Much has been made of the right of self-defense in the current Gaza conflict. Self-defense is not an abstract concept, but it does require a context which has been sadly missing from most of the media presentations of the current fighting. The most relevant bit of information concerns the status of the people living in the Gaza: since 2009, they have been living under an Israeli Blockade and Closure Policy. Blockades are acts of war, so the people of the Gaza have been living in a state of war since that time. In short, they have had the right to invoke the right of self-defense since that time.
Today has been a particularly confusing day. The 72-hour cease fire broke down quickly in Gaza, and the American media has decided that Hamas “broke” the cease-fire, and US President Obama blamed Hamas as well. But the agreement was the strangest cease-fire in diplomatic history. Apparently, the cease-fire was a cease-fire “in-place”, meaning that all military forces were to remain where they were and were not to fire against their enemies. But the cease-fire gave Israel the right to conduct search operations for tunnels. The incident today where two Israeli soldiers were killed and another presumably kidnapped involved Israeli forces going to a house in Rafah to search for a tunnel entrance inside the house. According to the Israeli military (and we have no independent confirming source), Hamas soldiers emerged from a tunnel inside the house and one of the Hamas soldiers blew himself up, killing the two Israeli soldiers.
Assuming that these facts are accurate, then one can reasonably ask whether there was a cease-fire. Allowing one side to conduct active military operations is an odd circumstance within a cease-fire. And I am not certain how soldiers should behave when they surprise each other in the context of an active military operation. Imagine the confusion when a fully-armed soldier enters a house and encounters another fully-armed soldier. Can we expect both sides to remain passive because there is a cease-fire? Or will they react defensively to protect themselves and their colleagues?
The issue is important because Israel is using the breaking of the cease-fire as a reason to resume intense military actions in Gaza, and as testimony to the impossibility of being able to work with Hamas. I think that if the parties involved were really interested in peace, then the breakdown of the cease-fire would have been interpreted as singularly unfortunate, but not a reason to resume fighting.
The situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate, and there really is no possibility of a genuine cease-fire for at least a few days. Let’s hope that cooler minds will prevail.
But there is a reason for cheer. Today is Jerry Garcia’s birthday!!!
The Imam of the largest mosque in the Xinjiang Province of China was murdered by three assailants. Jume Tahir was a government-appointed Imam, and the suspicion is that the killers wanted to make a statement about Chinese domination of a province largely populated by Uighur Muslims who wish to protect their identity from the Han Chinese who rule in China. The unrest against Beijing rule is long-standing, but has flared up significantly in recent months.
Israel is coming under increasing criticism for what many see as the disproportionate use of force in the Gaza conflict. In particular, several UN sponsored schools have been bombed, leading to the deaths of many civilians. Israel defends its actions by pointing out that Hamas missiles have been found in UN schools that were empty. It is not clear how this argument justifies the bombing of schools that were occupied, particularly since the UN informs Israel which schools are being used for refugees. The Commissioner of UNRWA issued the following statement after the most recent bombing:
STATEMENT BY UNRWA COMMISSIONER-GENERAL PIERRE KRÄHENBÜHL
Jerusalem
Last night, children were killed as they slept next to their parents on the floor of a classroom in a UN designated shelter in Gaza. Children killed in their sleep; this is an affront to all of us, a source of universal shame. Today the world stands disgraced.
We have visited the site and gathered evidence. We have analysed fragments, examined craters and other damage. Our initial assessment is that it was Israeli artillery that hit our school, in which 3,300 people had sought refuge. We believe there were at least three impacts. It is too early to give a confirmed official death toll. But we know that there were multiple civilian deaths and injuries including of women and children and the UNRWA guard who was trying to protect the site. These are people who were instructed to leave their homes by the Israeli army.
The precise location of the Jabalia Elementary Girls School and the fact that it was housing thousands of internally displaced people was communicated to the Israeli army seventeen times, to ensure its protection; the last being at ten to nine last night, just hours before the fatal shelling.
I condemn in the strongest possible terms this serious violation of international law by Israeli forces.
This is the sixth time that one of our schools has been struck. Our staff, the very people leading the humanitarian response are being killed. Our shelters are overflowing. Tens of thousands may soon be stranded in the streets of Gaza, without food, water and shelter if attacks on these areas continue.
