The BBC has an article distinguished by its depth of analysis on Israeli-Azerbaijani relations. Azerbaijan and Israel have forged a very strong anti-Iranian alliance. Curiously, the population of Azerbaijan is overwhelmingly Muslim, but the government maintains a strong secular position and regards the religious foundations of the Iranian state as a threat to that position. In the case of an Israeli attack on Iran, there are strong suspicions, strongly denied by the government, that Azerbaijan will allow its territory to be used as forward bases for the attack.
Reuters is reporting that the US and Turkey are exploring the option of a no-fly zone in Syria. Similar tactics were tried in Iraq, and, in a modified way, in Libya. But in both of those cases, the UN Security Council approved the move. It remains to be seen if China and Russia would approve the intervention. There is also the possibility that the US and Turkey could try to persuade NATO to implement the policy, sidestepping the Security Council as was done in Kosovo in 1998. In that case, the danger of the violence spilling over into a wider regional war increases dramatically.
Over the last three weeks, the tragedy in Syria has slowly been escalating into a much larger conflict. The Russians, the Iranians, and even the Chinese have stepped up their activities in Syria, and today the US singled out Hezbollah as an active participant in the brutal suppression of the civilian population. We will have to wait for the evidence supporting this accusation, but its practical effect is to commit the US to specific outcomes in Syria, e.g., to preventing any outcome which may have the effect of enhancing Iranian interests in the region. There is little doubt that this preference has always been the case, but the public pronouncement puts US credibility on the line. It also signals a clearer commitment to Israeli preferences in the region.
The Chinese economy has begun to slow sharply, raising concerns about the health of the global economy. The other emerging economies (Brazil and India, in particular) have also begun to slow, and the European economy is likely in a full recession. The US economy is the only one showing any signs of growth, and its growth (1.5%) is anemic. It does not appear as if there will be a dramatic slowdown at this point, but we should keep our eyes on food prices as the effects of the drought in the US begin to disseminate. We should also keep an eye on oil prices as tensions continue to rise on the issue of Iranian influence in the Middle East.
Stephen Walt has a great essay on foreign policy and the US election. Both Obama and Romney have not paid a great deal of attention to foreign policy, but it is a critical part of the job and we can’t afford to ignore those concerns.
The increasing exploitation of natural resources is a matter of great concern, but perhaps the most important resource constraint humanity is facing is fresh water. The overuse of fresh water is staggering, and for those areas that rely on underground aquifers, the concern is that these aquifers are being depleted at a rate that cannot be sustained. This map provides a rough idea of where these areas are and how severe the depletion rate is.
The intelligence “war” between the US and Israel on the Iranian nuclear weapons program continues. There is a report that President Obama has received a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that claims that Iran is no on the verge of building a nuclear weapon and that it has not even made a decision to build one. The Israelis are making a claim that suggests that the situation is becoming even more urgent. We are left in a world of “reports” about “reports.” Obviously, a decision to go to war requires much more certitude than seems to currently be the case.
It is always important to remember that all political problems are, in theory, resolvable. We often fall into the trap of thinking that political disputes are etched in stone. They are not–the positions taken reflect one possible interpretation of interests and values. Interpretations, however, can be changed. What matters is imagination and a desire to solve the problems. Such is the case in the boundary disputes in the South China Sea which reflect the competing positions of China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia. Each of these states asserts that their positions are immutable. But with just some simple differences in assumptions, all these disputes can disappear.
As we watch the Arab Spring unfold in a bewildering variety of forms, it is useful to think about how revolutions are often perceived by outsiders. Foreign Policy has an interesting essay on how the British viewed the American Revolution.
The Iranians have publicly declared their support for the Syrian regime, even as defections within Assad’s inner circle continue. The visit by Iranian officials is a signal of how important the Iranians regard the Syrian alliance. It is also a signal to the Russians and to the Americans. The geopolitical stakes are increasing in this situation.
The Philippines is the latest victim of extreme weather as heavy rains pounded the capital of Manila. About 30% of the city was under at least waist-deep water. The city was already reeling from flooding a few days ago from Typhoon Saola.
We use nation-states all the time as the essential unit of analysis in world politics. But most everything that is important ignores territorial boundaries. Zero-Hedge posted an interesting article and map on unemployment in Europe. The lines of unemployment follow their own logic.
