In an outcome that will certainly discomfort Russia, the pro-Western party, Georgian Dream, won a decisive victory in the national parliamentary elections. Georgia was once part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, but has had a very tense relationship with Russia since its independence in 1991. Russia invaded the country in 2008 and wrested control of two parts of the country, creating two new countries (which have never been recognized by most countries in the world): South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The invasion was precipitated by the same fear that led Russia to invade Crimea in 2014: overtures from NATO and the EU for closer ties. Georgia walks a very difficult line given its geographic proximity to Russia.
“Overall, the researchers found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for just over half of the total observed increase in fuel dryness since 1979. In turn, this influence has added more than 16,000 square miles of forest fire area to the western United States since 1984 — an area larger than the state of Maryland— nearly doubling the area scientists might have expected without the influence of similar climate change.”
The relationship between climate change and wildfires is certain to become more pronounced as global temperatures rise. It remains to be seen whether the relationship can be tested in other areas of the world.
“The Bank for International Settlements raised alarm bells last month over China’s “credit to GDP gap”. The key gauge of banking risk is currently at a record high of above 30, and much higher than levels seen in the run up to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.”
The Chinese government has the financial reserves to cover many of these debts but the use of these reserves would signal a serious crisis and likely lead to a decline in confidence in the Chinese economy.
The IMF has warned that the global economy is running a serious risk by allowing debt levels to rise to about $152 trillion. That amount is twice the size of the entire global GDP. The rapid rise of debt is troubling because it has not been accompanied by a rise in economic activity. Debt levels are not necessarily a problem as long as the debt is being used to stimulate future economic activity which allows the debt to be repaid. Debt in the absence of economic growth is a bubble waiting to burst–at some point, the creditors are going to demand to be repaid.
The South Asian movie industry is one of the most dynamic in the world and certainly the largest. It has, however, fallen victim to the crisis over Kashmir. Indian movies have been banned in Pakistan and Pakistani actors and technicians have been banned in India. The Pakistani bans renew policies that were once quite common, but the line between art and politics seems to have become very blurred because of the crisis.
It is hard to appreciate the devastation in Haiti. We still have only an incomplete picture of the damage brought about by Hurricane Matthew. What we do know is that Haiti is likely the least capable country in the Western Hemisphere to deal with the destruction. Many areas of the country are still inaccessible because of damage to the transportation infrastructure. Some humanitarian relief is arriving in the country, but without a central government able to allocate and distribute the aid effectively, it is hard to imagine that the aid can be immediately effective. The biggest fear right now is the spread of disease due to the lack of clean water. Having said all that, it is hard to explain why the international community has been so slow to react to this crisis–the tepid response thus far will alleviate very little of the suffering.
Politics in the US is often (incorrectly) defined in liberal/conservative terms. The distinction is misleading because in political theory “liberal” refers to a special attitude toward the role of the individual society: liberal politics maximizes human freedom, a position often attributed to “conservative” thinkers in the US. Not only is the distinction misleading, it also seems to be increasing irrelevant. A more meaningful distinction has emerged over the last 8 years. Political controversies are better understood from the perspective of an attitude toward globalization. Attitudes toward trade, immigration, and refugees are the issues being contested most directly today.
The UN Security Council discussed two competing resolutions on the Syrian civil war, but ultimately rejected both. The Russian resolution called for a separation of extremist and moderate forces in Syria but did not call for a bombing halt against the city of Aleppo. That resolution only received four affirmative votes. The French resolution, which called for a truce on the bombing of Aleppo and for humanitarian aid, received 11 affirmative votes, but was vetoed by the Russians. The Russians have used the veto power on five Syrian resolutions in the last five years.
The Guardian has a fascinating piece on Iranian objectives in Iraq and Syria. The US and Iran are silent allies in this conflict. Both want the defeat of Daesh (the Islamic State). But Iranian aspirations are to develop a corridor of control from Tehran to the Mediterranean. If Iran were to gain control over such a corridor using Syria and the Kurds as allies, it would certainly shift the balance of power in the Middle East away from the Sunni states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Egypt. The US would be confronted with difficult decisions if such a shift were to occur.
