The US is building a new class of aircraft carriers which are the most expensive military instruments ever built. The U.S.S. Gerald Fordwill feature some extraordinary capabilities, but each of us will have to judge whether it is worth $11.5 billion. The intent is to build three of these ships at a total cost of more than $40 billion. Of course, it is highly likely that these cost figures will increase dramatically. And it is unclear whether any other country will try to match this firepower at any point in the near future.
The Constitution Project’s Task Force on Detainee Treatment has issued a scathing report on the use of torture by the United States in its “war” on terror. The 11-member committee was comprised of highly qualified and experienced individuals, and the report has great credibility. Among some of its findings include these conclusion
“Torture occurred in many instances and across a wide range of theaters”
There is “no firm or persuasive evidence” that the use of such techniques yielded “significant information of value”
The use of torture has “no justification” and “damaged the standing of our nation, reduced our capacity to convey moral censure when necessary and potentially increased the danger to U.S. military personnel taken captive”
“As long as the debate continues, so too does the possibility that the United States could again engage in torture”
The Obama administration’s keeping the details of rendition and torture from the public “cannot continue to be justified on the basis of national security”, and it should stop blocking lawsuits by former detainees on the basis of claiming “state secrets”
We can only hope that the President and the Congress will heed these findings.
The FBI has released photographs of two individuals who it believes are suspects in the bombing in Boston. Welcome to the new world: thousands of photographs and videos of a crime scene in real time, and perhaps the world’s first crowd-sourced manhunt. We should perhaps think seriously about the nature of that world before we wholeheartedly embrace it.
In 2010 Harvard University economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published a paper, based largely on their book, This Time It’s Different. The paper suggested that there was a correlation (not a causal relationship, as Rogoff and Reinhart were careful to point out) between a public debt of more than 90% of a nation’s GDP and slow economic growth. The hypothesis was used by many, especially Congressman Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s Vice-Presidential candidate in the 2012 election) to justify strong measures to reduce public debt. Indeed, the hypothesis was cited by some economists in the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to justify harsh austerity measures in several European states with high public debt. In now turns out that there were many errors in the study, and the correlation is now open to question. So the question is now whether the austerity measures imposed were in fact justified. Obviously more research is necessary, but it is disheartening to think that the unemployment rates in Greece and Spain (upwards of 35%) are due to flawed analysis.
A new form of bank protest has emerged in Spain and has rapidly spread across Europe. Flash mobs are assembling in all sorts of bank facilities and doing a flamenco (a dance form with strong anti-government roots in Spain). You can find information about this protest movement at flo6x8, but here is a You Tube example of the protest. Check out the security officer as he tries to figure out what to do. I especially like the guy in the cow outfit.
China has published its own “white paper” in response to the US white paper that outlined a US military “pivot” from Europe to East Asia. Not surprisingly, China believes that the US shift of military resources to the Pacific is a destabilizing move, and that it plans to counter the US move with a build-up of its own military. Tensions are undeniably on the rise in that region, with nationalism resurfacing in Japan and South Korea, the nuclear ambitions of North Korea, and the new assertiveness on the part of the Chinese military. We should hope that these changes can be slowly assimilated into a new equilibrium in the region.
Five separate UN agencies issued a plea for an end to the carnage in Syria. The joint plea was unprecedented and intended to put pressure on the political decision-making of the UN. The five agencies are all charged with providing humanitarian assistance to war-torn regions, and they warned that they could no longer guarantee that they could discharge their responsibilities in Syria. It’s not clear what action the agencies proposed, and it is unlikely that the Security Council will act in any different way because of the plea.
Twice a year, the IMF issues a report on its expectations for economic growth. This time, the IMF is predicting markedly slower growth for the world, and for the European Union in particular. The news is grim because the economic forecasts have been steadily lowered each time over the last three years. There is no reason to expect that this time the IMF will be any more accurate, and economic growth will probably be lower than that predicted by the IMF.
The conspiracy theories about the bombings in Boston are racing around the internet. Ignore them. I am not aware of anyone who has any substantive information about what happened that is not generally available. Which means that no one knows anything. Now is the time for hard, clinical, sober analysis: dispassion is essential. Wait for the evidence; indeed, wait for the evidence to be corroborated by several reliable news sources. And keep your mind completely open to all possibilities as you examine the evidence. One of the lessons of 11 September 2001 is that rumors were allowed to fly free, and hysteria and ignorant thinking was allowed to permeate our discussions, with catastrophic consequences.
Samir Naji al Hasan Moqbel is a detainee at Guantanamo. In his words: “I have never been charged with any crime. I have never received a trial.” He is currently on a hunger strike with other detainees and has written an op-ed which was published in today’s New York Times. The correct way to think about this op-ed is to imagine that you are the prisoner: can you imagine what your feelings would be if you were in the same circumstance? Is this a standard of justice that you would endorse if you were the prisoner?
The German Council of Economic Experts, an advisory committee to Chancellor Merkel, is proposing a “wealth tax” on the rich as a way to raise money to support bank bailouts. Correctly, the Council believes that the rich simply avoid paying income taxes, and a tax on assets is the only way to get enough money to avoid default. Needless to say, the proposal is highly controversial, but it does go to the heart of the problem. We’ll see how far the proposal goes.
Nicolas Maduro and Henrique Capriles are running for the presidency of Venezuela, six weeks after the death of Hugo Chavez. Maduro wishes to carry on the Chavista legacy, whereas Capriles wants to change direction radically. The race is close and the results will be known tomorrow. But the election will make a huge difference, not only for Venezuela but also for much of Latin America.
