Michael Klare, our colleague at Hampshire College, has written a provocative essay for Le Monde Diplomatique. It is entitled “Sleepwalking into a big war” and Michael assesses the likelihood that the world is paying insufficient attention to the forces that the major powers are cultivating that could culminate in an unexpected great power war. I don’t think the situation is as serious as Michael apparently does, but there is no question that we are moving in that direction.
Scientists believe that the sea ice in the Arctic reached its minimum extent on 10 September and it appears to have tied 2007 as the second lowest level recorded. 2012 remains the smallest sea ice ever recorded by far. The sea ice is far below the median levels recorded between 1981-2010. The Arctic continues to be the area of the world most affected by climate change.
The International Monetary Fund has done an analysis of the conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa (there will not be any questions on the quiz about the report specifically) and, not surprisingly, found that the costs are devastating, not only for the countries directly involved, but also for surrounding countries. The proposition might seems obvious, but it is very important to quantify the costs so that we can speak more intelligently about what happens when the world decides to resort to violence to solve problems.
The Northwest Passage through the Arctic Ocean has been the dream of many explorers since it would avoid the lengthy transit through Tierra del Fuego or (much later) through the Panama Canal. Ice pack has restricted the use of the Northwest Passage through much of modern history, but that seems about to change with global warming. China intends to use the Northwest Passage extensively since it cuts off many days of ocean traffic to European markets. But the crucial question for the world is whether the Northwest Passage will be considered an international strait or a passage through Canadian territory.
The International Criminal Court was established in 2002 and it was hailed as an important step forward in the prosecution of war crimes and crimes against humanity. In truth, the record of the ICC has been mixed in terms of its effectiveness, but its failures have been due to the lack of support from many nation-states–including the US which refuses to sign the ICC treaty. Nonetheless, the ICC has announced that it is enlarging its mandate to include environmental crimes as a subset of crimes against humanity. The expansion could offer tremendous protections against what are known as landgrabs, where states award private corporations certain land rights that intrude upon traditional uses of land by indigenous peoples.
In response to the joint Russian-Chinese naval exercises in the South China Sea, Japan and the US have announced that they will be holding joint naval exercises in the Sea as well. There will be many armed vessels in the South China Sea–let us hope that the rules of engagement are well understood by all sides so that there are no misunderstandings.
Violence has erupted in the Indian city of Bengaluru over a dispute over water rights from a river. India’s Supreme Court ordered Karnataka state, in which Bengaluru is situated, to release water from the Cauvery River to Tamil Nadu state. The dispute is over a century old and is emblematic of the likelihood of an increased number of such conflicts in the future. Water is going to be the most fought over resource of the future.
The US has agreed to give Israel $3.8 billion a year over the next ten years. It is the largest foreign aid package ever approved and represents an increase from the $3.1 billion the US has been giving Israel over the last ten years. There are some changes to the aid program, however. Israel will be required to spend the money on weapons program produced by American manufacturers. The deal was approved even though the relationship between US President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is remarkably unfriendly. The deal relieves the next President from having to negotiate from a position of relative weakness. Needless to say, pro-Palestinian groups oppose the deal since there has been no progress toward a two-state solution which is the US preferred policy position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The European Union is under tremendous strain with the British vote to exit and the rise of several right-wing, anti-immigrant parties on the continent. Some of its members have taken strong measures to keep refugees out and, in the process, have violated EU rules and international law. In an unusual move, Luxembourg’s foreign minister has suggested that Hungary should be kicked out of the EU for its treatment of refugees.
North Korea has suffered serious flooding which has left thousands of people homeless and facing food shortages. The crisis comes just as the North Korean government faces sharp criticism for its fifth nuclear test. The situation raises a profound ethical question. Clearly the people of North Korea are not responsible for the decisions of their government, so should they suffer for those decisions? Or should aid be withheld from the people in order to coerce the government to change its policies?
