The World Bank has issued a report on the state of the Palestinian economy in the Occupied Territories and the conclusion of the report is that the economy is in very bad shape and that the policies of the Israeli occupation are making it virtually impossible for the economy to grow. The report argues that the occupation economic policies must be changed if the Palestinians are ever expected to enjoy self-sustaining economic growth. The report is highly unlikely to have any effect on Israeli policy at all. The report also coincides with President Obama’s visit to Israel and the growing skepticism that there is any hope for a lasting peace in the region.
One of the reasons why relations among neighbors in East Asia are often so hostile is that the citizens of each country very rarely know much about the history of conflict in the region. A specific case is Japan, and the BBC has a fascinating story about how Japanese school children learn the history of Japan’s actions in the region in the first half of the 20th century. Controlling history often is the best way to control the present.
The United Nations Commission on the Status of Women is struggling to finish off a declaration on the status of women globally which includes references to reproductive rights, LGBT rights, and sexual health. A consensus appears to be impossible on the document and Iran, Russia, and the Vatican are raising serious objections to the draft. It clearly is impossible to assert that the idea of women’s rights has achieved universal acceptance as of now.
The Asia Times ran a brilliant essay by Pepe Escobar on the situation in Europe. The essay is sharp, insightful, and very funny. It is a view from a rising power about the decline of a formerly dominant power, and, as such, should be taken with a grain of salt.
Indeed, one can zero-in on Italy as the canary in the coalmine for Europe. The recent elections settled nothing and new elections will more than likely be called soon. But the protest vote for Beppe Grillo and his 5 Star Movement is finally being taken more seriously as an index of very troubling discontent. There is clearly a deep level of withdrawal in the vote, and it suggests that the Italian people may be close to entertaining some more dramatic moves than those demanded by the Eu and the IMF. We’ll have to watch how the political sentiment shifts over the next few weeks.
As we pass the 10-year anniversary of the American invasion of Iraq, there have been several interesting essays on the war. Joseph Nye of Harvard gives his assessment of the war: far more critical of the war than most would have expected from a former member of the Defense Department.
As the world struggles to find alternatives to hydrocarbon fuels, many countries find themselves increasing their use of the traditional fuels in order to stimulate economic growth. The use of coal, for example, continues to soar in both China and India. The consequences of their consumption is compromising their ability to enhance the quality of life of their citizens. The shortage of electricity, however, in certain parts of India is crippling the economic growth of the country.
Afghan President Karzai leveled some astonishing charges against the US military while US Secretary of Defense Hagel visited the country. Karzai accused the US of colluding with the Taliban so that US forces could stay in Afghanistan. He also accused US troops of harassing university students. While it is always very important to take every charge seriously, it is hard to imagine that Hagel was trying to figure out ways to keep US troops in Afghanistan. It seems very clear that the goodwill trip did not go as planned.
Sectarian violence broke out in Pakistan after several Christian residences were torched after an accusation of blasphemy. The Christian community in Pakistan has long felt under pressure, and the growing intolerance against all Pakistanis who are not Sunni is a worrying trend.
The candidate who won the largest number of votes in the recent Italian election was Beppe Grillo, a comedian turned politican, who launched a political party called the Five Star Movement. He is clearly a showman and wants to shake up Italian politics. But he is also someone who asks some very serious questions. Here’s an example of his analysis of the economic situation in Europe.
A new study published in Science suggests that the world has gone past the point of no return on climate change. The study suggests that the rate of temperature change today is 50 times faster than it has been been during the entire span of human civilization. Such a rate would increase the temperature of the planet by 7-11 degrees F by the end of the century, a level to which most of humanity would find difficult to adapt.
Uhuru Kenyatta was declared the victor in Kenya, winning just a bit more than the 50% required. His rival, Raila Odinga, will contest the election, citing many anomalies in the balloting. The stage is thus set for another replay of the violence in 2007 after a similar contested election. Kenyatta is facing charges of crimes against humanity by the International Cirminal COurt which will make diplomatic relations with the new government somewhat delicate and difficult.
Incoming Chinese president Xi Jinping’s first foreign trip will be to Africa, signaling the importance China attaches to that region. China has developed strong economic ties with several African countries with raw materials and agricultural trade. China has also purchased large tracts of African land to use to grow food. Many are concerned that the Chinese role in African economies is not fully in African development interests.
China apparently holds the dubious distinction of having the Parliament with the richest members in the world. There are 83 billionaires in the National People’s Congress. By contrast, there are no billionaires in the US Congress. I wonder how discussions concerning income inequality will be conducted in that forum.
