The leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, Abdullah Ocalan, has called for a cease-fire with Turkey. The conflict between the Kurds and the TUrks has been going on for a very long time, but the modern phase of the conflict has lasted almost thirty years and claimed more than 40,000 lives. This step is an important one for Turkey as it struggles to claim regional hegemony in the Middle East. Much of the movement within the Kurdish population stems from the realignment of power between Iraq and its Kurds and Syria and its Kurds. Whether these changes can finally reach some stable equilibrium satisfactory to the Kurdish people remains to be seen, but this step is important.
A new party, highly critical of German membership in the European Union, has been steadily gaining power over recent months. The party, the Alternative for Germany Party, directly challenges Angela Merkel’s commitment to the EU, and its ascent has raised questions about how flexible Chancellor Merkel can be on the Cyprus issue (as well as the other bailouts in the eurozone). The Alternative for Germany Party mirrors the United Kingdom Independence party in England, which has a similar skepticism about the EU and which has also risen substantially in the polls recently. These stresses on the Union are making coherent policy-making in the economic crisis very difficult.
Tonight is the deadline for some sort of agreement on the banking crisis in Cyprus. There are rumors swirling through the blogosphere, none of which can be verified. We should know a little more in the morning, but I suspect that whatever agreements are reached will also be subject to considerable pressures that will inevitably make them tentative. What is certain is that the people of Cyprus are getting a very bad deal.
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