We have moved beyond the realm of humanitarian action alone. We are in the realm of accountability. I call on the international community to take deliberate international political action to put an immediate end to the continuing carnage.
A 72-hour truce has been declared by the UN. It is likely that the truce had been approved by both Israel and Hamas, but it remains to be seen if it will hold. The truce is a cease-fire in place, and it is unclear what that means for the people of Gaza. Israel has effectively destroyed a 1.8 kilometer perimeter around the Gaza Strip to provide a buffer zone to eliminate the threat of tunnels being dug into Israel. Unfortunately, that perimeter contains about 44% of the Strip.
The world has witnessed a steady retreat from the commitment to liberal values and institutions that formed the bedrock of the world order for the last five centuries (despite the challenges posed by fascism and communism in the 20th century). But the early 21st century has seen growing dissatisfaction with those institutions (market capitalism, representative democracy, and human rights) and experimentation with alternatives such as state capitalism (China) and the union of church and state (Iran). In Europe, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has explicitly called for a movement toward an “illiberal” state, the definition of which remains unclear. The move parallels the rise of right-wing movements throughout Europe.
Much has been made of the movement by the US to reduce its commitments abroad, raising the question of whether a functioning world order requires a hegemon to enforce the rules of interaction among states. Some authors are asking the question of whether the world should be looking for a new hegemon, and the implicit assumption of that question is that the US cannot and will not continue in that role. Given the disarray in the world order that we are currently witnessing, the question is taking on greater urgency.
Argentina went into a “technical” default today by missing key payments on its sovereign debt. The country is about $200 billion in debt, and was supposed to make an interest payment of $13 billion today on the total debt. However, Argentina has restructured some of its bonds with some holders willing to take 10 cents for every dollar of debt. A small group of hedge funds (Argentina calls them “vulture” funds) bought some of those reduced-value bonds and is insisting on getting full value back, and a US judge ruled that if the hedge fund holders are not paid, then none of the bondholders can be paid. The deadline for payment is midnight, 30 July, but an “official” default depends upon a ruling by a private agency known as The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA). If a default is declared, then the losses should be limited simply to those holders of Argentinian bonds. However, if bondholders of other sovereign debt become “spooked” by the default (fearing that other countries will default as well), then the crisis could be more widespread.
Just as there are anti-Jewish lunatics in the world, there are anti-Arab lunatics as well. In protest of a (much larger) left-wing pro-Palestinian demonstration, some right-wing Israelis held a counter-protest in which the deaths of Palestinian children was celebrated. The video of the counter-protest is below. As analysts, we all need to keep certain things in perspective. First, there are always irrational people involved in any political movement and it is crucial that their influence is not amplified by our sense of outrage–generally speaking, the fringe elements have limited power but they always get press attention. Second, anti-Arab sentiments are pervasive in many places in the world over many time periods, but no ethnic or religious hatred has the horrific legacy of anti-Jewish sentiment. For many reasons, we should be especially vigilant when anti-Jewish sentiment arises.
There is increasing evidence of a growing rift between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Today, Channel 1 in Israel published a transcript of an alleged telephone conversation between the two leaders. Both the US and Israel have condemned the leak and denied that the transcript is accurate. It is highly likely that the transcript does not fairly represent the total tenor of the conversation, but the published excerpt is highly credible given what we know about the publicly stated positions of the two states. The excerpt is as follows:
Barack Obama: I demand that Israel agrees to an immediate, unilateral ceasefire and halt all offensive activities, in particular airstrikes.
Benjamin Netanyahu: And what will Israel receive in exchange for a ceasefire?
BO: I believe that Hamas will cease its rocket fire — silence will be met with silence.
BN: Hamas broke all five previous ceasefires. It’s a terrorist organization dedicated to the destruction of Israel.
BO: I repeat and expect Israel to stop all its military activities unilaterally. The pictures of destruction in Gaza distance the world from Israel’s position.
BN: Kerry’s proposal was completely unrealistic and gives Hamas military and diplomatic advantages.
BO: Within a week of the end of Israel’s military activities, Qatar and Turkey will begin negotiations with Hamas based on the 2012 understandings, including Israel’s commitment to removing the siege and restrictions on Gaza.
BN: Qatar and Turkey are the biggest supporters of Hamas. It’s impossible to rely on them to be fair mediators.
BO: I trust Qatar and Turkey. Israel is not in the position that it can choose its mediators.
