New York state has filed charges against a British investment bank, Standard Chartered, for doing business with Iran in violation of the various laws that have been passed by the US Congress against such transactions. Apparently these transactions have been going on for some time and the New York office wired the British home office about the serious implications of continuing them in 2006. The response of the British office is outlined in the New York complaint and it is a classic. From page 5 of the complaint: “As quoted by an SCB New York branch officer, the Group Director caustically replied: ‘You f—ing Americans. Who are you to tell us, the rest of the world, that we’re not going to deal with Iranians.'” Such is life in a globalized world.
Many analysts assert that poverty breeds terrorism and violence against authority. That connection seems logical, but it doesn’t sit well with the normal experiences of poor people: they have precious little time to devote to such activities. Now research has been done testing the proposition, and it seems as if the connection really does not exist. Poor people often suffer greatly at the hands of terrorists and have little sympathy for their activities.
Foreign investors almost inevitably arouse animosity over time, and the Chinese seem to be experiencing the anti-imperialist backlash common to raw materials investment. In Zambia, a Chinese supervisor was killed in a coal mine dispute over wages. China’s push into Africa has been substantial, and many of its investments are beginning to elicit similar reactions.
The Palestinians have renewed their effort to obtain non-member observer status at the United Nations. A meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement scheduled to be held in the West Bank was disrupted by the Israeli refusal to allow certain members of the movement, representing countries that do not have diplomatic relations with Israel, to enter the West Bank. The Israeli action is not fully consistent with the obligations it agreed to in the Oslo Accords of 1993. We will have to see how this action affects the Palestinian campaign to receive UN recognition.
The Russian press is reporting on US-Israeli plans to attack Iran. The Russians have good relations with Iran and Syria and are therefore paying a great deal of attention to the possibility of an attack on Iran given the current focus on instability in Syria. So it is difficult to assess how accurate the report actually is. On the other hand, the Russians have very good intelligence services, so it is not appropriate to dismiss the report out of hand. Pressures to attack Iran before November are increasing on almost a daily basis, and there are many forces in play right now. We should pay close attention to all bits of evidence.
The recent financial scandals (LIBOR being the most obvious, but there have been many others in the last decade) seem to stem from dramatic changes in the global financial industry (such as the creation of derivatives), but nothing could be further from the truth. Financial innovations are just tactical changes in the broader strategic game of trying to make money from money, itself an age-old game. Sometimes the game erupts in social and political violence, such as the Peasants’ Revolt in Europe in the late 14th Century. Some things never change.
Elaine Scarry, an author with whom I frequently disagree, has published an essay in the Boston Review worth reading. She makes a very intriguing argument about the impact of literature on the types of violence that occur in the world. In the argument, she tries to correlate her understanding with a broader argument being developed in the International Relations literature on the decline of violence as a whole in the world (Pinker, Goldstein). It is a thoughtful and rich essay.
The trial against the feminist punk rockers, Pussy Riot, turned into quite a show today, as many of the defense witnesses were not allowed to testify. Time magazine has a great article summarizing the issues involved, and the comparison with the show trials of the Stalin era.
The drought in the US has been getting a lot of attention and there’s no question that it is serious matter, perhaps even catastrophic for many farmers. But India is suffering under drought conditions as well, as the monsoon becomes less reliable. More people in India depend on farming than in the US, so the issue is more than just one of rising prices. Scientists have yet to explain the change in the monsoon, but many suspect that climate change is part of that process.
Kofi Annan has resigned as the primary peace negotiator for the United Nations in Syria. In his resignation speech, he blasted the members of the Security Council for their inability to engage in any meaningful action in the crisis. The resignation is a key signal that the major powers have decided to let the civil war in Syria decide the matter, regardless of the number of civilian lives lost. There is little evidence that the civil war has entered anything like a decisive phase, so the de facto decision means that the major powers are willing to tolerate a very large number of innocent lives lost.
The internet is truly one of the most extraordinary innovations in human history, but it has so far been unregulated by any international treaties. The structure of the internet is actually governed by a private, non-profit organization called the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN). Nominally, ICANN operates under the authority of the US Department of Commerce, and, of course, every national state can regulate the internet as it wishes to (as long as it has the ability to do so). Many countries wish to put the internet under the control of the International Telecommunications Union, which handles most matters of communications across national borders. The US is resisting these efforts, fearing that the ITU may place controls on the internet that could compromise its autonomy.