China and Russia have started an eight-day naval exercise in the South China Sea that includes a drill to seize an island. Joint training exercises are not unusual but there is no mistaking the political statement being made. The question is whether the desire to demonstrate the capability to seize an island in any reflects an intention to do so. An international tribunal at the Hague ruled earlier this year that Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea are null and void, but the strategic interests of China in controlling the Sea are obvious. Interestingly, the suit against China was brought by the Philippines, but the election of a new President, Duterte, has changed the stance of the Philippines vis-a-vis the US.
Last August tied the record books for the hottest month ever recorded (the records only go back to the 1880s). August was the 11th straight record-setting month (we had suspected that the streak would have been broken since July is typically the hottest month of the year). So far, 2016 is 1.31° C warmer than the average of 1881-1910, perilously close to the 1.5° C target agreed upon in Paris earlier this year. The world is running out of time to meet that target.
One should not be overly optimistic, but US and Russian diplomats have announced a one-week cessation of hostilities that appears to have the support of several (but not all) of the rebel forces in Syria. The civil war in Syria, which has been going on since 2011, has been an unmitigated humanitarian disaster with over 350,000 people killed–mostly civilians. The cease-fire does not include any mention of an outline for a peace agreement, the most critical element of which will be the status of current President Assad who the Russians support and the Americans oppose. One hopes that humanitarian assistance can flow into Syria during the cease-fire and that further steps toward peace can be articulated.
Moves toward independence have been building for several years in the Spanish region of Catalonia, and a major protest in favor of secession from Spain was held yesterday. The movement for independence comes from a sense among Catalans that Spain takes more economically from the region than it returns, as well as from the sense among Catalans that they are genuinely different from Spaniards as a whole. However, Spain’s constitution does not permit secession (similar to the US constitution) and any such move would likely be greeted with armed force to repress the “rebellion.”
There is an argument being made in the current US presidential campaign which deserves close analysis: the claim that the US should have “taken” the oil in Iraq after it invaded the country in 2003. Those who make the argument suggest that is war “anything is legal.” Historically, there was always a “right of conquest” which seems to be the underlying assumption of the assertion. However, that right is abrogated by any country which signs the United Nations Charter which states in its preamble: “to ensure, by the acceptance of principles and the institution of methods, that armed force shall not be used, save in the common interest”. It may be the case that the candidate making the argument wishes the withdraw the US from the United Nations, but until that event occurs, the US has no right to seize any resource through war.
North Korea has exploded its fifth nuclear bomb. The explosion was far larger than the previous four tests conducted by North Korea, and registered a 5.3 magnitude earthquake according to the US Geological Survey. More troubling, North Korea claimed, although the claim cannot be verified, that this test was of a smaller nuclear bomb, one capable of being place in a warhead that could be carried by a ballistic missile. If true, North Korea now has to capability to threaten many states in East Asia and potentially any state reachable by one of its submarines.
The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, one of the most prestigious and long-lived citizens groups focused on world politics, has released the results of a poll that genuinely surprised me. One of the themes of the current presidential campaign in the US is a strong anti-trade, anti-globalization attitude. But the Council conducted a poll last June that shows:
“Two out of three (65%) Americans say that globalization, especially the increasing connections of our economy with others around the world, is mostly good for the United States (compared to 34% who say that it is mostly bad), with majorities across the political spectrum expressing a positive view.”
More curiously, Republicans showed less support for free trade than democrats, a result totally at odds with the rhetoric of many of the leading spokespersons of the party. It is going to take me a while to parse the real meaning of these results.
On the issue of trade, we have clear evidence that the global trading network is unquestionably slowing down. The Hanjin shipping company, one of the world’s largest cargo companies, has filed for bankruptcy, leaving billions of dollars of goods floating on the oceans as many harbormasters refuse to allow them to dock for fear that the cargo ships could not pay the docking fees. There are far too many container ships afloat today for the amount of goods that need to be transported. It is not likely that global trade will pick up any time soon.