Marjory was a student in the very first class I ever taught at MHC in 1976. She has been a tireless advocate for human rights and the human spirit her entire life.
Haiti was devastated by Hurricane Matthew. Latest reports have about 800 people killed by the storm, and an estimated $1 billion worth of damage. That may not sound like much to a rich country, but it reflects about 11% of Haiti’s GDP. Proportionately, it would be like the US suffered about $1.2 trillion worth of damage. It is also likely that there will be continuing side effects from the storm, most likely the spread of cholera due to the lack of appropriate sanitation facilities.
“These thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process. Such activity is not new to Moscow—the Russians have used similar tactics and techniques across Europe and Eurasia, for example, to influence public opinion there. We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia’s senior-most officials could have authorized these activities.”
The specificity of the accusation clearly indicates the the US government is thinking about its response. The Russians, for their part, indicated that they are thinking about re-opening former air bases in Cuba and Vietnam, in addition to its new air base in Syria. It’s not clear, however, that either Cuba or Vietnam would welcome such a move. Coincidentally, today if Putin’s birthday!!!
The European Union has raised tariffs on certain types of Chinese-made steel by almost 74%. The EU believes that the Chinese are “dumping” the steel in an effort to keep their steel mills operating at high capacity. Dumping means that the Chinese are selling their steel at a loss, and the tariff is designed to compensate for the artificially low price. The Chinese government is presumably subsidizing their steel mills so that no workers need to be fired. Dumping is an economic strategy to drive the domestic producers of the same product out of business; once those producers are bankrupt, the exporting country will then raise its prices to a more profitable level. We will have to see what the Chinese reaction to the EU move will be.
China’s economy has become a critical component of the global economy. As it became a dominant producer and exporter of manufactured goods, Chinese economic growth played a critical role in stimulating the overall global economy even as it decimated the manufacturing sectors of some well-established economies such as the US. China has played out that phase of its economic growth and is now trying to create an economy that is fueled by its own domestic economy. The transition will be difficult and creates huge risks for the global economy, particularly as the Chinese government uses debt to substitute for demand for its exports. The whole world has a stake in making sure that the transition is facilitated and that the integration of the Chinese economy proceeds seamlessly.
US policy in Syria is currently in flux and there is growing sentiment that the US has a humanitarian responsibility in the civil war. There is no question that the US has an obligation to use its considerable power to protect innocent civilians. But the moral obligation needs to have some form of operational possibility. We should be very careful about how we think about what would constitute an effective humanitarian mission that does not also carry with it the possibility of a wider war. Micah Zenko has a very good essay in Foreign Policy which asks some very pointed questions. Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson wrote an op-ed for the New York Times which actually warns against a humanitarian intervention.
The use of social media is a new phenomenon for many of us and I continue to be surprised at how information is being communicated by official state organs. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has its own Facebook page, and in a post put out today, it warned US and other allied forces that it had issued orders to its forces manning the anti-aircraft systems in Syria (c-300 and p-300 systems which are top of the line) to take whatever measures are necessary to protect themselves. (The page can be translated by Google) In a more pointed warning, it suggested that the anti-aircraft systems will not have the time to identify their targets before they shoot. In other words, they will shoot without warning. The rhetoric between the US and Russia continues to escalate. At this time I still believe that we are watching a war of words and that there is no intent to start a great power war. But the risk of an accidental war continues to increase. We need to remeber that the US accidentally attacked a Syrian army outfit on 17 September.
One of the more vexing questions in world politics concerns the authenticity and integrity of the idea of human rights. There is little question that every society that has ever existed has held ideas about what constitutes human rights. But in the contemporary world, it is difficult to separate the current articulation of human rights from the power position of the former European powers, including the United States. There are very legitimate questions about how human rights might be defined if somehow they could be articulated without the element of power.
I continue to fret over US policy in Syria. The Washington Post is reporting that there is sentiment in the State Department and the Pentagon for what are described as “kinetic” actions (a euphemism for blowing things up). Apparently, some members of the Administration believe that deserting the “moderate” rebels in Syria will drive them into the hands of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. That possibility is real, but I am not certain how the US can “save” the moderate rebels as long as Russia, the Syrian government, and Iran are committed to destroying any opposition to the Assad regime. The real danger to the US is that by not intervening the US will leave the civilians of Syria vulnerable to the destruction these states are willing to inflict on them. That failure will forever be a stain on the reputation of the US, but I cannot conceptualize any actions that the US could take at this time to protect those civilians.