In keeping with the Olympic spirit, the BBC has published some information regarding the national anthems of various states. National anthems are a source of nationalist pride, but the history of some of these songs in hardly in keeping with the romantic images they inspire.
Reuters has published an article about a secret order issued by President Obama authorizing secret operations in support of the Syrian rebels. The report does not come as much of a surprise, but its disclosure suggests that the Obama Administration wants the world to know that it is taking action in the face of the atrocities. There has been no reaction yet by the Russians or the Iranians to the news, but the action clearly has the support of Turkey.
The US has long supported Rwanda against charges that it was fostering violence in neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo. That policy has just recently changed because of the overwhelming evidence against Rwanda. The change is long overdue and represents a victory of ethics over narrowly defined interests.
India has suffered the largest electrical blackout in human history, with about 700 million people without power. The effects of the blackout have been less than catastrophic given that many Indians have for years learned how to cope with periodic blackouts, but it is instructive to think about what would happen in a country like the US under such conditions (where very few individuals have their own back-up generators). The collapse, however, speaks volumes about the state of infrastructure in India and the episode is a blow to India’s aspirations to be regarded as a great power. Those who would make such judgments, however, should assess how decrepit the electrical power grid of most countries is right now–India is certainly not alone.
One of the most prominent skeptics of human-induced climate change has changed his position. After a careful review of all the relevant evidence, Professor Richard Muller, a professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, now believes that “‘the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct,’ and that humans are ‘almost entirely the cause’ of that warming.” What is most interesting, however, about the Business Insider report is that it nowhere mentions that Muller’s research was partially funded by “$150,000 from the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, which, along with its libertarian petrochemical billionaire founder, has historically backed groups that deny climate change.”
Stephen Walt, my favorite realist, has an interesting take on the Romney visit to Israel. The domestic politics argument is a familiar one, but more nuanced than usual. What is most interesting is Walt’s observation about Presidents Carter and H.W. Bush. There is likely a lesson to be learned, but it is utterly unlikely that anyone will learn that lesson soon.
Words matter a great deal in world politics. There has been a lot of press attention to how a senior Romney aide interpreted Governor Romney’s likely policy toward Iran. That aide stressed that the Governor would support military efforts to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability. President Obama has drawn the line at preventing Iran from possessing nuclear weapons. The difference is substantial: “capability” can be interpreted as being anywhere along in the process of developing nuclear weapons, whereas the possession of nuclear weapons is a very clear point in time. I am not sure that the American people believe that this distinction is important, but foreign policy very rarely plays a significant role in American elections.
There is a very serious battle being waged in the city of Aleppo in Syria. Aleppo is the financial center of Syria, and its inhabitants were initially supportive of Assad since business depended a great deal on political stability and connections. But the situation has changed dramatically and Assad is waging an all-out attack on the city to bring it back under government control. Many lives are at stake and the symbolic outcome of the battle is very important.
There is an important political test going on in Russia. Three dissidents are in jail for protesting Vladimir Putin’s government, and the outcome of the trial will determine how much latitude political freedoms will be given in Russia. The dissidents, a punk rock group known as “Pussy Riot”, protested in a church and will likely receive little sympathy from much of the Russian population.
Robert Wright has a great essay in The Atlantic which parses through various reports in the media of a speech given by the Iranian president, Ahmadinejad. The thread of the essay is that the various different ways words can be interpreted leads to a high degree of misleading reporting. His example is a good thing to keep in mind whenever one is reading about volatile political matters in the press.
The Israeli-Palestinian dispute has received very little attention lately, and one should not doubt that the inattention is deliberate. Much is changing in the region, and the chances for peace are becoming increasingly remote. One powerful reason is that the Israeli settlements in the West Bank continue to grow in size, and there are now over 350,000 in the Occupied territory. The chances for a two-state solution become significantly less likely with each passing day.
It is very difficult to predict how long the end game will last in Syria. Two more diplomats have defected from the Assad regime, and it seems clear that the days of the regime are numbered. But the end game is the most treacherous part of the game, and Assad shows little willingness to step down. The violence does not seem to be easing up at all, and now the major cities of Aleppo and Damascus are heavily involved. The flow of refugees out of Syria has grown considerably. There really are no options for Assad. And yet Syrians continue to die.
Ghana’s President John Atta Mills has died and his death is a great loss. President Mills solidified democracy in Ghana and the passing of the torch to his vice-president, John Mahama, was immediate and seamless. While Ghana has lost a great leader, it has also shown the world a civic maturity about which it can be extremely proud.
World Politics News 