It is very difficult to keep perspective when emotions are running high. Such is the case with the issue of terrorism: given its unique type of horror, we tend to exaggerate its risk. The facts suggest that our concern with terrorism is misplaced. The chances of being a victim of homicide in the US is about one in 20,000. The chances of being a victim of terrorism is about one in 56 million.
The President of the Philippines referred to President Obama as the “son of a whore” which led to President Obama cancelling a meeting with him. The history of diplomacy is replete with insults, some of which are very funny and quite vulgar. I did a quick search of diplomatic insults and came up with what has to be classified as the all-time number one. It is the reply of the Zaporozhian Cossacks to the Sultan of the Ottoman Empire, Mehmed IV in 1676. Mehmed sent the following message to the Cossacks (sounds like the Game of Thrones):
Sultan Mehmed IV to the Zaporozhian Cossacks:
As the Sultan; son of Muhammad; brother of the sun and moon; grandson and viceroy of God; ruler of the kingdoms of Macedonia, Babylon, Jerusalem, Upper and Lower Egypt; emperor of emperors; sovereign of sovereigns; extraordinary knight, never defeated; steadfast guardian of the tomb of Jesus Christ; trustee chosen by God Himself; the hope and comfort of Muslims; confounder and great defender of Christians – I command you, the Zaporogian Cossacks, to submit to me voluntarily and without any resistance, and to desist from troubling me with your attacks.
–Turkish sultan Mehmed IV
The Cossacks sent the following reply:
Zaporozhian Cossacks to the Turkish Sultan!
O sultan, Turkish devil and damned devil’s kith and kin, secretary to Lucifer himself. What the devil kind of knight are you, that can’t slay a hedgehog with your naked arse? The devil excretes, and your army eats. You will not, you son of a bitch, make subjects of Christian sons; we’ve no fear of your army, by land and by sea we will battle with thee, fuck your mother.
You Babylonian scullion, Macedonian wheelwright, brewer of Jerusalem, goat-fucker of Alexandria, swineherd of Greater and Lesser Egypt, pig of Armenia, Podolian thief, catamite of Tartary, hangman of Kamyanets, and fool of all the world and underworld, an idiot before God, grandson of the Serpent, and the crick in our dick. Pig’s snout, mare’s arse, slaughterhouse cur, unchristened brow, screw your own mother!
So the Zaporozhians declare, you lowlife. You won’t even be herding pigs for the Christians. Now we’ll conclude, for we don’t know the date and don’t own a calendar; the moon’s in the sky, the year with the Lord, the day’s the same over here as it is over there; for this kiss our arse!
– koshovyi otaman Ivan Sirko, with the whole Zaporozhian Host.
The event was captured by the artist Ilja Jefimowitsch Repin in 1891.
The Zaparozhye Cossacks Writing a Mocking Letter to the Turkish Sultan
*oil on canvas
*358 × 203 cm
*signed b.c.: И.Репин 1880-91
Researchers have published a paper in Current Biology which assesses the health of “wilderness” areas on the planet. The results are sobering. Wilderness is a difficult concept to operationalize, but the authors believe that there are still intact areas in North America, North Asia, Africa, and Australia. Nonetheless, the planet has lost about 9% of its wilderness areas over the last two decades, with the greatest losses in South America and Africa. The authors conclude: “The continued loss of wilderness areas is a globally significant problem with largely irreversible outcomes for both humans and nature: if these trends continue, there could be no globally significant wilderness areas left in less than a century.”
On 8 July, a leader of the protest movement against Indian control of parts of Kashmir, Burhan Wai, was killed by Indian security forces. Since that time there have been numerous protests against Indian control of a primarily Muslim population. The strife has been omnipresent since the division of India into Muslim-dominated Pakistan and Hindu-dominated India, but it flares up periodically into violent protests. The recent spate of protests is related to a sense of hopelessness among Muslim Kashmiris over the rule of an India ruled by the nationalist government of Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist. It is remarkable how little attention the Western press pays to this conflict.
