The Pew Research Center has done a study on middle class fortunes in Europe and has found a mixed bag. The US has sesen a steady decline in middle class households from 61% of the population in 1970 to 50% in 2015. The situation in Europe is less uniform:
“The fortunes of the middle classes in Western Europe’s largest economies are moving in opposite directions. From 1991 to 2010, the shares of adults living in middle-income households increased in France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, but shrank in Germany, Italy and Spain.”
The study also found that the discrepancy between the middle class and the upper class in the US was significantly greater than in Europe. New research published in Science also confirms the negative trends in the US. That study found that the percentage of children who made more money than their parents fell from 90% for children born in 1940 to 50% for children born in the 1980s. That decline in income mobility completely contradicts the idea of the “American Dream”.
Foreign Policy magazine has obtained documents which outline President Trump’s budget proposals for foreign assistance. The plans call for a merger of the Agency for International Development into the State Department and for some rather drastic cuts in the levels of foreign assistance to poor countries. The proposal would likely cripple the technical parts of AID. It is not clear that the Congress will go along with these proposals, but, according to the article,
“…..the agency still anticipates that the budget proposal will necessitate eliminating 30 to 35 of its field missions while cutting its regional bureaus by roughly 65 percent. USAID currently operates in about 100 countries.”
The health programs of the AID may be reduced by as much as 25 percent.
The US has slapped tariffs on imports of Canadian lumber. The US accuses of Canada of unfair trading practices because it believes that the price of timber in Canada is artificially low because forest lands are owned by the provinces whereas American timber is grown on privately owned land. The Canadian prices are in fact lower, but that is because Canadians have decided that their forests should not be part of a profit-making enterprise. Such is their sovereign right. Whether that decision should be interpreted as an “unfair” trading practice will likely be determined by the World Trade Organization.
Van Jackson is an analyst who has special expertise on North Korea and he has written an article on how the North Korean theory of deterrence maps onto the theory of deterrence held by US Secretary of Defense Mattis. Unfortunately, there is evidence that both theories rest heavily on demonstration effects which suggests that in a crisis both sides are inclined to use force to show resolve. Given that in the current situation, both the US and North Korea have amassed a lot of weaponry to shoe resolve, this tendency might be a dangerous way to proceed. We are getting conflicting information about China’s attitude toward the US actions. US President Trump has indicated that China is being very helpful. But the Global Times has an article which suggests that the Chinese are quite nervous about the US military build-up near North Korea. According to the article:
“China strongly opposes actions that violate United Nations Security Council resolutions, Xi said, adding that China hopes the parties concerned will exercise restraint and avoid actions that aggravate tensions on the peninsula, the Xinhua News Agency reported.”
The article also reports that North Korea has ordered an evacuation around the area of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, suggesting that it fears an attack on the site. On another curious note, the Trump administration announced that it will hold a full briefing for the entire Senate on the North Korean situation on Wednesday. According to the Washington Post:
“A senior Trump administration official said the meeting with senators will take place in the auditorium at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, the building next to the White House that houses most of the National Security Council. The auditorium will be temporarily turned into a “sensitive compartmented information facility,” or SCIF, which is the term for a room where sensitive national security information can be shared, the official said.”
Obviously, the Trump Administration wishes the briefing to be a “special” event.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute is reporting that the world spent $1.686 trillion on arms in 2016, a 0.4 percent increase from 2015. The report notes that
- World military spending in 2016 accounted for 2.2 per cent of global GDP. Military spending as a share of GDP, was highest in the Middle East (for countries where data is available), with an average of 6.0 per cent of GDP in 2016, while the lowest was in the Americas, with an average of 1.3 per cent of GDP.
- Spending in Africa fell by 1.3 per cent in 2016, a second year of decrease after 11 consecutive years of increases. This was mostly due to spending cuts in oil-exporting countries in sub-Saharan Africa (e.g. Angola and South Sudan).