New York state has filed charges against a British investment bank, Standard Chartered, for doing business with Iran in violation of the various laws that have been passed by the US Congress against such transactions. Apparently these transactions have been going on for some time and the New York office wired the British home office about the serious implications of continuing them in 2006. The response of the British office is outlined in the New York complaint and it is a classic. From page 5 of the complaint: “As quoted by an SCB New York branch officer, the Group Director caustically replied: ‘You f—ing Americans. Who are you to tell us, the rest of the world, that we’re not going to deal with Iranians.'” Such is life in a globalized world.
Many analysts assert that poverty breeds terrorism and violence against authority. That connection seems logical, but it doesn’t sit well with the normal experiences of poor people: they have precious little time to devote to such activities. Now research has been done testing the proposition, and it seems as if the connection really does not exist. Poor people often suffer greatly at the hands of terrorists and have little sympathy for their activities.
Foreign investors almost inevitably arouse animosity over time, and the Chinese seem to be experiencing the anti-imperialist backlash common to raw materials investment. In Zambia, a Chinese supervisor was killed in a coal mine dispute over wages. China’s push into Africa has been substantial, and many of its investments are beginning to elicit similar reactions.
The Palestinians have renewed their effort to obtain non-member observer status at the United Nations. A meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement scheduled to be held in the West Bank was disrupted by the Israeli refusal to allow certain members of the movement, representing countries that do not have diplomatic relations with Israel, to enter the West Bank. The Israeli action is not fully consistent with the obligations it agreed to in the Oslo Accords of 1993. We will have to see how this action affects the Palestinian campaign to receive UN recognition.
The Russian press is reporting on US-Israeli plans to attack Iran. The Russians have good relations with Iran and Syria and are therefore paying a great deal of attention to the possibility of an attack on Iran given the current focus on instability in Syria. So it is difficult to assess how accurate the report actually is. On the other hand, the Russians have very good intelligence services, so it is not appropriate to dismiss the report out of hand. Pressures to attack Iran before November are increasing on almost a daily basis, and there are many forces in play right now. We should pay close attention to all bits of evidence.
The recent financial scandals (LIBOR being the most obvious, but there have been many others in the last decade) seem to stem from dramatic changes in the global financial industry (such as the creation of derivatives), but nothing could be further from the truth. Financial innovations are just tactical changes in the broader strategic game of trying to make money from money, itself an age-old game. Sometimes the game erupts in social and political violence, such as the Peasants’ Revolt in Europe in the late 14th Century. Some things never change.
Elaine Scarry, an author with whom I frequently disagree, has published an essay in the Boston Review worth reading. She makes a very intriguing argument about the impact of literature on the types of violence that occur in the world. In the argument, she tries to correlate her understanding with a broader argument being developed in the International Relations literature on the decline of violence as a whole in the world (Pinker, Goldstein). It is a thoughtful and rich essay.
The trial against the feminist punk rockers, Pussy Riot, turned into quite a show today, as many of the defense witnesses were not allowed to testify. Time magazine has a great article summarizing the issues involved, and the comparison with the show trials of the Stalin era.
The drought in the US has been getting a lot of attention and there’s no question that it is serious matter, perhaps even catastrophic for many farmers. But India is suffering under drought conditions as well, as the monsoon becomes less reliable. More people in India depend on farming than in the US, so the issue is more than just one of rising prices. Scientists have yet to explain the change in the monsoon, but many suspect that climate change is part of that process.
Kofi Annan has resigned as the primary peace negotiator for the United Nations in Syria. In his resignation speech, he blasted the members of the Security Council for their inability to engage in any meaningful action in the crisis. The resignation is a key signal that the major powers have decided to let the civil war in Syria decide the matter, regardless of the number of civilian lives lost. There is little evidence that the civil war has entered anything like a decisive phase, so the de facto decision means that the major powers are willing to tolerate a very large number of innocent lives lost.
The internet is truly one of the most extraordinary innovations in human history, but it has so far been unregulated by any international treaties. The structure of the internet is actually governed by a private, non-profit organization called the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN). Nominally, ICANN operates under the authority of the US Department of Commerce, and, of course, every national state can regulate the internet as it wishes to (as long as it has the ability to do so). Many countries wish to put the internet under the control of the International Telecommunications Union, which handles most matters of communications across national borders. The US is resisting these efforts, fearing that the ITU may place controls on the internet that could compromise its autonomy.
World Politics News 