Hundreds of thousands of Portuguese have protested the austerity programs being pursued in their country. Unemployment in the country is not as high as in Spain or Greece, but the economic slowdown has been quite dramatic. The mounting protests against austerity across Europe suggest that the policies will have to be modified at some point before the citizenry lose hope.
Since 2007-08, the international economic system has been roiled by all sorts of challenges, from protectionist pressures, to currency wars, to threats of sovereign debt default. Some are questioning whether it is time to redesign and restructure the Bretton Woods System that has governed the global economy since 1945. Such a change is probably necessary, but until China and the US reach some sort of an understanding on how to resolve their economic difference, an agreement on a new system is unlikely.
We’re watching Kenya as it prepares to vote for a new President on Monday. One of the candidates, Uhuru Kenyatta, has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for his part in fomenting the violence that plagued the last election in 2007. There are many election observers in the country, attempting to forestall a repeat of the violence. But violent protests may be difficult to avoid.
The unemployment rate in the 17 country eurozone went up to 11.9%, the highest level every recorded. The different levels in each country ranged from 5% in Austria to 27% in Greece. The strains on the euro because of this slowdown are quite high, although we have no idea what the breaking point of the populations might be.
Protests in Bangladesh have been going in recent days due to the death sentence handed down on vice president Delwar Hossain Sayedee, 73, who was convicted for war crimes committed during the 1971 independence war. He is the third person to be convicted on crimes related to the independence movement that led to the creation of Bangladesh after it separated from Pakistan. The situation is highly volatile and is likely to continue for some time.
The violence in eastern Congo is accelerating as the rebel factions turn on each other and civilians have no where to turn. Nearly 750,000 people have become refugees since January as the violence as spiraled out of control, and the innocents do not know whom to trust.
The recent unrest in the Occupied Territories has led many analysts to speculate about whether the Palestinians have reached a tipping point into a more organized protest against the occupation. There have been two previous uprisings (Intifadeh) which led to great violence within the Occupied Territories. Now, some are asking whether we are poised on the brink of a third Intifadeh. Much will depend on whether the Israelis can make some genuine concessions on the issue of the treatment of prisoners, but, under these circumstances, even small events can have catastrophic results.
We’re still digesting the results of the Italian election, and the more we find out, the worse it seems for the European economy (and, subsequently, the global economy). The Atlantic ran a good piece that summarizes what we think we know so far about how the politics of the election will play out: the quick conclusion is that greater instability will aggravate the nervousness about the stability of the euro.
The violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been sporadic of late as the various groups have tried to broker a cease-fire. But the rebel group M23 has been riven by internal dissent, and the violence has flared up again. The outside world seems completely impotent in the face of some of the most horrific violence in the world today.
The US is planning to announce that it will be sending food and medical supplies to the Syrian rebels. The aid, however, does not include military aid. The debate within the Obama Administration has apparently been fierce, and the Syrian rebels do not appear to be particularly moved by the offer. The US is clearly playing a very low profile game, trying to keep a voice in the final settlement, but not wishing to appear as if it had decisively altered the outcome.
In world politics we have a difficult time separating what “all states” do from what “some states” do. The problem is the same as trying to figure out if there is an essential “humanness” that is universal. Here is a fascinating essay on the variety of ways to separate the particular from the universal.
One of the more interesting questions concerning Chinese economic growth is whether it can be sustained over an extended period of time. We usually think about the economic pressures of rapid growth as being the Achilles heel of Chinese development. But more and more people are suggesting that the real concern should be on how robust the legal system is and well it can protect the interests of the emerging middle class.
Analysts are puzzling over the results of the Italian election. We really don’t know how to interpret the results except to acknowledge that Prime Minister Mario Monti’s policies were soundly repudiated. The Brookings Institution, a generally liberal think-tank, published an interesting essay condemning the election as an act of political irresponsibility. I strongly disagree. The Italian people essentially said that they do not wish to pay the price for the irresponsibility of their government and their banks. Perhaps austerity for those who benefited tremendously from this irresponsibility would be the correct course of action.
The world is prepping for another round of negotiations between Iran and the P5 + 1 countries (the 5 Permanent members of the UN Security Council–the US, the UK, France, Russia, and China–plus Germany). David Case and Daniel Defraia have written a great essay on what the issues are right now and how they have evolved.
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization has a network of 45 listening stations all over the world that are specifically designed to pick up any seismic activity that could signal a nuclear explosion. The purpose of this network is to give confidence to the world that no state could secretly test a nuclear weapon (and the evidence is fairly clear that the network would pick up any secret test). Interestingly, this network also detected the meteor that exploded over Russia last week. If you want to listen to an exploding meteor, check out this site.
