of populist politics in France.

Avoiding climate change is the most urgent security issue facing humanity, but we seem to be unwilling to take the issue seriously.  Many countries have announced specific initiatives to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, but as of now those measures seem inadequate.  Moreover, it has grown increasingly clear that very few countries have a clear idea of their contributions to the problem.  It also seems clear that we have seriously underestimated the role of gases like methane to the crisis facing the species.

In unusually blunt language, the UK and US Ambassadors to the UN Security Council accused Russia of committing war crimes in Syria.  The charges are quite obviously serious and not to be made lightly, but it appears as if the US and Great Britain have decided that there is nothing to be gained by working with Russia for a cease-fire in Syria.  Non-governmental groups have made similar charges, but those lack the gravity of an official government censure.  Russia denied the charges, and nothing will come of them now.  But it seems as if the West is preparing for a different game once Russia succeeds in restoring Syrian President Assad to power.

Oman Air found itself in a serious tussle after it used a map that labeled the Persian Gulf, instead of the Arabian Gulf.  Most of the world refers to the body of water between Saudi Arabia and Iran as the Persian Gulf, but Arab states have historically rejected that appellation.  The issue may seem trivial, but the passions it ignites are quite real.  History quite clearly favors the use of the Persian Gulf.

The Republika Srpska is a curious artifact of the difficulties of mapping nations onto states.  When Yugoslavia disintegrated in 1992, there was an extraordinary outburst of violence as new states emerged from the shell of the old Yugoslavia.  The three most prominent new states were Croatia, Serbia, and Bosnia.  But within the new state of Bosnia, there was a northern enclave of Serbs that declared themselves independent rather than be integrated into the Muslim dominated Bosnia.  The world tolerated the emergence of the Republika Srpska (Serb Republic) in order to avoid further bloodshed, and those Serbs would love to be united with the state of Serbia.  They are currently agitating to establish their independence from Bosnia and there is a danger that more ethnic violence could emerge as it did in the 1990s.

There are about 10,000 people living in an informal refugee camp in Calais, France.  The refugees are from all over the world and are camped out hoping for an opportunity to catch a ride through the Chunnel to Great Britain.  The risks are great for the refugees but Great Britain remains the place with the greatest opportunities for displaced people.  The camp, however, is a dangerous place and French authorities have vowed to remove all the people there within weeks.  There are about 1,000 unaccompanied children in the camp and no one knows what will happen to them.

Refugee Camp, Calais

Ireland has some of the most restrictive abortion laws in Europe, but thousands have protested in the country for a repeal of the laws–most notably the 1983 amendment to the Constitution giving the fetus equal rights to the mother.  In Poland, on the other hand, thousands have marched to make the country’s restrictive abortion laws even more restrictive, banning the procedure even to save the life of the mother.  The degree to which human rights are contested in the world is truly remarkable.

Protests at South African universities have been ongoing for over a year.  The protests are targeting dramatic increases in university fees, but they also represent a growing sense within South African young people that the university system is not serving their interests well.  In many respects, the university system reflects the inequities within South Africa as a whole and it seems clear that South African leaders are profoundly out of touch with their young people.