The past year saw the the second-greatest annual rise in CO2 emissions ever recorded. It is growing increasingly unlikely that we will be able to prevent an increase of greenhouse gases that will alter substantially the slimate of the earth. The rise is not a surprise but it is disheartening given the attention to the problem: one would hope for a different outcome.
North Korea has responded quite negatively to the sanctions imposed on the regime after its third nuclear test. The sanctions are quite severe, but unlikely to change North Korean behavior. In response, the North Koreans said that it would scrap the armistice with South Korea and was prepared to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike against the United States. The rhetoric was unusually strong, but probably does not signal any clear intention by North Korea to actually initiate armed conflict. As always, we will have to see how the Chinese react to this rhetoric.
Professor Stephen Walt, one of the most perceptive analysts of world politics alive today, has written a very good short essay on the 10 year anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq. His analysis is firmly rooted in a realist framework, and is testimony to the continued relevance of that framework to contemporary politics.
James Fallows has posted some environmental readings from China, pointing out how dangerous the pollution levels in China actually are. One should view these data from a global perspective: the problems that the Chinese people face from environmental degradation will be faced eventually by everyone in the world–the pollution will not remain in China. It is in everyone’s interest to help China reduce its pollution.
The President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, has died. During his three terms as President (although, technically he was never inaugurated after his last electoral victory), he was an outspoken opponent of the United States and its role in world affairs. He had the support of a large part of the Venezuelan population due to his very deliberate attempts to redistribute the country’s oil wealth to poorer sectors. But he was vilified by those who felt that his economic policies were undermining the productivity of the economy and that his politics were distinctly non-democratic. His legacy will be debated for a very long time. Here is a You Tube video of Chavez’s speech to the United Nations in 2006 when he attacked President George W. Bush, calling him, “the devil.”
North Korea has threatened to end the cease-fire with South Korea signed at the end of the Korean War in 1953 (the two sides have never signed a peace treaty officially ending the war). The threat was made in response to a new round of sanctions against the North Korean nuclear program and the scheduled military exercises between South Korea and the United States. The key player in this most recent round of threats and counterthreats is China which has officially signaled that it is willing to entertain a new round of sanctions. Nonetheless, we don’t have a good sense of how far the Chinese are willing to push their ally.
A number of questions have been raised about the recent Presidential election in Kenya and those questions are leading many to question the overall legitimacy of the election. Such doubts could inspire some sectors of the Kenyan population to protest the presumed outcome of the election which at this time seems to favor the election of Uhuru Kenyatta. We will have to see if there are violent protests as a result.
For those of you who have a specific interest in strategic matters, the recent report of the US Defense Science Defense Board on the susceptibility of the US to cyber warfare is extraordinarily blunt. It raises the issue of “existential cyber attack,” a term I have not seen before. It basically refers to an attack that brings the US economy to a complete stop. Not recommended reading for those who wish a good night’s sleep.
Income inequality is a major consequence of globalization and one of the most aspects of the process. Here’s a great video that outlines the issue of income inequality in the US.
Voting was very heavy in Kenya, and the early returns give the lead to Uhuru Kenyatta. We won’t know the official results for a while, but there were pockets of violence during the election, but nothing like the violence of 2007. The heavy turnout was a very encouraging sign since that suggests that most voters were not deterred from voting because of fear. If these early reports prove to be accurate, then the election will be a stunning success for the people of Kenya.
One of the more disturbing paradoxes to emerge from the process of economic globalization over the last forty years is the rather dramatic increase in the profitability of most corporations and the declining share of income to workers. The Atlantic has published a number of graphs that demonstrate this paradox, and it seems clear that economic success is relying less and less on the activity of workers. How long this dichotomy can persist is anyone’s guess: at some point profits will depend on consumers, and if there are no workers, then there won’t be any consumers.
One of the dilemmas for Israel in its occupation of the West bank is how to balance its security concerns with its commitment to democratic values (in much the same way, the US faces similar conundrums with respect to its Patriot Act). Apparently, the Israeli bus lines are going to introduce “Palestinian only” buses from the West Bank into Israel in an attempt to separate Palestinians from Israeli settlers in the West Bank. One can imagine what would happen in the US if it tried to re-introduce segregated buses into its transportation network.
There have been more attacks against Pakistan’s Shia population: two bomb blasts in Karachi. The Pakistani government has made little progress in protecting the Shia population against attacks from the Sunni majority. The pace of these attacks seems to be accelerating.
Gavin Hewitt, the European Editor for the BBC, has written a piece about how the economic situation is affecting the European polity. His prognosis is that Europe has about two years before the austerity policies rip the Union apart. One should hope that the economies of Europe pick up sustainability soon, or most of Europe will blame the Germans for the demise of the Union.
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