The situation in Syria continues to ramp up great power apprehensions. President Obama warned Syria against moving any of its chemical weapons, pointing out that such moves would affect his calculus concerning US intervention. In turn, the Russians have warned against Western involvement in the dispute. The Russians have a great stake in Syria, and it appears as if they have broached the issue of Assad leaving the country. We will have to see whether the Russians have the ability to move Assad toward resignation. Much would depend on whether Assad would be given guarantees against criminal prosecution, something the Syrian opposition would find impossible to accept. Meanwhile, the violence continues to spread to Lebanon.
The Arctic sea ice is headed toward a record melt this year. The previous record was in 2007 when everything that could go wrong for the sea ice did in fact go wrong. This year is much different–there were no anomalies to explain the quick melt. So this melt is cause for significant alarm among scientists.
There is considerable cultural diversity in the world, a fact that deserves celebration and support. Nonetheless, there is considerable controversy over some cultural practices and the extent to which they can be prevented or condemned. Female genital mutilation (called female circumcision by some) is one such practice. A similar controversy is now arising over male circumcision. One wonders if there are any truly universal moral codes.
Foreign Policy has published an essay that posits an interesting theory of foreign policy, one that suggests that attitudes toward other states are primarily the result of intra-elite rivalry as opposed to the actual behavior of the affected state. This theory is based on the anti-American attitudes in countries, primarily Pakistan. It is hard to tell how generalizable this theory might be, but it is quite different from our intuitive sense of what foreign policy is.
Rock and Roll is sometimes interpreted in a profoundly political manner (in fact, it is always political). Often, however, the politics of Rock and Roll become explicit and, under those circumstances, it is considered subversive. The 1960s and 1970s were the last period in which music identified an alternative politics. With Pussy Riot, it may be the case that a similar phase could be ushered in.
Tensions over the island disputes between Japan and China have increased dramatically over the last few weeks. The Chinese call the islands the Diaoyu; the Japanese call the the Senkaku. This dispute is just one of many that affect relations among the states in East Asia.
India has blamed Pakistan for the inflammatory text messages and videos that sparked a huge movement of frightened people out of the northeast states of India. The religious, ethnic, and tribal tensions in the region were heightened by the messages, but it is not clear what advantage such actions would have for Pakistan. We will have to follow up on this story as more information becomes available.
We haven’t posted many articles lately on the European sovereign debt crisis, largely because there hasn’t been many news reports. The crisis, however, still festers, and European leaders are beginning to pay more attention to a seemingly intractable situation. Greece is ground zero of the crisis, although it is not, by itself, large enough to unravel the European Union. We will be hearing more about how the euro will fare as European leaders return from their summer vacations.
In a move that will rattle both the US and Israel, Egyptian President Morsi has announced that he will go to the Non-Aligned Movement meeting in Iran. Iran and Egypt have not had full diplomatic relations since the Iranian revolution in 1979, and the upcoming visit may signal a warming of relations that will alter the power relationships in the Middle East.
There has been a massive exodus of people from the northeast states of India, as fears of ethnic and religious violence have been stimulated by a number of text messages and web photos. It is not clear that any of these rumors have any basis in fact, although there has been violence in that area of India recently. But the number of people fleeing the region is staggering, and we should worry about the volatility of people’s perceptions. It is very difficult to get accurate information in such circumstances.
Iran celebrated Al-Quds (Jerusalem) day, a tradition started in 1979 with the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is a day to reaffirm the Republic’s commitment to the return of the Occupied Territories to Islamic rule. It was a day filled with anti-Israel rhetoric. Excerpts from some of the Iranian speeches can be found at the Middle East Media Research Institute.
The three members of the punk rock band, Pussy Riot, were sentenced to two year prison terms for their anti-Putin protests in a Russian church. There was relief that the maximum possible sentence of 7 years was not imposed, but the band members will appeal the sentence. Protests against the sentence occurred around the world, as reported by the Russian press. It is unlikely that President Putin will show any additional leniency.
South Africa has established a commission of inquiry to investigate the violence at a platinum mine in which many have died. A strike at the mine began a week ago, and there has been almost daily violence at the scene. Yesterday, police opened fire on the strikers who were apparently threatening more violence (it is always hard to ascertain the true sequence of events in such a situation–my advice is always to wait until the initial reports are verified) and 34 people were killed. South Africa is highly dependent on raw materials for its economic health, so the strike is a very serious matter for the country.
I’ve had several posts recently about the Israeli-Iranian stand-off, largely because there has been so much media attention to the matter. I’ve been trying very hard to find some sources that reflect accurately the Iranian side of the issue, but I haven’t been able to find anything other than government reports which are singularly unhelpful–they are wooden, content-free, and ideological. I am posting an essay published in the blog, Mondoweiss. The blog is a pro-Palestinian blog which I read regularly largely because it reports on news that often escapes the attention of the media. Its sympathies are clear and explicit, so while I welcome its honesty, I also know that I have to ask questions about everything I read. Today it posted an essay that tries to present something close to the Iranian position. It is substantive, but also one-sided. I encourage everyone to read it, but also caution everyone to be skeptical as they read.
