One of the issues raised by the prospect of climate change is the melting of the polar ice cap. Here’s a great video that gives a good sense of the rate at which Arctic sea ice is melting.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe continues his nationalist line in Japan with the first-ever celebration of the “Return of Sovereignty” day. The celebration commemorates the end of the American occupation after World War II, and it has never been recognized in Japan before. Needless to say, the countries that were victims of Japan’s aggression during the war are hardly comforted by this display of nationalism, and the tensions in East Asia continue to rise.
Professor Stephen Walt has a great essay on the significance of whether Assad has used chemical weapons in Syria. He asks some very pointed questions about the significance of those weapons and whether they deserve the special attention they have received. These questions need to be answered before the US decides to intervene in the Syrian civil war.
The signs that the emphasis on “austerity” in Europe is waning is unmistakable. The Italian election, the Cyprus crisis, and the questions concerning the Rogoff-Reinhart hypothesis have all undermined the focus on budget cutting. In fact, European Union officials don’t use the word austerity to describe their policies. The new catch-phrase is “differentiated, growth-friendly fiscal consolidation.” But the inclusion of the words “fiscal consolidation” should serve as a signal that there are some in the Union who still wish to see large budget cuts. Ending austerity is not the same as fostering stimulus. We’ll have to see if there is anyone in the Union who believes in Keynes.
The controversy over the use of chemical weapons–sarin gas–in Syria continues, with doubts arising from the validity of some of the evidence being reviewed by the US and Great Britain. Sarin gas is an incredibly toxic weapon, and has been used in the past, in Iraq and by a terrorist group in Japan.
The sea surface temperature off the North Atlantic coast is the highest recorded in 150 years. It is hard to draw any substantive conclusions from this reading, but it will have an effect on the spawning and migratory patterns of many marine species. This new evidence will need to be analyzed for a long period of time before we can really figure out what it means, but the temperatures bear monitoring.
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have responded to some of the criticisms they have received since three University of Massachusetts economists noted some errors and discrepancies in their research on the relationship between debt and economic growth. The response in in the form of an op-ed piece in the New York Times. As such, it is not a full-fledged defense of their work, but an effort to set the terms of the debate over their findings. It is an intelligent defense, but one that does not really respond to the overall thrust of the criticisms. But it is an effective opening statement. In other op-ed piece, Paul Krugman looks at the political reasons why austerity seems to be such a popular policy choice and offers some interesting observations about the role of ideology and interest.
Evidence is still accumulating that chemical weapons were used in Syria. The evidence is still far from conclusive, nor is there any solid evidence as to who used those weapons. Nonetheless, given President Obama’s statement concerning the use of such weapons in Syria (he called it a red line), he now runs the risk of having his bluff called. However, we need to remember that action against chemical weapons does not necessarily equate with a humanitarian mission. There are a variety of ways that the US could honor its hegemonic responsibilities with respect to chemical weapons, while at the same time avoiding its hegemonic responsibilities to the Responsibility to Protect.
Protests in Spain are increasing in frequency as unemployment rises. French unemployment continues to rise to very high levels, closing in on previous records. Now that the emphasis on austerity programs is easing up, it may be the time for these governments to initiate stimulus programs. But this summer is likely to be a difficult one for European society,
Unemployment in Spain has passed 6 million, or roughly 27% of the working population. Under 24 years old, the rate is close to 57% These numbers will not decline for at least a year, as Spain continues to implement austerity measures. These numbers far surpass the worst levels of the Great Depression.
We worry about the influence of money on American politics, as a large number of people in Congress are millionaires. But the problem is far worse in China. Here’s a graph of the wealth represented in the National’s People’s Congress. Mao must be turning over in his grave.
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Earlier this month I posted a quick blurb on the finding of a new influenza virus in China (H7N9) and suggested that I would keep an eye on it. Many others have also kept an eye on the virus, and a note of concern is creeping into the discussions. The flu has spread in ways that don’t involve chicken to human transmission, but we don’t know how. That strange anomaly is disquieting. Once again, I don’t think this is yet an item for great concern, but perhaps we should keep both eyes on it now.
European Commission President Barroso’s recent comment that austerity programs had reached their “political limits” caused quite a stir. The Germans, in particular were dismayed by his defection from the cause (along with, apparently, Christine LeGarde of the IMF). Here’s the German take from Der Spiegel.
Both Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International leveled a broadside against Russian President Putin, calling his regime the worst on the issue of human rights since the Soviet period. The charge is partially motivated by Putin’s crackdown on Non-Governmental Organizations in Russia, but there is little doubt that civil liberties are being seriously compromised by the government. The key thing to watch is whether the small middle class in Russia begins to protest more vigorously against Putin’s heavy hand. Antoher sign to watch is the health of the economy which will determine the degree of latitude that the middle class gives Putin. I seriously doubt that Putin himself cares very little about the criticism.
