10 August 2012   Leave a comment

Over the last three weeks, the tragedy in Syria has slowly been escalating into a much larger conflict.  The Russians, the Iranians, and even the Chinese have stepped up their activities in Syria, and today the US singled out Hezbollah as an active participant in the brutal suppression of the civilian population.  We will have to wait for the evidence supporting this accusation, but its practical effect is to commit the US to specific outcomes in Syria, e.g., to preventing any outcome which may have the effect of enhancing Iranian interests in the region.  There is little doubt that this preference has always been the case, but the public pronouncement puts US credibility on the line.  It also signals a clearer commitment to Israeli preferences in the region.

The Chinese economy has begun to slow sharply, raising concerns about the health of the global economy. The other emerging economies (Brazil and India, in particular) have also begun to slow, and the European economy is likely in a full recession.  The US economy is the only one showing any signs of growth, and its growth (1.5%) is anemic.  It does not appear as if there will be a dramatic slowdown at this point, but we should keep our eyes on food prices as the effects of the drought in the US begin to disseminate.  We should also keep an eye on oil prices as tensions continue to rise on the issue of Iranian influence in the Middle East.

Stephen Walt has a great essay on foreign policy and the US election.  Both Obama and Romney have not paid a great deal of attention to foreign policy, but it is a critical part of the job and   we can’t afford to ignore those concerns.

Posted August 11, 2012 by vferraro1971 in World Politics

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