Some 25,000 people attended the funeral of Arafat Jaradat, the Palestinian who died while being held in an Israeli jail. The show of solidarity was significant and led to protests near the city of Bethlehem in which Israeli troops used live ammunition to quell the unrest. Again, one can only expect the protests to grow in intensity.
The Italian election turned out to be massively indecisive, with the most likely result a hung Parliament and another election soon. Amazingly, the center-right coalition led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlsuconi seems to have garnered the largest plurality of votes–his four criminal convictions and his current indictment notwithstanding. The biggest loser was the current Prime Minister, Mario Monti, who is the darling of the European Union and the International monetary Fund. The results sent the world stock markets into a tizzy. We’ll see how this shakes out in the global economy over the next few weeks.
Kenya held its last Presidential debate, a week before the national elections. The last election in 2007 was marred by violence, and it is feared that a similar outbreak of violence may accompany the election scheduled for 4 March.
Unrest continues in Bulgaria, as citizens take to the streets to protest high prices and corruption. These protests have been going on for some time and they seem to be getting larger. The government has already fallen, so there is not immediate objective for the protesters. The unrest most likely signals an intolerable level of frustration.
South Korea inaugurated its new President, Park Geun-hye. Ms. Park is the daughter of a former leader of Korea (one remembered for his authoritarian rule), and generally speaking represents a fairly conservative point of view. Her most immediate problem (aside from the issue of North Korea’s objectives) is to figure out how to revive the South Korean economy. Her task is difficult as the winds from China and Japan tend to have a strong effect on South Korea’s economy.
The Palestinian Authority claims that Arafat Jaradat was killed by Israeli prison officials. An Israeli autopsy held that Jaradat died from cardiac arrest and showed no signs of trauma. The Palestinian autopsy, however, held that Jaradat had been tortured to death. How the autopsies could have come to such radically different conclusions is not explained. The anger within the Palestinian community is quite high, and one should expect the string of protests to continue and amplify.
A Palestinian prisoner has died while under Israeli custody. The prisoner, Arafat Jaradat, was not one of the Palestinians engaged in a hunger strike against Israeli detention, but his death nonetheless led to serious charges by the Palestinian Authority. Let’s hope that the media will pursue the story so that we can have a more solid understanding of what happened. Unfortunately, it is often difficult to find information about Israeli prisoners after they are detained.
The main opposition group in Syria, the National Coalition, has pulled out of diplomatic talks on the continuing violence in Syria. The pullout is a serious blow to diplomatic efforts to end the violence, but it represents a decision by the Coalition that the continued support by Russia of President Assad compromises the integrity of the process. The Russians have not responded to the decision, and we do not now know what the next steps might be. In the meantime, many innocents continue to die in Syria.
There were large protests in Spain against the austerity programs that have pushed the country into a deep depression. Unfortunately, the protests don’t address the central question of how to stimulate the Spanish economy, but they serve as a clear message to the IMF and the European Union that the austerity programs lack popular support. In the meantime, the world awaits the results of the Italian election tomorrow.
Greece has been enduring several plagues: the economic depression, wildfires, violent protests, and, now, floods. In 5 hours nearly 100mm of rain fell near Athens (the average for the month is 50mm). It is hard to imagine that the Greek people are not near a breaking point.
Malik Ishaq, the leader of the anti-Shia group in Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), has been detained by Pakistani police. The LeJ claimed responsibility for the horrific attack on Shia Pakistanis in Quetta last week. We do not know if Ishaq was involved in the attack, but it is encouraging that the police have taken action. Sectarian violence is threatening to rip Pakistan apart.
Protests against Israeli treatment of Palestinian prisoners have been steadily increasing over the last few days. Some of the prisoners have been engaged in a hunger strike, and the protests are aimed at improving the conditions for those prisoners. The UN and the European Union have lodged protests against the treatment, but the real danger is that some of the prisoners might die. If that were to happen, we could expect the protests to become larger and more violent.
A Palestinian film, “5 Broken Cameras”, is being considered for an Oscar in the Documentary category. The film documents the ongoing protest at a town called Bil’in where the Israelis are building a security barrier that essentially cuts the town off from its agricultural land. The protest is distinguished by its powerful commitment to non-violent action, but the protest has received little international attention. The US public radio station, NPR, did a piece on the film that is balanced and insightful.
There has been a terrible bombing in the Indian city of Hyderabad. We don’t yet have many details about the explosion, but it comes on the heels of the huge work stoppage in India. The economic and political situation in the world’s largest democracy seems to be deteriorating quickly.
There has been a vigorous debate over the use of drones in foreign policy, but we should also be aware of the use of drones domestically. Right now there are few rules governing the use of drones for surveillance (the Federal Aviation Agency is formulating rules), and the potential use of drones for warrantless searches is probably something that everyone should think about.
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