The hajj begins this weekend. The pilgrimage to Mecca is one of the Five Pillars of Islam and all Muslims who are physically and financially able are expected to make the pilgrimage at least once in their lives. Mecca is in Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia, but many of the pilgrims will be from Iran, a Shia-dominated country. The two states are divided more by geopolitics than by religion, but both use religion to contest each other’s influence in the Muslim world. And each accuse the other of being un-Islamic.
The Ka’bah in Mecca
Austria has threatened to sue Hungary if the country refused to take back migrants who crossed their mutual border. The Austrian state is under pressure by the success of the anti-immigrant Freedom Party which has taken a very hard line against the flow of refugees into Europe. Disagreements among European Union members about migrant policies are tearing the Union apart.
Cultural diversity seems to be an issue in polities all over the planet. Politicians are raising the specter of disloyal “outsiders”, a term that is ambiguous and certainly misleading. Immigration concerns are only the tip of the iceberg–questions are being raised about the authenticity of citizens who believe in a specific religion or who speak a different language. In a globalized world, these types of distinctions are meaningless to a discussion of what it means to be a citizen. The range of attitudes toward “others” is quite striking across different cultures.
José Manuel Barroso was the President of the European Commission but was recently appointed to be a non-executive chairman of Goldman Sachs. In his new capacity, Barroso will be advising Goldman Sachs on the possibilities for investments in Europe, topics about which he may have had exclusive and possibly confidential information in his prior role. The conflict of interest is apparent to many, including the Ombudsman of the European Union. While no laws were broken, it seems clear that this incident is but the most recent example of the revolving door between politics and powerful private economic interests.
Cyberwarfare is only dimly understood as it is just a recent addition to the arsenal of states. We know very little about the technical capabilities of adversaries and even less about the vulnerabilities of incredibly complex societies. The evidence about recent Russian hacking of various election sites in the US is one example of how mysterious the process is. Even though there appears to be little doubt that the hackers reside in Russia, we do not know if they are operating under orders from the government. We also have no idea of the purpose of the hacking. One possibility, which is actually a lethal blow to the idea of representative democracy, is that the hackers simply want the American people to mistrust the outcome of elections. If people cannot be certain that the election results are valid, then the principle of governance itself is open to question.
Philippines President Duterte is scheduled to meet with US President Obama in a side meeting of the annual Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) conference. Duterte fears that Obama will raise the issue of human rights since almost 2.400 alleged drug dealers and criminals have been killed in vigilante-style justice since Duterte’s election. The issue clouds the usually strong relationship between the US and the Philippines–it is difficult to see either one successful in the region without the help of the other.
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has issued a report on the effects of climate change on the world’s oceans and its conclusions are sobering. The oceans act as a great sink for excess heat in the atmosphere. According to The Guardian:
“The ocean has absorbed more than 90% of the extra heat created by human activity. If the same amount of heat that has been buried in the upper 2km of the ocean had gone into the atmosphere, the surface of the Earth would have warmed by a devastating 36C, rather than 1C, over the past century.”
Oceans temperatures remain a big unknown in the calculations of the climate models. But these results begin to give us a sense of what might be happening.
Hong Kong was returned to the control of the government in Beijing in 1997. As part of the handover of the former British colony was made in a deal that guaranteed that certain political freedoms in Hong Kong would be retained until the year 2047. Many in the city have worried that the Communist Party seeks to erode those freedoms and to place the city under the same type of single-party rule as is the case in the rest of the country. In the most recent municipal elections, the student leaders of a protest movement in 2014 called the Umbrella Movement, won seats on the Legislative Council. The election assures that there will continue to be enough votes in the Council to preserve the political freedoms in Hong Kong.
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