The new Mexican President, Enrique Pena Nieto, scored a major victory early in his term by taking on the very powerful teacher’s union and introducing some very important reforms to a decrepit educational system. The union has now responded with violence and it appears as if political war has been joined in Mexico. It remains to be seen how long Pena Nieto can withstand these types of protests and strikes.
The European Commission President, José Manuel Barroso, indicated in a recent speech that Europe may be reaching the political limits of austerity programs. The combination of the Italian elections and the Cypriot crisis have suggested that the Troika may have to agree to move toward more stimulus and less belt-tightening. Indeed as the graph below suggests, the austerity programs have not succeeded in reducing the debt to GDP ratios in any countries with the single exception of Germany in the most recent year.
Israel is claiming that Syria used chemical weapons against rebel forces. If true, that action crosses a “red line” announced by President Obama, possibly signaling American intervention in the civil war. We need to be very careful about the claim and we should wait for multiple verification of the charge. I am personally very suspicious of every claim of “weapons of mass destruction” since the invasion of Iraq in March 2003. I am not at all certain, moreover, that it should be considered a cause for intervention since I am not clear as to how an intervention might affect the future use of those weapons and do not believe that there is any useful basis for armed intervention in a civil war.
A long quiescent border dispute has flared up again between India and China as Chinese troops have entered the Depsang valley in the Ladakh region of eastern Kashmir. India and China has frosty relations as they both compete for great power status, and the border disputes between the two countries remain a persistent irritant. We will have to see if the Chinese respond effectively to the Indian protest.
The Nigerian rebel group, Boko Haram (“Western Education is evil”), has been waging a long-standing guerrilla movement in northern Nigeria for several years. In its most recent attack,185 people were killed. The Nigerian government seems incapable of stopping the violence and there does not seem to be any basis for accommodation with the group. The continuing violence seems likely to split the country apart.
Government forces loyal to President Assad of Syria have waged a week-long offensive in mainly Sunni Muslim suburb of Damascus, Jdeidet al-Fadel. Estimates are that perhaps as many as 500 civilians have been killed in this offensive. The US has pledged to double its aid to the Syrian rebel opposition to almost $250 million, but will not include any weapons in that aid package.
Hampshire College Professor, Michael Klare, has a provocative essay on the coming global instabilities due to resource shortages. His prognosis is particularly grim, but difficult to refute directly.
The US has announced a $10 billion arms deal with three Middle Eastern countries: Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The details of the agreements are not clear, but it certainly appears as if Israel received the bulk of the weaponry, and most of it seems to be designed to enhance Israel’s ability to both attack Iran and to defend itself against an attack from Iran. The message to Iran is unmistakable, since all three countries regard Iran as a serious threat.
An interesting essay on an Englishman’s impressions of what life in France is like as the economic crisis continues to unfold. I suspect that France still has a long way to go before things start getting any better.
About half of all the prisoners in Guantanamo are now on a hunger strike. The challenge to American detention has received sparse attention in the American news media, but the non-American media has been watching the strike very carefully. This article is from The Russian Times.
There is an interesting debate about the legal rights of one of the accused Boston bombers. He has not been given his Miranda rights because Justice officials believe that there is an urgent need to gather intelligence and that an attorney present to defend the accused’s tights would compromise that need. Even more interesting is the demand of some Republicans that Dzhokhar Tsarnaev be treated as an enemy combatant. To label a domestic criminal in that manner without the slightest bit of evidence that the accused was an agent of a state means that the definition of “war” can be almost infinitely expandable to cover any act that “threatens” another state. We should be very careful before we enter that realm: the Constitution doesn’t really operate all that well in a time of war.
Change comes to the world in a variety of ways, but cultural change is without doubt the most important of all the sources of change. A new book, How the Beatles Rocked the Kremlin. chronicles how rock and roll chaanged and undermined the USSR. This review is from The Guardian, and I can’t wait to read the book this summer.
Barry Ritholz has reproduced some great economic graphs on the differences between rich and poor countries in their recoveries from the financial crisis on 2008-09. The conclusion? Poor countries are doing much better recovering from the crisis largely because they have not followed austerity policies. Perhaps there is a lesson to be learned.
Many people are talking about Chechnya in light of the news about the bombings in Boston, but apparently few know much about thus province in Russia. The Atlantic has a good background piece on Chechnya that may prove to be informative. Unfortunately, I do not think that knowing that the alleged bombers were from Chechnya adds very much to our understanding of the ways we should interpret the bombings. Criminals can be from anyplace in the world.
As many as one million Argentines protested the crumbling economy and the policies of the government. The political situation in Argentina has been deteriorating for a long time, but it appears as if the public has reached close to a breaking point. Argentina’s situation is not directly related to the economic conditions in Europe, but does reflect a growing global dissatisfaction with overall slow growth and income inequality. The growth of the far right in Greece is an example of how economic deterioration leads to political dissent.
Former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf was arrested on charges of terrorism on his return to the country. Musharraf entered Pakistan after a period of exile after he was ousted from the Presidency several years ago. Ostensibly, he returned to run for office again, but he was not considered a viable candidate. We’ll have to see how the trial proceeds.
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