- In Asia and Oceania, military expenditure rose by 4.6 per cent in 2016. Spending levels are related to the many tensions in the region such as over territorial rights in the South China Sea.
- Military expenditure in Central America and the Caribbean and South America combined decreased by 7.8 per cent to a level not seen since 2007. The fall is largely explained by spending reductions by oil-exporting countries such as Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. Brazil’s spending continued to decline as a result of a worsening economic crisis.
Chart from Forbes
Le Pen and Macron have emerged as the top two vote-getters in the first round of the French election. The outcome marks the first time that none of the major French parties has emerged as a winner–the repudiation of politics as usual is obvious in the outcome. But the two are also quite different in their politics. Le Pen’s populism hardly accords with the pro-EU centrism of Macron. Most analysts believe that Macron will win the second round on 7 May and, if that is the case, the outcome will replicate the earlier elections in Austria and the Netherlands where the right-wing parties did not succeed in obtaining majorities.
Macron and Le Pen
Income inequality has important political consequences. In 1970, the US middle class (defined as those families of three with incomes between about $42,000 to $126,000 annually in 2014 dollars) shrank from about 61% in 1970 to about 50% in 2015. This loss of status and security leads to resentment and fear which then become the fodder for politicians. The rise in more authoritarian politics in the world, in the US, Europe, and in Asia) can be traced to this loss of societal position.
Graphics from Metrocosm
Visual Capitalist has a very interesting graphic showing which countries in the world most Americans regard as an “enemy”. The data for the graphic comes from a survey taken by YouGov between January 28 – February 1, 2017. According to that poll, no American regards Madagascar, Paraguay, or Australia as an enemy (1% consider Canada to be an enemy).
The Trump Administration claims to have sent “messages” to the world through the use of military strikes in Syria and Afghanistan. Max Fisher has gone through the research about whether such messages are effective in international relations and has found that there is little evidence to support the proposition that such messages are effective. Using military power to send signals of intend can be effective, but there are a number of conditions that need to be satisfied for the messages to be received effectively. While the claims of the Trump Administration seem to be intuitively persuasive, it is very difficult to tell whether they actually do deter behavior.
The US State Department has certified that Iran has complied with the nuclear agreement, but the day after it had done so, US President Trump repeated his campaign assessment that the agreement was “the worst deal ever” and that he would review the accord. The tension between these assessments is hard to resolve, but a good deal of it is due to adamant hostility to Iran on the part of the US. Paul Pillar worked for the CIA on Middle Eastern affairs and is now a Professor at Georgetown. His analysis of the Trump Administration’s policy toward Iran is enlightening and compelling.
Last March was the second warmest March on record and was 1.9°F above the 20th century average. The reality of global warming is hard to deny when one realizes that:
“More notably, this March marks a whopping 627 months in a row of warmer than normal temperatures. If you were born after December 1964, you’ve never experienced a month cooler than average on this planet.”
The chart below is a graphic demonstration of how the planet has warmed. Nonetheless, there is a concerted effort to undermine the clear consensus of most climate scientists.
The first round of the French national election begins this weekend and Vox has an article that outlines all the candidates running and what the issues are. While there are eleven candidates, the analysts believe that only four have a real shot at emerging as the two candidates for the second round of elections later on. The terrorist attack in Paris yesterday has given the election a jolt and it remains to be seen whether the attack favors the right wing candidate, Le Pen, or the left wing candidate, Mélenchon. The Pew Research Center has some very interesting information about where the support for the right-wing National Front comes from. This election is critically important for the future of Europe and should be watched carefully.
The world is facing catastrophes in three countries because of food shortages: South Sudan, Somalia, and Nigeria. We could also add Yemen to the list as well as several others who are just hovering at the brink of collapse. The world, however, is not doing very much to help the millions in these countries–indeed, the international organizations and non-governmental organizations which respond to these crises are critically short of money and resources at this point in time. Our colleague at Hampshire College, Michael Klare, makes the argument that these disasters are linked to climate change and should therefore be considered a form of genocide because of the lack of action.
