The leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, Abdullah Ocalan, has called for a cease-fire with Turkey. The conflict between the Kurds and the TUrks has been going on for a very long time, but the modern phase of the conflict has lasted almost thirty years and claimed more than 40,000 lives. This step is an important one for Turkey as it struggles to claim regional hegemony in the Middle East. Much of the movement within the Kurdish population stems from the realignment of power between Iraq and its Kurds and Syria and its Kurds. Whether these changes can finally reach some stable equilibrium satisfactory to the Kurdish people remains to be seen, but this step is important.
A new party, highly critical of German membership in the European Union, has been steadily gaining power over recent months. The party, the Alternative for Germany Party, directly challenges Angela Merkel’s commitment to the EU, and its ascent has raised questions about how flexible Chancellor Merkel can be on the Cyprus issue (as well as the other bailouts in the eurozone). The Alternative for Germany Party mirrors the United Kingdom Independence party in England, which has a similar skepticism about the EU and which has also risen substantially in the polls recently. These stresses on the Union are making coherent policy-making in the economic crisis very difficult.
Tonight is the deadline for some sort of agreement on the banking crisis in Cyprus. There are rumors swirling through the blogosphere, none of which can be verified. We should know a little more in the morning, but I suspect that whatever agreements are reached will also be subject to considerable pressures that will inevitably make them tentative. What is certain is that the people of Cyprus are getting a very bad deal.
The New York Times interviewed several young people who were in the audience for President Obama’s speech in Israel. As I indicated in an earlier post, I thought Obama’s speech was brilliant. Reading the statements from the audience it is clear that he touched a genuine chord. Although Obama did not accomplish much in terms of specific changes in the situation in his trip, I think that he laid some very important seeds in the minds of the next generation. Never underestimate the power of ideas.
The melting of the polar ice cap has opened up new strategic possibilities for a number of countries, and the jockeying for territorial claims has been a fascinating exercise. But the recent Chinese moves in Iceland have been nothing short of surreal. A Chinese company, headed by a former official in the Communist Party, has been angling to buy/lease almost 100 square miles of wilderness in Iceland to build a golf course. High marks for creativity–Bismarck would have been proud.
I often feel as if the details of world politics are beyond human comprehension, and that the social sciences can never hope to be able to describe reality with the same precision as the natural sciences. But I take refuge in the fact that the natural sciences know even less than the social sciences. The European Space Agency has been able to determine the composition of the universe with astonishing precision with its new Planck telescope. According to the ESA here is what we know about the reality of the universe:
If I read the pie chart correctly, physics can explain about 4.9% of the universe. If you were to ask a physicist what dark matter is (26.8% of the universe) and what dark energy is (68.3% of the universe), you would get the honest answer: “We don’t know.” Ignorance loves company.
President Obama gave a very important speech in Israel today. There is much in the speech with which one could disagree–indeed, I doubt that anyone could give a speech on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that would not elicit some disagreement. But there was a carefulness and soberness in the speech that deserves careful consideration. His defense of a viable Palestinian state and how necessary it is to the moral survival of Israel was incredibly powerful. Let us hope that others think deeply about his insight.
The banking situation in Cyprus continues to deteriorate, but the reaction of the world remains muted. There is the world of reality here (Cyprus is so small that its collapse will have very little effect) and a world of perception (the global banking system has been on the rocks since 2008 and Cyprus might be the last straw). How the world finally interprets the crisis will depend largely on how visible it becomes. If protests break out on the island, then people will become much more concerned than they are right now.
President Obama is in Israel right now. He received a warm welcome from Prime Minster Netanyahu, but a rather frosty reception from the Palestinians. There is rhetoric from the US side about the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian impasses, but very little evidence that there are any new ideas or initiatives toward that end.
South Korea was hit by a rather extensive cyber attack that shut down TV stations and ATM machines throughout the nation. The attack was a “wiper” virus that essentially erases files, very similar to attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities last year. The South obviously suspects the North Koreans of launching the attack, but we will wait for further details before a determination is made. It is unclear what kind of response would be appropriate in such circumstances–North Korea lacks a similar vulnerability among its civilian population.
Many in Greece are applauding the Cypriot decision to reject the terms of the bank bailout offered by the Troika. This response is just one of the many ripple effects expected from the Cypriot decision. As Cyprus tries to formulate an alternative, many are speculating on whether Cyprus will turn to Russia for aid in return form military bases or for concessions on reputed natural gas fields off the coast of Cyprus. It will be interesting to see how the Turks will respond to this intrusion of Russia power.
24 prisoners at Guantanamo are on a prolonged hunger strike. The strike is a way of drawing attention to their plight: imprisonment without any clear charges or any specified legal processes leading to a determination of guilt or innocence. The prisoners at Guantanamo are casualties of the war on terror and the inability of the US government to figure out the legal processes by which to try them. The legal limbo is a serious violation of the human rights of the prisoners and a profound failure of the American commitment to the rule of law.
President Obama is scheduled to visit Israel and the first topic of conversation between Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will be the Iranian nuclear program. Obama clearly does not wish to be put into a corner by Netanyahu, but the evidence suggests that Israel is moving closer to taking action on its own. The BBC has an interesting piece on Israeli calculations on the merits of a pre-emptive strike on Iran.
The Cypriot Parliament has rejected the Troika’s bailout offer–not a single member of Parliament voted in favor of the tax on depositors. It’s difficult to overestimate how serious the situation is: Cyprus’s banks are virtually insolvent and the banks deposits are 8 times larger than the entire GDP of Cyprus (due to the attractiveness of the country as a offshore tax haven and money launderer). The Parliament will likely make another offer, but any deal that involves another tax on deposits will be problematic. Then Germany will have to decide whether to continue to insist that depositors have to pay for the sins of their banks or chance Cyprus’s departure from the eurozone. The stakes are very high and no matter what happens, the ripples will spread far and wide.