BN: I protest because Hamas can continue to launch rockets and use tunnels for terror attacks –
BO: (interrupting Netanyahu) The ball’s in Israel’s court, and it must end all its military activities.
The position of the US is quite consistent with the leaked Kerry proposal for a cease-fire that was referred to in an earlier blog post (27 July 2014). Even if President Obama is adopting a harder line with respect to Israel, there is no evidence that the US Congress is changing in any way its strong support for Israel. And the 22 July CNN poll, the evidence is that the American people also strongly support the state of Israel. I suspect, however, that Israel would not change its policy even if the US decided not to support it in the current conflict.
On 28 July 1914, the Austro-Hungarian Empire declared war on Serbia after Serbia refused to capitulate to all of the Austro-Hungarian demands following the assassination of the Archduke Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo. On this, the 100th year anniversary of the beginning of the war that signaled the beginning of the end of the modern period and European domination of the world, The Economist, re-published the article it published after the event indicating its opposition to the war. There was no automatic alliance between the UK, France and Russia on that date, and many in Great Britain were inclined to stay out the continental war. Nonetheless, British leadership on that date was lacking, and those voices were lost in the political firestorm that followed.
On a happier note, today is the 146th anniversary of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution. The Amendment was necessary to protect the civil rights of the African-American population, and it represents a major milestone in human history–a right whose enforcement had to wait for the Civil Rights Act of 1965–, codifying the right of all individuals to participate in their political governance. Constant vigilance, however, is necessary to make sure that the commitment to these rights is not eroded.
The recent spread of the Ebola Virus in West Africa has terrified health officials, and several care-givers have been infected and died as a result. Governments in the region have responded with quarantines which have proven difficult to enforce, and there is a deep suspicion among the population of health workers which limits the possibility for effective treatment. ABC News has posted a good primer on the disease and outlines the steps that have been taken so far. Further spread of the disease would completely overwhelm the health infrastructure of the countries in West Africa.
One of the truly troubling aspects of the Gaza conflict is the re-emergence of virulent anti-semitism in many of the pro-Gazan protests. There is absolutely no connection between Judaism and the current policies of the government of Israel in the Occupied Territories: the conflicts between indigenous peoples and dominant cultures (think Russia/Chechnya, China/Uighur, English/Scotch/Irish/Welsh, Tutsi/Hutu, Sunni/Shia are just a few examples) are ubiquitous in world politics. Religion is nothing more than a rationalization for what is always a political conflict over control and power.
Income inequality is one of the most economically and politically destabilizing trends in the world today. It is, however, difficult to appreciate fully what income inequality actually means–very few of us have any meaningful contact with the ultra-rich. One way to appreciate the divide between the typical person and the very rich is to think about what buying a house means to an average person: it is by far the most expensive purchase most people will make in the entire lives. Yet, for the very, very rich, buying a house may be a trivial act. Check out the people who could buy every single house in certain cities in the US:
James Baldwin was one of the great American novelists, and he wrote a short essay on politics between Israel and the Palestinians that originally appeared in the September 29, 1979, issue of The Nation. Baldwin ties together the struggle of African-Americans in the United States with the legacies of colonialism and slavery. In the essay he makes a clear and sharp link between civil rights and anti-semitism, but also distinguishes support for Jews from support for Israel. It is an elegant and insightful essay, well worth reading today.
John Oliver is a brilliant comedian, and many of you have likely already seen this video clip of his take on income inequality in the US. But if not, it is a must-see.
The Israeli newspaper, Ha’aretz, obtained a copy of the proposal made by US Secretary of State for a truce proposal that was unanimously rejected by the Israeli Cabinet. Apparently, the proposal was made with the active participation of Qatar and Turkey and only limited participation by Egypt and the Palestinian Authority. The proposal marks a very sharp move from previous US positions, but contains some very promising changes:
“According to the text, “the Palestinian factions” and the State of Israel would make three commitments:
a) Establish a humanitarian cease-fire, ending all hostilities in and from the Gaza Strip, beginning in 48 hours, and lasting for a period of seven days
b) Build on the Cairo cease-fire understandings of November 2012 [that were reached, through American and Egyptian mediation, following Operation Pillar of Defense]
c) Convene in Cairo, at the invitation of Egypt, within 48 hours to negotiate resolution of all issues necessary to achieve a sustainable cease-fire and enduring solution to the crisis in Gaza, including arrangements to secure the opening of crossings, allow the entry of goods and people and ensure the social and economic livelihood of the Palestinian people living in Gaza, transfer funds to Gaza for the payment of salaries for public employees, and address all security issues.”
