There has been significant movement in negotiations between North and South Korea concerning North Korean participation in the Winter Olympics and on political and military relations between the two states. Significantly, however, North Korea has been quite clear and insistent that US concerns about the North’s nuclear program are not part of these discussions. North Korea’s chief negotiator, Ri Son Gwon, made the following statement in reference to the discussions between North and South Korea after South Korea introduced the idea of “denuclearization”:
“All our weapons including atomic bombs, hydrogen bombs and ballistic missiles are only aimed at the United States, not our brethren, nor China and Russia….This is not a matter between North and South Korea, and to bring up this issue would cause negative consequences and risks turning all of today’s good achievement into nothing.”
It remains to be seen how South Korea will proceed. A great deal of the tension between the two states comes from the US concern that the North Korean nuclear program threatens the US homeland. That concern clearly affects South Korea since it relies upon US power in any confrontation with North Korea. But as far as nuclear weapons are concerned, South Korea is already vulnerable to a North Korean nuclear attack. North Korea has successfully driven a wedge between South Korea and the US. Whether that wedge can be exploited depends on the willingness of South Korea to tolerate continued testing by the North Koreans despite US opposition. South Korea cannot afford to ditch the US alliance entirely because it serves South Korean interests with respect to Japan, China, and Russia. The US and South Korea must now decide how to recalibrate their interests.
“This life expectancy divide between rich and poor Americans has been growing for decades. A report from the National Academies of Science looked at life expectancy by income groups between 1980 and 2010. In 1980, the richest cohort of middle-age American men could expect to live until about 83 and the poorest, to 76. By 2010, the richest American males had gained six years in life expectancy, living to 89 on average, while life expectancy for the poorest men hadn’t improved.”
This discrepancy can easily be explained by better health care for richer individuals and a host of other factors associated with the benefits of higher incomes. As such, the data provide a compelling reason to regard income inequality as a serious social and political problem.
Uri Friedman has written a fascinating and well-informed essay on how the US National Security Adviser, H.R. McMaster, thinks about the contemporary world political system, particularly with respect to the question of how to deal with North Korea. Interestingly, Friedman dissects McMaster’s views of various scholarly articles and books and finds that McMaster finds tremendous resonance with today’s patterns and those of the pre-1914 world. I personally agree with that framework, particularly as it emphasizes the role of technological change in destabilizing the political order. What I find most intriguing is that McMaster’s perspective is so well-informed but that he has to accommodate the views of the President Trump whose knowledge of history seems to be limited. I highly recommend the essay.
Evan Osnos has written a very insightful essay for the New Yorker on how Chinese officials understand American foreign policy under US President Trump. The essay is quite revealing as it navigates the transition from the Obama’s Administration to reducing American commitments abroad gradually to Trump’s desire to assert American sovereignty as quickly as possible. Perhaps the best example of the difference in style and objectives was the treatment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The Obama Administration assiduously crafted the agreement over a long period of time with eleven other countries–but not China–for the specific purpose of defining trade and investment rules that the Chinese would ultimately have to accept even though they had no voice in formulating them. President Obama had to make many concessions to other countries in order to achieve this end, but he calculated that the losses suffered to the countries involved would be outweighed by the benefits the US would secure by coercing Chinese acceptance of the rules.
Three days after he was inaugurated, President Trump pulled the US out of the Agreement without offering a substitute. Despite the non-participation of the US, the eleven other countries have continued to forge an agreement without the protections Obama had secured for workers’ rights and environmental safeguards. And China is formulating its own grand trade and investment agreement–the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership–without US participation. At this point it is impossible to assess whether the US will be better or worse off with these new arrangements, but it is probably safe to assume that these new arrangements do not take into account specific American interests to any great degree.
The TPP is but one example of how different the world is now under the new role the US is evolving under Trump’s leadership. But it seems safe to say that the American withdrawal under Trump is likely more advantageous to Chinese interests than the planned American withdrawal under Obama. Osnos argues that the Chinese clearly interpret the world in these terms:
“For decades, China avoided directly challenging America’s primacy in the global order, instead pursuing a strategy that Deng, in 1990, called ‘hide your strength and bide your time.’ But Xi, in his speech to the Party Congress, declared the dawn of ‘a new era,’ one in which China moves ‘closer to center stage.’ He presented China as a ‘new option for other countries,’ calling this alternative to Western democracy ‘the zhongguo fang’an, the ‘Chinese solution.’”
“During the Mar-a-Lago meetings, Chinese officials noticed that, on some of China’s most sensitive issues, Trump did not know enough to push back. ‘Trump is taking what Xi Jinping says at face value—on Tibet, Taiwan, North Korea,’ Daniel Russel, who was, until March, the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, told me. ‘That was a big lesson for them.’ Afterward, Trump conceded to the Wall Street Journal how little he understood about China’s relationship to North Korea: ‘After listening for ten minutes, I realized it’s not so easy.’