As we continue the international debates about austerity vs. stimulus, we should all keep in mind that certain budget items remain sacrosanct. One of the special budget items is the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter plane currently being developed by Lockheed. The plane was first proposed in 2001 and, despite billions of dollars being spent on it, there are no operational planes currently in the air. Each of these planes is estimated to cost about $165 million, and over 2,000 of them are being proposed for the military. It is likely that over $400 billion will be spent on the planes.
The situation in Cyprus continues to unfold. The banking holiday has been extended until Thursday to avoid panic, but it’s not clear why: the tax has already been imposed on the deposits so withdrawing money will not save anyone a single dime. Many, however, are waking up to the fact that ordinary depositors are being asked to sacrifice in order to preserve Cyprus’s status as an offshore banking site for illicit Russian money. The troika is arguing that the tax is an extraordinary event, and one not to be repeated in any other banking system. We’ll see if the European publics believe them There was no run on any other banks in Europe today so calm may be the order of the day. On the other hand, you can listen to this very angry British taxi driver [WARNING: this chap has a very foul mouth–don’t listen to the video if there are others around you who might be offended]
Gender equality is a profound stimulus to economic development. Recent studies have indicated that the lack of equality in India has chopped off about 4% annually of the Indian GNP. For a country in which women have achieved a high degree of political success, the lack of gender equality among ordinary women in India is striking.
The European Central Bank, the European Union, and the International Monetary Fund (the “Troika” to those of you who have been following European economic affairs) has announced its terms for the bailout of the banking system of Cyprus. Cyprus is not a big economy so most observers did not think that the bailout terms would be highly consequential. But the Troika has decided that the bank depositors should share in the pain of the bailout and demanded that a 10% tax be levied on all savings accounts. Needless to say, the depositors are not pleased and there was a run on the ATMs of the banks today. Monday is a holiday and there is speculation that a banking holiday will be declared for Tuesday in order to prevent a run on the banks that could force some to collapse. The danger is not that Cypriot banks will fail, but that depositors in banks of other precarious countries (like Italy or Spain) could fear a similar tax in the future and will begin to pull their money out of those banks as well. The futures markets all over the world are roiling right now and it should be interesting on Monday morning when they open for real.
As I indicated yesterday, there are many who are analyzing the decision to go to war with Iraq ten years ago. The British are going through a similar bout of introspection, and the general consensus is that the then-Prime Minister, Tony Blair, did not do a very good job of threat assessment or war planning. There is very little positive assessment of the war in most of the post-mortems I have read. Nonetheless, there are reports surfacing that the CIA is drawing up contingency plans for drone strikes in Syria. Somehow, some lessons are almost impossible to learn.
Tapes from the Administration of Lyndon Johnson have been released that have left me absolutely dumbfounded. The Vietnam War was a central feature of my college life and I was strongly opposed to the war. There are certain moments that I remember well, one of which was the announcement by Johnson that he would not run again for the presidency in 1968. Apparently, however, he contemplated attending the Democratic Party Convention in 1968 when it was almost completely disrupted by protests to place his name in the nomination (which he likely would have received). The tapes also revealed that the Republican candidate, Richard Nixon, who ultimately won the election in 1968, sabotaged the Paris Peace negotiations between the US and North Vietnam because he feared that a successful peace agreement would prevent him from winning the election.
I’ve been studying world politics for most of my adult life, and I have analyzed many acts of treachery. But Nixon’s decision to prolong the war (and all the consequent deaths) so that he could win the election is perhaps the most despicable episode I’ve ever read about.
The Watson Institute at Brown University is one of the most creative and innovative think-tanks in the field of world politics. It recently published a very impressive report on the costs of the Iraq War, looking at not just the economic costs of the war, but the overall human costs. For anyone interested in thinking seriously about all the variables associated with waging war, the report is an excellent way to think about the hidden, as well as the obvious, concerns. Here is a link to the section on the economic costs: $3-4 trillion as of now.
We’ve been following the large list of protest movements in Europe this winter, trying to figure out if there are any common threads that unite them. We’re still looking, but we’re getting more insight into some of the specific protests. From Open Democracy, here’s a good analysis of what happened in Bulgaria last February that led to the collapse of the government.
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has issued a statement opposing the declaration proposed by the U.N. Commission on the Status of Women. According to Reuters, “the Muslim Brotherhood warned the declaration would give girls sexual freedom, legalize abortion, provide teenagers with contraceptives, give equality to women in marriage and require men and women to share duties such as child care and chores.” It is unclear whether any agreement on any declaration could be achieved within the UN.
The EU is holding a summit meeting in Brussels over the direction the Union should take on the failing economic situation. There seems to be a growing chorus questioning the austerity programs that have been implemented over the last three years, but there are no signs that the principal proponent of that strategy, Germany, is interested in changing. We’ll keep an eye on the meeting to see how the debate unfolds.
Electricity usage is one of the most common metrics for measuring economic activity. But we can now see electric lights from space, and the changes in brightness over time can tell us a great deal about the rate of change in economic activity. The Atlantic has posted some stunning photos from space of especially dynamic areas in the world. And one dramatically non-dynamic area of the world–North Korea.
France has now joined Britain in urging arms sales to the Syrian rebels. It’s not clear how such a policy would end the violence more quickly–indeed, it might simply make the situation more desperate–but the world seems to think that the policy is justified. I would suggest that a stronger commitment to a diplomatic solution is more likely to succeed.
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