At least 12 people were killed in Venezuela as protests turned to rioting and looting. The situation continues to deteriorate as it becomes clearer that there is no likelihood of political concessions by the Maduro government. The desperation of the people is obvious and political violence is probably the only alternative left for the people to achieve a change. Venezuela is potentially the richest country in Latin America and its descent into chaos is a clear example of the singular importance of good governance. One should never underestimate the significance of a responsive government.
A new book on the Holocaust has been published, Human Rights After Hitler, by Dan Plesch. The book adds more evidence that the Allied Powers were well aware of the German plans to exterminate Jews as early as December 1942. This assertion has been made before, but Plesch provides documents that have been secret to make the case. According to The Independent:
“Newly accessed material from the United Nations – not seen for around 70 years – shows that as early as December 1942, the US, UK and Soviet governments were aware that at least two million Jews had been murdered and a further five million were at risk of being killed, and were preparing charges. Despite this, the Allied Powers did very little to try and rescue or provide sanctuary to those in mortal danger.”
The clear lesson is that when human rights are being threatened on such a massive scale, states should act on that information as quickly as possible and not wait for overwhelming evidence.
There are reports that China has placed bombers on high alert in anticipation of actions in North Korea. It is not at all clear what this higher stage implies, but it suggests that China is concerned about the possible influx of refugees from North Korea in case of instability. Russia has also rushed more equipment and soldiers to its border with North korea. In the mean time, we have learned that the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier group would take at least 30 days to get into position near North Korea. The confusion over the whereabouts of the aircraft carrier has led to much derision in Asia, and this comment from China’s China Times:
“The truth seems to be that the US military and president jointly created fake news and it is without doubt a rare scandal in US history, which will be bound to cripple Trump’s and US dignity.”
Let’s hope that the Chinese high alert is not due to an expectation that the US is going to attack North Korea. I have no doubts that that is exactly what the Chinese would do if they thought an attack was imminent. But let’s pretend that it’s not on their mind right now.
BBC published an article with the intriguing title, “How Western Civilisation Could Collapse“. The article analyzes several scholarly approaches to answering the question of why civilizations often degrade and comes up with two variables that seem to play an important role: growing inequality within the civilization and environmental stress caused by the resource demands of the civilization. The article is not particularly uplifting, but it does provoke a great deal of thought.
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson sent a letter to Speaker of the House Ryan certifying that Iran is compliant with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the agreement with Iran on its activities with respect to nuclear fuels. But the letter also raised issues, such as Iran’s “role as a state sponsor of terrorism”, which are not part of the Agreement. In a statement to the press, Tillerson said:
“The Trump administration is currently conducting across the entire government a review of our Iran policy … an unchecked Iran has the potential to follow the same path as North Korea and take the world along with it. The United States is keen to avoid a second piece of evidence that strategic patience is a failed approach”.
In other words, even though Iran has honored the nuclear agreement, the US is thinking about implementing policies to isolate Iran once again. If such policies are adopted, it is critically important that they be justified on grounds that are completely separate from the nuclear issue. The US needs to stick to the agreement it signed.
Protests in Venezuela against President Maduro have continued and two protesters were killed in the most recent demonstrations. The political process has completely collapsed in the country as Maduro continues to have many passionate supporters. Eleven Latin American countries has signed statements urging the Venezuelan government to schedule new elections to restore the legitimacy of the state, but all indications are that Maduro has no intention of relaxing his grip on the country.
