The US has announced that it is postponing a missile test out of California in order to not aggravate the tension between it and North Korea. The Chinese also issued a rebuke to its ally for causing a tense situation. The two moves are calculated to give North Korea a chance to back away from the standoff. The chances are highly likely, however, that the North will launch a missile next 15 April, the birthday of Kim Il Sung, the father of the current leader. Much will depend on the nature of the missile launch.
The negotiations between the P5+1 (the UN Security Council Permanent members and Germany) and Iran concluded without any signs of tangible progress. Iran has voluntarily slowed down some of its operations but refuses to concede its right to enrich uranium for medical research. Needless to say, the P5+1 believes that the enrichment program is designed to develop sufficient fuel for an atomic bomb. The negotiations have eased some of the tension, but it is likely that Israel will take the failed negotiations as a sign that peaceful measures will not work.
Portugal’s approved deficit reduction plan with the troika was shot down by the country’s highest court which held that some of the budget cuts were unconstitutional. The ruling means that Portugal must find other cuts to meet the deficit reductions demanded by the EU. The disarray will likely roil the world markets as austerity plans are getting harder to sell to a very reluctant public.
Cyberwarfare is being waged at a furious pace. US banks have been attacked over the last six months with denial of service attacks resulting in over 249 hours of downtime for the websites of American banks. Anonymous has declared 7 April as a day of attacks against the Israeli government and has claimed to have shut down or defaced over 9000 websites in Israel. It is very hard to verify the severity of the attacks, but the scale of attacks is extraordinary.
Something to keep an eye on. A new influenza virus, H7N9, has been detected in China. Additional cases have been found in other countries as well, but China seems to be ground zero for the strain. It is exceedingly difficult to figure out how flu viruses will spread, and most of the time the viruses do not really catch hold in human populations. In those rare cases, however, when they do become easily transmissible the consequences can be deadly (the 1918 influenza pandemic killed millions). Disease has often had a decisive effect on world politics, so we should watch how this new bug evolves.
The Guardian and a number of intrepid journalists have begun to pull the cover off of the huge amount of money being held in offshore accounts by individuals wishing to avoid taxation. Obviously, it is very difficult to get a handle on the total amount, but estimates are that as much as $20 trillion could be hidden away (out of a total World GDP of about $70 trillion). Just think what your taxes would be like if everyone paid their full share.
I’ve been away, giving a speech at SUNY-Geneseo on American foreign policy. SUNY-Geneseo is a great school and the students were wonderful: they asked great questions and were quite knowledgeable. But I wasn’t able to post any blogs while I was away. My apologies.
The standoff with North Korea continues to escalate and it’s hard to figure out where the crisis is heading. Obviously North Korea is looking for some sort of recognition as a nuclear power, but its rhetoric makes it difficult to treat it with respect. The US’s attempts to signal its commitment to South Korea seem only to inflame the North Koreans even more, but it is difficult for the US to do nothing while an ally is being threatened. In the meantime, we can only hope that there aren’t some unforeseen accidents that might precipitate an outbreak of hostilities.
Regular readers of this blog know that I have been worried about the rise of right wing movements in the world. This fear dates back to the onset of the Great Recession in 2007, and has only grown stronger in my mind. Other scholars have picked up on this worrisome trend and have written about the phenomenon. Here is an interview with Joshua Kurlantzick, author of the book, Democracy in Retreat: The Revolt of the Middle Class and the Worldwide Decline of Representative Government, which I have on my reading list for this summer.
We are all going to be hearing about Bitcoins an awful lot in the near future. Bitcoins are a virtual currency issued by no government and governed by a mysterious set of algorithms that no one has been able to hack. Weirdly, people are attaching values to the Bitcoins and using them as “normal” currency. We should become better informed about this new currency.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is a British financial columnist who writes for the London Telegraph and is extraordinarily perceptive. One of his more recent posts on the Cyprus crisis is especially bleak, but it is hard to find fault with his argument. One cannot imagine the euro persisting in its present form without some serious changes. But those changes are highly unlikely in the middle of a crisis.
The controversy over the use of drones is a difficult one to navigate because of the absence of hard information. Here’s an article that parses out what little we know how the effectiveness of drone strikes. It’s helpful, but don’t look for a resolution of the controversy. Significantly, it confirms what many of us have suspected: that drones are almost always used with the consent of states in which the strikes occur, even if those states later publicly state that their sovereignty has been violated.
A Harvard study has indicated that the total cost of the Iraq and Afghan wars, when one includes the full medical costs of the veterans through their expected lifetimes, could reach between $4 and $6 trillion. When White House officials starting talking about the wars in 2002, the estimates floated at the time were around $200 billion. It’s incredible how much money was spent on these wars, most of which was borrowed money.
North Korea has announced that it is now in “a state of war” with South Korea, and that all decisions will now be made according to wartime protocol. It’s not clear what the declaration means, since the North announced a few days ago that was abrogating the armistice with the South, indicating that the war which ceased in 1953 was now renewed. I haven’t read anything so far which makes the rhetoric out of the North any more comprehensible. It is difficult to figure out how seriously one should take the rhetoric.