It is easy to understand why Israel rejected the proposal, but it injects a more real assessment of the issues that need to be resolved for a peace to endure.
The Associated Press has published a very detailed accounting of the shoot-down of the Malaysian airliner. The evidence and interviews in the report seem to prove that the Russian separatists did indeed shoot down the plane, although they believed that it was a Ukrainian military transport. One of the fascinating aspects of the report was that the anti-aircraft missile was fired by “a rebel unit, about half of which was made up of men from far eastern Russia, many from the island of Sakhalin off Russia’s Pacific coast.” Sakhalin is 4,200 miles away from the Ukrainian border, which suggests some complicity on the part of the Russian government.
The outrage over the downing of the Malaysian airliner has grown more intense in Europe as the task of recovering the bodies from the crash has been dilatory and insensitive. But Europe depends heavily on oil and natural gas exports from Russia. So the question of whether to base a foreign policy on values or interests has been raised in stark relief. The overwhelming dependence of Europe on Russian exports can be seen from the map below.
As the Islamic State has consolidated its control over territories in Syria and Iraq, the nature of its rule is becoming more overt. The al-Khansaa Brigade is an all-women group that enforces a strict code of behavior over the women in the Islamic State. The contrast between a liberal conception of human rights and the conception espoused by the Islamic State is quite dramatic.
Following the details of the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict is very difficult–much is asserted and little evidence is verifiable. There is, however, a much broader context in which the conflict is occurring. The entire region is in turmoil: Libya is disintegrating, Syria has experienced some of the worst fighting of the civil war in recent days, and, hovering over all of these immediate crises, the Arab Spring remains tumultuous but unfulfilled. The countries that have traditionally acted as “brakes” on local conflicts in the Middle East (mostly for ill, but sometimes for good) are withdrawn and unreliable. We are witnessing the unraveling of the regional system that has governed the Middle East for over a century. It is virtually impossible to imagine what the outside world could possibly do to mitigate the turmoil–the impotence of power is palpable.
We tend to think that diplomacy is the stuff of striped pants and euphemistic words (Winston Churchill said it best: “Diplomacy is the art of telling people to go to hell in such a way that they ask for directions”) Sometimes, however, diplomacy degenerates into a childish exchange. Brazil criticized Israel for its “disproportionate” use of force in the Gaza Strip. Israel’s response was to refer to Brazil’s loss in the World Cup tournament: “This is not football. In football, when a game ends in a draw, you think it is proportional, but when it finishes 7-1 it’s disproportionate. Sorry to say, but not so in real life and under international law.” The Brazilians have yet to respond, but, admittedly, it’s hard to respond to such an irrelevant riposte.
Attempts to broker a cease-fire have thus far been unsuccessful as Israel rejected the proposal by US Secretary of State Kerry for a week-long truce, “as it stands”. Israel rejected the proposal because it believed that the truce would only give Hamas a breathing space in which it would re-arm. Hamas has rejected previous proposals because they did not include a lifting of the blockade of the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile the Palestinian Authority gave approval to a protest march in the West Bank–the first such permit in almost ten years–and the protest exploded in a “day of rage” that led to three Palestinian deaths near Jerusalem.
Russia is apparently upping the ante in Ukraine. NATO asserts that Russia has massed 15,000 troops along the Ukrainian border and is sending heavy military equipment to the separatists in the eastern part of the country. Most analysts had expected the tension in the region to ease at least temporarily as a result of the downing of the Malaysian airliner. Instead, Russia seems to be escalating tensions It is difficult to anticipate what the next moves might be.
A patient who was diagnosed with the Ebola virus was forcibly removed from the hospital by relatives. The patient is now moving around Sierra Leone’s capital of 1 million people. According to Reuters, there are dozens of people who have tested positive for the disease who are moving within the general population of the city of Freetown. The security breach is a nightmare for medical personnel as the mortality rate for untreated Ebola is about 90 percent. It is hard to believe that Sierra Leone’s medical infrastructure is capable of dealing with a general outbreak of the disease.
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