Click on the link below to see a video from Reuters on the demonstrations in Venezuela.
http://www.reuters.com/assets/iframe/yovideo?videoId=371514985
The Guardian is reporting that the US military is considering shooting down any North Korean missile tests as a way of preventing North Korea from testing an intercontinental ballistic missile. A successful test of such a missile would mean that North Korea had the theoretical possibility of hitting the US homeland with a nuclear attack. A Pentagon spokesperson was quoted as saying
“North Korea’s unlawful weapons programs represent a clear, grave threat to US national security. North Korea openly states that its ballistic missiles are intended to deliver nuclear weapons to strike cities in the United States, the Republic of Korea, and Japan.”
Actually, South Korea and Japan are already under threat of a North Korean attack since the country has tested missiles with sufficient range to hit those countries. So the only issue that really concerns the US is an ICBM. It is unlikely that those two countries would be willing to serve as a battleground between the US and North Korea simply in order to prevent the US homeland from being at risk. In the meantime, even though it was announced (and this blog reported) that the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier group was heading toward North Korea on 8 April, it turns out that the Vinson was actually heading in the opposite direction toward the Indian Ocean. Indeed, President Trump told Fox News on 12 April:
“We are sending an armada, very powerful. We have submarines, very powerful, far more powerful than the aircraft carrier….We have the best military people on Earth. And I will say this: he is doing the wrong thing.”
I am not sure how to interpret this information–perhaps it is a psychological ploy by the US. More likely, it is simple incompetence.
The French first-round election is five days away and the top 4 candidates are clustered at the top of the opinion polls. It still seems as if Marine Le Pen of the National Front Party and centrist Emmanuel Macron will be the top two vote-getters, but the race is becoming too close to call. Le Figaro conducted an interview with Le Pen and she articulates her positions with great conviction. Her rhetoric about France resonates strongly with that of US President Trump and his America First position:
“This presidential race is virtually a referendum for or against unbridled globalization. Our values, codes, customs and lifestyle are being dissolved. When a country loses its identity, it no longer knows what it is or where it comes from, and what its real worth is. So it dissolves. I want to write into the constitution the idea of defending and promoting France’s historical and cultural heritage, and give back to our country the status of a political power. That will be the launching pad for us to conquer the world anew! Yes, I for one want to set off to conquer the world! Relaunch ties with Africa, defend the French language abroad.”
The election merits close attention.
Basuki Tjahaja Purnama is the current governor of Jakarta in Indonesia. He came into office when the former governor, Joko Widodo, became President of Indonesia. He is running for re-election and the campaign is incredibly ugly. Mr. Purnama is currently under indictment for blasphemy for a comment he made about the Quran. He is a Christian and his opponent, Anies Rasyid Baswedan, is a Muslim. Indonesia’s population is 85% Muslim, but it has a reputation for being very tolerant and secular. This election, however, has been marked by rising intolerance with many arguing that Muslims cannot vote for a non-Muslim.
The International Monetary Fund is about to release its World Economic Outlook, April 2017 and some chapters to the study are already available. Chapter 3, “Understanding the Downward Trend in Labor Income Shares,” has been published and its findings confirm what other studies have found. One of the more telling statistics confirms the growing discrepancy between low- and high-skilled wages:
“The decline in the global labor share has been borne by low- and middle-skilled labor. During 1995–2009 their combined labor income share was reduced by more than 7 percentage points, while the global high-skilled labor share increased by more than 5 percentage points.”
The study also indicates that it is hard to assess the income inequality trends across countries:
“A less well-known fact about the fall in labor shares at the global level is that it reflects declining shares in both advanced and, to a lesser extent, emerging market and developing economies. Indeed, the labor share of the chosen period also serves to maximize data coverage of emerging market and developing economies. This finding corroborates that of Karabarbounis and Neiman (2014). Relative to that paper, the chapter’s data cover a larger number of countries and extend their time period by up to four years. Importantly, the data used in this chapter include significant revisions to the official labor share data for systemically large countries such as Brazil, China, Germany, and the United Kingdom. income has declined in four of the world’s five largest economies, led by the steepest decline in China, while the labor share of income in the United Kingdom has trended up.”