Militants attacked a military base in Pakistan in a well-coordinated and well-armed fashion. The attack was repelled, but it undermined the recent claims, both in Pakistan and the US, that progress in weakening the militants in South Asia has been substantial. The attack also comes on the heels of an upsurge in violence against NATO and Afghan forces in Afghanistan. It does not appear, however, that anyone is seriously questioning the use of military tactics against militants.
Brazil is one of the emerging economies that did very well in the last decade. Like the others (China and India, and not so much Russia), it has recently experienced economic turmoil. The necessary changes to restore robust growth will be difficult for President Rousseff, but she seems to be aware of what is necessary. We will see if she has the power required to make those changes.
Several Persian Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar) have urged their citizens in Lebanon to leave the country. The fear is that the Syrian rebels are now targeting those citizens for kidnapping. There has been a rash of kidnappings in a tit-for-tat exchange as different groups try to gain advantage. The kidnappings are also potentially a source of revenue as ransoms are being demanded. The clear fear is that the struggle in Syria is now poised to spread throughout the region.
Media Matters, an organization that analyzes media coverage of public policy issue (and usually takes a liberal perspective), has done an interesting review of how the media covered the heat wave in July. As we know, July was the hottest month ever recorded in the United States, and there was a lot of media coverage on the weather. What was remarkable is that very few of the news reports mentioned the issue of climate change in their coverage. As Media Matters points out, many highly reputable scientific organizations clearly indicated that climate change was at least partially responsible for the extreme weather.
There is a blog report floating through the internet which purports to detail the outlines of an Israeli attack on Iran. I have no idea of how credible it is, and I would advise everyone not to take it seriously. I am only posting it to demonstrate how policy makers have to navigate a highly volatile information universe. The post is also revealing because the outline of the attack is hardly a surgical strike on Iranian nuclear facilities–if it is real, we can expect a very robust response from the Iranians.
Riots have broken out in the French northern city of Amiens. They seem to similar to the riots that occurred in 2005–young people protesting the lack of jobs and opportunities in France. There is a strong racial and anti-immigrant sentiment which has fed this discontent and it will be interesting to see how the new President, Hollande, responds to this challenge.
Stephen Walt has a great realist take on terrorism–essentially that it should not be considered so seriously given the expenditure of resources devoted to addressing it. This perspective is rock-solid realism, devoid of an emotional response the assault on values that terrorism poses.
The European economy ground to a standstill in the last quarter. France and Germany registered economic growth rates between 0.1 and 0.2 percent. Spain, Italy, and Greece all saw drops in the economic activity. The extended recession is taking a real toll on the mental health of Europeans, leading to a new category of disease, “economic suicides.” The recent data, however, suggest that the economic downturn will only get worse next year.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is one of the smartest financial analysts around, and he has written a short essay on the health of the global economy. Unfortunately, his analysis is pretty gloomy, suggesting that the global economy will not grow substantially for an extended period of time. His analysis of the role of debt and the concentration of wealth that accompanied that process is spot on and worth reading carefully.
As the costs of health care reach center stage in the US election, the following graph is worth contemplating. The US cannot continue to spend as much as it does on health care is certainly true. But where to cut the spending is really the issue. As the graph demonstrates, health spending is hardly uniform: most of the spending is done by a very small number of patients, usually at the end of life. If this assessment is true, then the real discussion should be on how to think more effectively about medical procedures.
I’ve paid a lot of attention to the territorial disputes in the South China Sea, but there are other ocean disputes in East Asia. A dispute between South Korea and Japan over the status of an island group called Dokdo in South Korea and Takeshima in Japan has reached a head recently, leading the Japanese to recall their Ambassador. A group of South Korean swimmers are swimming a relay to the islands (124 miles!) and the Japanese are not amused. We’ll see ho this dispute unfolds.
The situation in Egypt continues to evolve. President Morsi has dismissed two top military leaders in an attempt to establish civilian control over the Egyptian state. It is a bold move, and it it isn’t yet clear the extent to which the military has accepted the move. If successful, however, the move holds great promise for the development of Egyptian civil society.
Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon made a rather dramatic statement to Israel Radio yesterday. He “called on the international community to declare the diplomatic channel with Iran over its nuclear program a failure.” When pressed for details about how much longer the world should rely on the US strategy of embargoes and sanctions, Ayalon replied “several weeks.” The language signals a very different timeline than the one seemingly held by the Obama Administration, and it is very difficult to believe that President Obama would want an attack before the November election.
Mitt Romney has selected Paul Ryan of Wisconsin to be his Vice-Presidential candidate. The selection has a number of dimensions, but one is pertinent to our interests: there is virtually no foreign policy experience on the Republican slate. Foreign policy is rarely a major issue in US elections, and there have been a number of American Presidents with little or no foreign policy experience. But the US has changed dramatically over the last 20 years, and it is hard to imagine how foreign policy could count for so little. Some of the foreign press have weighed in on the selection.
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