We have witnessed a sharp rise in nationalist sentiments all over the world in the last 15 years. The rise is in many respects a backlash against globalization and is comprehensible in that context. But one interesting feature of globalization is the degree to which citizens develop a sense of commitment to people all over the world and not just to their fellow citizens. Some of these people define themselves as “citizens of the world.” Global Scan conducted an 18 nation survey of attitudes toward people of other countries, races, and ethnicities. The results of the survey are fascinating as one of the charts from the survey (below) indicates. I highly recommend the site.
I rarely post about natural events like hurricanes, but Haiti is currently being pummeled by Hurricane Matthew. Haiti is one of the poorest countries in the world and has never recovered from the devastating earthquake of 2010. The government of Haiti is not capable of addressing the problems that the people of Haiti will likely face, and the international community has not done nearly enough to support the long-suffering population. Haiti is particularly vulnerable to a natural catastrophe like a hurricane because the country has been so deforested that heavy rains inevitably cause mudslides, disease, and destruction. We should do everything to encourage the international community to come to Haiti’s aid as quickly as is possible.
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte told US President Obama to “go to hell” as he accused the US of refusing to sell advanced weaponry to the Philippines. He also said that Russia and CHina were willing to supply the Philippines with advanced weaponry and that he would go to them for help. The growing rift between the US and the Philippines is intriguing because it comes at a time when the Philippines is contesting China’s role in the South China Sea and it needs US support to advance its interests. It could be the case that Duterte believes that he can reach a mutually acceptable agreement with China on the South China Sea, but he does so at the risk of alienating the other Southeast Asian countries involved in the dispute.
Iraq and its allies, including the US, Iran, and Turkey, are getting close to launching a major battle to take back the city of Mosul from Daesh (the Islamic State) control. The city symbolizes the apex of Daesh power as it was able to rout Iraqi forces from the city. The battle will be conducted in phases and will likely take several months. As always, the civilians stranded in Mosul will likely be the ones that will suffer the most from the siege. One can only hope that the combatants will allow the civilians to flee the city before the battle intensifies.
India has signed the Paris climate change agreement. It is the 62nd country to do so and the signature is significant. The agreement was designed so that it would not come into effect until 55 countries signed it and only when those 55 countries account for 55% of the emission of greenhouse gases. India’s accession brings the total emissions up to 52% of the global amount, not yet enough to activate the agreement, but close enough to inspire hope. If India had not signed, there was probably no way for the agreement to come into effect. Now the pressure is on the countries that have yet to sign on.
Iraq is the first country to respond to the passage of the Justice Against Sponsor of Terrorism Act (JASTA) which allows American citizens to sue Saudi Arabia for damages incurred in the attack on 11 September 2001. Stephanie Ross DeSimone has initiated a suit against Saudi Arabia for the death of her husband who was on the flight that was crashed into the Pentagon. A group in Iraq has asked the Iraqi Parliament to pass a similar law which will allow Iraqi citizens to sue the US government for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The can of worms has definitely been opened.
The US has broken off diplomatic discussions with the Russians, and the question is whether the rupture signals a decision by the US to step up its efforts to support the rebels opposing Syrian President Assad. The Russians certainly believe this to be the case. If the US does intend to more openly oppose Assad, then a confrontation with the Russians will be hard to avoid. On the other hand, the decision not to deal with the Russians may simply indicate that the US has decided not to become more involved in Syria and to accept President Assad. The latter course of action would undoubtedly be view as a defeat for the US and a victory for the Russians. But much depends on how one defines the US national interest in Syria. As long as the Russians continue the fight against the Islamic State, then that objective can be served. But the humanitarian objective of defending the Syrian people against Assad would be completely lost. A third objective could simply be to thwart Russian objectives in the Middle East, and that interest would also be lost. Which of these three considerations is most important to President Obama?
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