The study is quite important and should become part of the mainstream conversation about the global economy.
US Vice-President Pence is in South Korea and he made some interesting comments about the North Korean nuclear program while there. Pence said that the US had run out of “strategic patience” and went on:
“Just in the past two weeks, the world witnessed the strength and resolve of our new president in actions taken in Syria and Afghanistan.
“North Korea would do well not to test his resolve or the strength of the armed forces of the United States in this region.”
The truth of the matter is that the US can do very little about the situation in North Korea. A pre-emptive strike would likely not be wholly successful in the short-run and would undoubtedly trigger off a conventional war which would kill thousands. According to The Hill, a senior North Korean official stated that the US had created “a dangerous situation in which a thermonuclear war may break out at any minute.” Meanwhile, there are reports that the US is sending two more aircraft carrier groups to join the USS Carl Vinson off the coast of North Korea: the USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Nimitz.
The Pew Research Center has released a very detailed analysis of American views of the US government, particularly on President Trump’s ability to lead the country. The results are consistent with common views: Republicans support Mr. Trump strongly, while Democrats are very skeptical. But on the some of the questions, there are clear doubts about Mr. Trump. Virtually, no one thinks that Mr. Trump is “too cautious”. Another insight is that many Americans do not believe that they can trust what Mr. Trump says:
“When asked to compare Trump with previous presidents, 51% say they trust what Trump says less than they trusted what previous presidents said while in office, compared with 30% who say they trust him more and 16% who say they trust what he says about the same as what previous presidents said.”
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Turkish voters have apparently approved a referendum to give the President vast new powers under the constitution. According to reports, 51.5% of voters approved the measure which give the president the right to “appoint the cabinet and an undefined number of vice-presidents, and be able to select and remove senior civil servants without parliamentary approval.” The changes will not become effective until 2019, but opponents fear that the changes will create a highly authoritarian regime. Erdogan has become increasingly authoritarian over the years and single-party rule is not out of the question. The changes will also make it more difficult for the European Union to allow Turkey to join the union.
Dr. Mohamed Chtatou has written a very good essay on the challenges of globalization to education. The topic is often mentioned, but rarely analyzed closely. Chtatou frames the issues in terms of tradeoffs, an approach that is often misleading, since there are usually a variety of ways to think about things. But the tradeoffs pose the issues in a debate framework which is a good approach for a discussion . His tradeoffs are as follows:
- “The tension between the global and the local: people need gradually to become world citizens without losing their roots and while continuing to play an active part in the life of their nation and their local community”;
- “The tension between the universal and the individual: culture is steadily being globalized, but as yet only partially. We cannot ignore the promises of globalization nor its risks, not the least of which is the risk of forgetting the unique character of human beings, it is for them to choose their own future and achieve their full potential within the carefully tended wealth of their traditions and their own cultures which unless we are careful, can be endangered by contemporary developments”;
- The tension between tradition and modernity: how is it to adapt to change without turning one’s back on the past, how can autonomy be acquired in a complementary fashion with the free development of others and how can scientific progress be assimilated? This is the spirit in which the challenges of the new information technologies must be met”.
The need to preserve culture in the face of the homogenizing influences of globalization is one of the most serious challenges we face. Without cultural identity, we all become rootless.
The world was expecting some sort of North Korean challenge to US President Trump’s rhetoric about “solving” the North Korean nuclear program. There was a missile test, but it failed. Missile tests are not unusual since the technology is complex. But there are also suspicions that the missile failure may have been caused by US hacking into the North Korean program. We do know that former President Obama had ordered a significant boost to such activities during his terms, but it is impossible to know how effective it may have been (and the US will never admit that it had any role at all). But the mere fact that North Korea attempted the launch indicates that it intends to test Mr. Trump. So it is highly likely that other tests, of missiles or bombs, will be forthcoming.
Kim Jong-un
World Politics News 