“Russel spoke to Chinese officials after the Mar-a-Lago visit. ‘The Chinese felt like they had Trump’s number,’ he said. ‘Yes, there is this random, unpredictable Ouija-board quality to him that worries them, and they have to brace for some problems, but, fundamentally, what they said was ‘He’s a paper tiger.’ Because he hasn’t delivered on any of his threats. There’s no wall on Mexico. There’s no repeal of health care. He can’t get the Congress to back him up. He’s under investigation.’
“After the summit, the Pangoal Institution, a Beijing think tank, published an analysis of the Trump Administration, describing it as a den of warring ‘cliques,’ the most influential of which was the ‘Trump family clan.’ The Trump clan appears to ‘directly influence final decisions’ on business and diplomacy in a way that ‘has rarely been seen in the political history of the United States,’ the analyst wrote. He summed it up using an obscure phrase from feudal China: jiatianxia—’to treat the state as your possession.’”
I find Osno’s interpretation of the Chinese perspective to be highly persuasive. I suspect that the Chinese will find their road to greater global influence significantly more difficult than they anticipate despite the American disengagement. The Chinese have yet to demonstrate that they have a better understanding of how to manage an extraordinarily complex world any better than the Americans had.
The Mekong River runs through three provinces of China, continuing into Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam before emptying into the South China Sea. It supports about 60 million people and is the world’s largest inland fishery. It begins on the Tibetan Plateau and is being increasingly harnessed by dams to provide hydroelectric power and irrigation. Control over the river is an incredible source of political and economic power and there have been attempts to coordinate the use of the river through a variety of international agreements. On Wednesday, a meeting will be held of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation forum which is one of several commissions trying to regulate the resources of the Mekong River. But true cooperation is difficult since China controls the headwaters of the River in Tibet. What seems to be clear is that the river resources are being taxed beyond sustainable limits and that the people downriver are the ones with the most to lose.
The German Social Democratic Party (SPD) is playing hardball with German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she tries to assemble a majority coalition government. The SPD party members believe that they have sacrificed too much in the most recent agreement with Merkel and are demanding a stronger voice in decisions concerning social and infrastructure spending. Merkel’s previous government coalitions have favored austerity measures and tight budget discipline, measures that are consistent with Germany’s position on broader European Union matters. But, as she tries for an unprecedented fourth Chancellorship, Merkel may find that she has to break with the past. It is not clear how strong a coalition could be formed at this point, but Merkel clearly does not wish to default to a minority government which would be likely too fragile to handle the issues Germany and Europe faces in the near future.
Venezuelans continue to suffer in ways that are simply incomprehensible given that the country should be among the richest in the world. The economy is dead in the water and inflation is running at an average of about 50% a month. If one calculates the average wages of Venezuelan workers into calories, it is clear that the country cannot survive:
“… the minimum wage (the wage earned by the median worker) measured in the cheapest available calorie, had declined from 52,854 calories per day in May 2012 to just 7,005 by May 2017 – not enough to feed a family of five.
“Since then, conditions have deteriorated dramatically. By last month, the minimum wage had fallen to just 2,740 calories a day. And proteins are in even shorter supply. Meat of any kind is so scarce that the market price of a kilogram is equivalent to more than a week of minimum-wage work.”
Organized opposition to the government of Nicolas Maduro has been completely neutered. The legislative assembly has been sidelined, opposition parties have been banned, and the judicial branch is completely controlled by the government. The Venezuelan people have been completely abandoned by the international community.
Aftermath of a Food Riot In Venezuela, June 2016
The US is threatening to cut funding to the UN Relief Works Agency (UNRWA), an agency that has supported about 5 million Palestinian refugees since the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. The agency was created in response to the massive movement of Arabs out of the Jewish Zone created by the UN which ultimately became the state of Israel. That movement was considered coerced by many Arabs who did not wish to live in a state governed by Jewish laws and therefore those who left were considered refugees. Israel, however, does not consider those people refugees since they could have decided to stay. Thus, the agency was born in a highly contested political environment and that political atmosphere has never diminished. However, the humanitarian issue of how to care for people who have no permanent residence and lack the protection of a sovereign state is also quite real. The potential cutoff of US aid to these people will simply aggravate the humanitarian crisis and will undoubtedly spill over into political and strategic matters.