For the first time 1998, global military spending has declined. The decline is significant for two reasons. First, it is largely due to the effects of the economic downturn in Europe and the US and both try to balance their budgets. Second, military spending increased in many other areas of the world, signaling the shift in the world balance of power. It seems as if the military balance will slwoly become more equal globally if the trend continues.
The Bank of Japan, like the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, has been following a policy of quantitative easing in an attempt to stimulate the Japanese economy. One of the consequences of these policies is that it can lead to currency devaluation because buyers of the currency fear that the loose money policies will lead to an oversupply of the currency. Currency devaluations can lead, however, to an unfair advantage in trade since the country’s exports will be artificially cheaper. Such policies are considered violations of free trade policies, and the US government has, for the first time, made that charge against Japan. This rift only adds to more difficulties for the Japanese.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a report that suggests that the Arctic will be ice-free by the middle of this century, and perhaps even sooner. Not only will this change lead to unanticipated changes in the climate, it will probably open up the Arctic to balance of power politics as nations will likely compete for the resources in the region. This consequence is the result of sowing the wind.
Paul Pillar used to work for the State Department, but has written extensively on the Iraq war and on the Iranian negotiations, often in terms quite critical of the US. He was also a friend of mine at Dartmouth. His recent essay on the Iranian negotiations asks some very important questions about what the US is trying to accomplish in the most recent negotiations with Iran.
The Harvard economist, Carmen Reinhart, had an interview with the German magazine, Der Spiegel, about the current policies of the world’s central banks. Those policies are loosely termed “quantitative easing” which is simply a policy of printing money in order to purchase long-term capital assets such as bonds. The policy of printing money always carries with it the risk of higher inflation, and Rienhart warns about that will happen if that situation arises in the future. It’s a pretty grim warning.
Chilean students have been protesting for a number of years against the lack of public funding for higher education in the country. The strikes get very little attention outside of Chile, but the protests represent a very sustained effort to force the country to address what the students believe to be a major cause of the income inequality in the country. The protests have recently picked up in intensity and the government is responding in force. There are elections scheduled soon in Chile and it will be interesting to see how the strikes affect the outcome.
Cypriots just learned that one of the conditions for the “bailout” of Cypriot banks also included the seizure of all of Cyprus’s gold reserves. Apparently, even the Cypriot Central Bank was not informed of this condition for the bailout. Needless to say, the seizure was not well-received. But the Central Banks of all the other weak eurozone countries that might require a similar bailout are quite apprehensive of similar conditions. The bailout conditions are nothing short of draconian and will unquestionably make it more difficult for weak governments to request outside assistance. Such reluctance will only make the solutions more difficult in the future.
A new study suggests that China’s overseas fishing catch may be as much as 12 time more than it has reported to international fisheries. China has the world’s largest fishing fleet, and the suggested number is certainly within the realm of possibility. However, if true, that level of fishing is not globally sustainable. Of particular concern is the fishing stocks off the coast of West Africa.
Source: Christopher Pala, “China Estimated to Dramatically Underreport Its Overseas Fishing Catch,” Scientific American, 2 April 2013.
The French Parliament is debating legislation designed to reduce the power of labor unions in the French economy, and the French unions are not taking the debate well. Many union workers are protesting the policies proposed by the Socialist Prime Minister Francois Hollande. The French economy is slowing down and it is unclear whether the legislation will pass.
Have you paid your taxes yet? Here’s where the money goes.
The North Korean situation continues to evolve as North Korea readies for a missile test. The US intelligence believes that the North Korean missiles are liquid-fueled which means that it is likely that the missiles will be fired within a few days (the US and other states use solid-fueled missiles which don’t need to be fired quickly–liquid fuel evaporates rapidly and it is a “use-it-or-lose-it situation”). Everything now depends on where the missiles are pointed. If it doesn’t appear as if it is targeted toward or near US or allied forces, then I suspect that nothing immediate will happen. If, however, it flies close to a vital target, the US, Japan, or South Korea will likely shoot it down. That will lead to a further confrontation.
Margaret Thatcher (or, “The Iron Lady”, as Mikhail Gorbachev called her) has dies and many are mourning her passing. It is appropriate to mourn the passing of a fellow human being, but, for many, Thatcher was a hero. I will confess that I do not fall into that category. Thatcher introduced some harsh reforms into the British economy, most notably the crushing of the coal miners union. “Thatcherism” is synonymous to neo-liberalism, the “Washington Consensus,” and, in the current jargon, austerity. Thus, I was very surprised to read in the German magazine, Der Spiegel, comments critical of her policies. Who knows? Many the Germans can be persuaded to relax some of their policies toward the economically weak eurozone states.
The controversy over the use of drones got more complicated today with the release of a report that suggests that US targeting of al-Qaeda militants is less precise than has been asserted by the US government. I’m not sure that this report will actually settle things, but it offers additional information to ponder.
In an earlier post, I mentioned the outbreak of a new strain of influenza in China. There have not been any independent reports of the outbreak, but apparently there are some curious aspects of the outbreak that need to be explained. As I suggested earlier, there is no reason to be especially worried about the outbreak, but the Chinese government needs to respond more effectively to these questions if it is to be trusted with serious public health matters. In a fully globalized world, there is no such thing as a local problem with a contagious disease.
The Congressional Research Service argued last year that “U.S. income distribution appears to be among the most unequal of all major industrialized countries and the United States appears to be among the nations experiencing the greatest increases in measures of income.” The inequality undermines any real progress toward an economic recovery since demand is very slow to pick up–businesses are therefore reluctant to make capital investments to increase production. Inequality also undermines the legitimacy of the political and economic system if people perceive the economic game to be rigged in favor of the wealthy. Addressing income inequality is perhaps te most urgent issue facing the US today.
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