The International Monetary Fund has issued a new report, blasting the nations of the world for granting economic subsidies for fossil fuel production. The IMF has a long track record of attacking subsidies, but typically it has focused on government subsidies for poor people. This report, however, focuses on not only tax benefits for fossil fuel producers, but also includes the costs of not adequately pricing the cost of carbon pollution. With this expanded definition of subsidies, the IMF found that oil and coal producers receive a global subsidy of roughly $1.9 trillion.
The Economist has published a fascinating report on the growth of Indian military power. The numbers are straightforward: the Indian military is one of the largest in the world. But Indian strategy toward the world is not clearly defined. Who are the enemies? What is the strategic vision? A very good analysis.
The US is joining in the war of words in the Korean peninsula. It decided to send two stealth bombers (capable of carrying nuclear weapons) over South korea to signal its intention to defend South Korea against a nuclear attack. One can understand why the US wants its commitment to the South to be crystal clear, it is not clear that sending such a provocative signal is a good idea. We’ll see how the North responds.
In a dramatic change, the UN Security Council has authorized its peacekeeping forces in central Africa to use force to track down rebel guerrillas Typically, UN forces are tied to a purely defensive position–they cannot fire their weapons unless they are fired upon first. The change is long overdue in central Africa which has experienced relentless violence for the last few years. THis initiative may be the stabiklizing force that the region desperately needs.
Answers to the UMass quiz on 28 March 2013
To be successful, a hegemonic system needs to be
Transparent b. accessible c. mutually beneficial d. even-handed
Which is the best example of projective military power?
The tank b. the aircraft carrier c. the stealth bomber d. the drone
What commodity was the basis for American economic power in the 20th century?
Petroleum b. gold c. iron ore d. platinum
What country refused to take on the role of hegemon in the aftermath of World War I?
Germany b. the Soviet Union c. Great Britain d. the US
Prior to World War I, Germany feared a two-front war with France and
Great Britain b. Russia c. Poland d. Austria
World War I started with the German invasion of what country?
Belgium b. France c. Holland d. Serbia
Woodrow Wilson introduced the idea of collective security and what other idea to the world in 1918.
Self-determination b. balanced obligations c. free trade d. freedom of the seas
What country experienced hyperinflation in 1923?
The US b. Germany c. France d. Soviet Union
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff was introduced by what country?
The Soviet Union b. Japan c. Britain d. the US
A just war can only be waged to
redress an injury b. avenge an insult c. take territory d. balance the system
The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are meeting in South Africa to discuss the mutual interests of emerging market economies. These countries are quite deliberately trying to structure a viable alternative to the Bretton Woods Institutions. The BRICS are convinced that the domination of the US, Europe and Japan in the existing institutions compromises their growth possibilities Today they discussed the creation of a development bank to compete with the World Bank.
China and Vietnam had a military confrontation in the South China Sea a few days ago. The dispute revolves around territorial claims that have defied resolution. China’s claims are not consistent with the UN Law of the Seas Convention, but China refuses to have its claims mediated. Both sides are trying to downplay the military significance of the confrontation, but the situation remains quite tense.
Banks in Cyprus are scheduled to open on Thursday and security will be very tight as officials fear that frightened depositors will overwhelm the baking system. There is also a rising chorus of anger as rumors continue to swirl that rich depositors (Russians who used Cyprus as a tax shelter) were able to take much of their money out of the Cypriot banks due to the connivance of the Bank of Cyprus. The hint of massive corruption in the banking system could trigger violent protests on the island.
I posted several articles on recent provocative statements coming out of North Korea. The rhetoric has been unusually fierce over the last few days, including threats against Hawaii and Guam. Suspicions are that the fiery rhetoric is in response to changes in UN policies South Korean policies. Whether the rhetoric is indicative of a definite change in previous behavior remains to be seen. But it is clear that the states in East Asia, including China, are not at all sympathetic to North Korea.
There have been protests in Cyprus against the troika bailout plan. At this point it does not appear as if the plan is in jeopardy, but the Cypriot people are looking at the end of their main economic advantage–offshore banking for rich clients. Experts are predicting that the GDP of Cyprus may decline as much as 23% in the coming year if the financial industry in Cyprus collapses.
Violence against Muslims has erupted again in Burma. A few months ago, violence against Muslims known as Rohingyas broke out in one of provinces of Burma. The communal violence has been simmering for years, and the outbreak of violence is most likely correlated with the loosening of the power of the military. Dealing with the violence, however, has to be a top priority for the government.
Concerns about the Cyprus bank bailout continue to simmer. The new concern is that many people with deposits larger than 100,00 euro were able to take out their money before the capital controls went into force. If true, then the restructuring will not raise the $13 billion necessary. Cyprus had initially ordered its banks to open on Tuesday–that order has been rescinded and now the banks have to remain closed until Thursday. The Cyprus story is far from over.
Source: The Economist, 25 March 2013
A Palestinian protest camp set up to draw attention to Israeli settlements has been taken down by Israeli authorities. The protest has been going on and off for several months, but the most recent camp was set up specifically to draw attention during President Obama’s visit to Israel. Unfortunately, the peaceful protest drew very little attention from the media.
Stephen Walt has published a very intelligent blog post on the difference between realism and constructivism using President Obama’s trip to Israel as a case study. Definitely worth reading.
World Politics News 