The US and South Korea have agreed to postpone their scheduled military exercises until after the end of the Winter Olympics (2 February-25 March). If North Korea takes this action as a possible sign of accommodation (the Chinese and the Russians have been pushing the idea of a “double-freeze”–no military exercises by the US and South Korea in return for no testing by North Korea), then we might have a basis for possible negotiations. The Winter Olympics offers a convenient excuse for the double-freeze since it provides a plausible basis for non-action that does not involve a capitulation to the terms of the other side. If this is indeed what is happening (and there is no way to know for sure), then we should hope that the pause provides an opportunity to build upon.
The last 18 months has been nothing less than a constant succession of bizarre stories that I never could have imagined 2 years ago. Many of these stories have been truly depressing and discouraging, but I had no idea how the string of stories had re-shaped the parameters of what I think is “normal”. But today I had an epiphany, brought about by some geniuses out in internet-land who apparently have had their own definitions of normal distorted as well. And I felt vindicated as I read this snippet from the Twilight Zone:
It is comforting to know that we are all going crazy together. Or that the insanity somehow makes sense. Whatever.
Visualizing Capitalism has produced a graphic that nicely illustrates the cosmopolitan nature of the world’s richest people. They transcend national boundaries and they all share a common interest in protecting their capital. In many respects, this elite shares more common interests than they share with their own citizens. The world’s richest people live lives completely beyond the comprehension of 99% of everyone alive and who have ever existed.
To put the protests in Iran into context, the chart below gives an idea of how prices in Iran have risen in the period from October-November 2017. People go into the streets and risk their lives when their children’s lives are at risk. Politics is clearly a part of that equation, but it very rarely is the principal reason for street protests. The US is calling for a meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the protests in Iran, but many countries, such as Sweden, regard the Iranian protests to be an internal matter at their current stage. The Russians asked why the UN Security Council had not yet discussed the “Black Lives Matter” issue in response to the American calls for a resolution on the Iranian protests.
It is very, very cold in South Hadley. The temperature tonight is predicted to be about -15ºF and the wind is howling. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen such low temperatures and there are some who are suggesting that the old temperatures refute the idea of climate change (see the video below). Distinguishing between weather and climate is getting tiresome, but I must say that the research suggesting that these polar snaps might be a feature of climate change for New England has me terrified.
“Iran is failing at every level despite the terrible deal made with them by the Obama Administration. The great Iranian people have been repressed for many years. They are hungry for food & for freedom. Along with human rights, the wealth of Iran is being looted. TIME FOR CHANGE!”
“These violent protestors and Trump, who should now be considered allies, are derailing the demands of people for better living standards and transparency. Some of the protestors who are turning rallies into violent scenes are knowingly or unknowingly dancing to the tune of Trump, his inner circle, and the envious Saudi prince who is wishing Iran to degenerate into chaos.”
Such a connection was likely inevitable, but the visibility of the President’s tweets will now undoubtedly be used to delegitimize the protesters. Calling for regime change in Iran as the Tweet suggests will be used by the Iranian government to characterize the protests as an American plot.
The same is true of President Trump’s Tweets about North Korea. On 3 January, President Trump tweeted:
“North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the ‘Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.’ Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!”
At the very time that the US is trying to persuade Kim Jong-un to halt the testing program, the US President casts doubt on the North Korean capabilities. One could not imagine a more counterproductive move under the circumstances.
“And the gambit appeals directly to Moon’s goals, while trying to force a choice: a peaceful Olympics, or South Korea’s alliance with the United States. As part of his dialogue proposal, Kim explicitly criticized the Moon administration for ‘joining the United States in its reckless moves for a North-targeted nuclear war’ and requested the discontinuation of ‘joint nuclear war drills they stage with outside forces.’ (South Korea and the United States hold regular joint military drills, which North Korea consistently portrays as preparation for an invasion.) But it is Kim himself who wants to hold South Korea’s hosting of the Winter Olympics hostage to his demand for global acknowledgement that the North has (illegally) become a nuclear weapons state.”
There is little question that US allies in the region–South Korea and Japan–as well as the other major powers China and Russia would vastly prefer a solution to the crisis which avoids war, and all these parties may not be as attached the the US objective of the “denuclearization” of the Korean peninsula as is the US. Such an outcome would be perceived as a major defeat by the Trump Administration because it clearly indicates that other parties are willing to accept North Korea’s status as a “nuclear power”.
Whether the US is prepared to accept North Korea as a nuclear power really depends on how much validity the US puts into the theory of deterrence. Deterrence has always been difficult for the US to accept as a national strategy since so much of American history was “threat-free”. After the War of 1812 with Canada and the War of 1846 with Spain/Mexico, the US has not really worried about the threat of invasion which is the reason why the attacks on the American homeland on 7 December 1941 and 11 September 2001 were so traumatic. But while those attacks were incredibly tragic, neither really threatened the viability of the Republic. A nuclear attack, however, is quite different. In an instant, millions of Americans could die rendering the idea of a “victory” after such an attack moot.
But deterrence relies on the idea of mutual annihilation. It accepts the notion that missions of citizens could die in a nuclear attack, but that the ability to threaten the deaths of millions of the other side’s citizens renders the usefulness of a nuclear attack nugatory. No nuclear attack is rational under such circumstances. But that truth is not the problem with deterrence for American strategists. The problem comes from a corollary of that truth: if no nuclear attack is rational, then no threatof a nuclear attack is rational. And it is the threat of a nuclear attack that the US wants to preserve.
The US wants North Korea to believe that the US can and will attack it. That threat protects America’s ally, South Korea, from a North Korean attack. That threat is credible as long as the only people who would be killed in such a war would be Korean. But it becomes incredible if the US has to trade American lives to defend Korea.
Protests in Iran have continued into the 4th day. Thus far, 12 deaths have been reported, but it is difficult to know exactly what is going on. The protests have occurred in a large number of cities, but they do not appear to be organized nor do they seem to cohere around a single objective. These protests are quite different from those that occurred in 2009 when the “Green Movement” was an organized attempt to derail the re-election of President Ahmadinejad whom many believed was corrupt. These protests seem to be calling for reform, not regime change–the current President, Rouhani, was re-elected handily last May. The US and Israel would be well-advised to pay attention to this difference. Iran is a highly educated, very sophisticated society and if foreign powers become too involved in cheering on the protests, there is a real risk that the protests could be de-legitimized by the hard-liners in Iran.
“The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!”
Angus Deaton won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2015. He has written a short essay on inequality that addresses a central concern: is economic inequality simply the result of normal economic activity or is it something that is deliberately constructed through selfish interests? His answer is the latter. The essay is difficult to follow, but not long. It is well worth the effort.
The Guardian is a reliably lefty British newspaper and it has published an article on the apparent collapse of the left and center-left in European politics since the Great Recession of 2008-09. In most elections since that time, right-wing nationalist parties have done quite well and we have tended to explain their popularity in terms of fears of immigration, globalization, and the stagnation of wages. What is equally important, and so far unexamined, is why left-wing parties have been unable to respond to these challenges as effectively. The issue is critically important for the US as the left-wing needs to figure out a way to revive the Democratic Party rather than allowing dissatisfaction with the status quo to default to the Trump wing of the Republican Party.
The Haas Institute at the University of California, Berkeley, has been monitoring the growth of anti-Islamic sentiment in the US since the attacks of US territory in September 2001. Specifically, the Institute has followed the introduction of anti-sharia legislation in the the US and it has issued a report, “Legalizing Otherhood” which documents this movement in the US. The report finds that “Of 194 anti-Muslim bills proposed in state legislatures across the country from 2010 to 2016, 18 have passed and been enacted into law”. Twenty of those bills have passed the Mississippi legislature, a state that has a minuscule Muslim population. Such legislation is totally unnecessary since Federal Law is the supreme law of the land and forbids the introduction of religious law into account in all judicial proceedings. The laws, however, are designed to engender fear of Muslims, a political, rather than a legal, objective.
Protests in Iran have continued into the third day, and they are beginning to take on a common theme: opposition to the religiously-based character of the regime. According to Western reports, and such reports are not to be considered as authoritative, the protests do not seem to be aimed at President Rouhani, but rather at the authority of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. That dissatisfaction may be real, but it is more likely that the rising prices of necessary commodities is the most immediate reason for the protests. But the burning of banners bearing the likeness of Khamenei must be a worrying sign for the regime.
Last week the African National Congress (ANC) elected Cyril Ramaphosa as its leader, replacing Jacob Zuma, the President of South Africa. That moved paved the way for the country’s Supreme Court to issue a ruling that the Parliament had not held Zuma responsible for using government funds for personal use. Zuma has been President since 2009 and South Africa was plagued by corruption and economic decline during his rule. The ruling opens the door to Zuma’s impeachment and perhaps an end to the poor governance of a potentially very rich and vibrant country.
China has responded to US President Trump’s tweet charging China with secretly supplying oil to North Korea. An editorial in Global Times, which serves as an official mouthpiece for the Beijing government, asserts that
“If Washington wants to accuse Beijing, it should hand out tangible evidence. It should point out which shipping company those vessels belong to and with which Chinese authority they are associated. If the US finds illegal acts by anyone from the Chinese mainland, Beijing welcomes the tipoffs and will punish the lawbreakers. “
The editorial points out the necessary evidence to support Mr. Trump’s accusation has not been made public and that the photographs released by the South Korean government are hardly conclusive. Most tellingly, the editorial simply describes the tweet as beneath the dignity of the US President: “This is not how a US president should behave.
World Politics News 