As the drumbeat for war grows louder in the West, the Islamic State continues to attract followers from all over the world. Information about the people who have flocked to support the Caliphate is sparse, but we are beginning to get some concrete data about them. The important aspect of this dimension of the IS appeal is that it reflects loyalty to a non-nation-state. Even though the foreign fighters have national passports (and from that fact lies one of the West’s apprehension), their loyalty is to a supranational idea. As such an appeal grows internationally, the support for a change in the international system also grows.
The civil unrest in Pakistan is growing in intensity. Protesters grabbed Pakistan Television’s English language station for a brief period of time, and then the Pakistani military criticized the government’s excessive use of force in restoring order. About 70,000 protesters have been roiling Islamabad since 15 August and it does not appear as if the government is making progress in settling things down. Some believe that the Pakistani military is involved in order to force a change in government.
In order to spur action against climate change, the World Meteorological Organization, in conjunction with global media agents, has created a weather report from the future (2050). I suspect that some of the forecasts are unlikely (122 degrees Fahrenheit in Bulgaria?), but the general thrust of the video is consistent with the projections made by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The Chinese cnetral government in Beijing has ruled that only persons nominated by it will be allowed to run in the Hong Kong elections of 2017. The decision was met by protests from dissidents who identify as “Occupy Central” who believe that civil nominations should be allowed to allow greater freedom of choice. The decision, however, was hailed by the Central government which claimed that “the step is a sharp contrast to the past 156 years when there was no democracy for Hong Kong people under British rule.”
Israel has expropriated almost 1000 acres (400 Hectares) of land in the West Bank to build more settlements. The Israeli government claims that the expropriation is in retaliation for the murder of three Israeli teenagers earlier in the year. It is a substantial expropriation and will undoubtedly complicate any possible negotiations for a negotiated peace between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Israel has moved almost 550,000 settlers into the West Bank and East Jerusalem in which 2.4 million Palestinians live.
Peter Beinart is an analyst worth reading. He has parsed President Obama’s foreign policy and come up with an explanation for his limited but aggressive engagement with the world. Beinart calls it a minimalist foreign policy, but it resonates strongly with a realist approach–Obama only intervenes when he is convinced that American lives are at stake. That approach contrasts sharply with the more open-ended approach suggested by both George W. Bush and Hillary Clinton.
In a follow-up to the last post, Anne Applebaum of The Washington Post, has an op-ed entitled “War in Europe is not a Hysterical Idea.” Needless to say, the essay is grim and one that will likely not resonate with most American readers. But, having perused several European newspapers today, I will confess that European assessments are quite different from what most Americans are reading. The situation is far more volatile than most suspect, and both Russia and Ukraine are both backing into a corner with no exits.
The United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD) grilled US officials on what the committee believed was persistent racial discrimination in the US. The Committee cited patterns in jobs, housing, education and the criminal justice system to raise questions about the US commitment to ending racial discrimination. There is no doubt that recent high profile events in the US, such as the killing of Trayvon Martin, Jordan Davis, and Michael Brown increased the urgency of the questioning.
The protests in Pakistan led by Imran Khan and anti-government cleric Tahirul Qadri have erupted violently as the protesters marched on the Prime Minister’s house. The protesters argue that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif won the 2013 election through massive fraud, an allegation not supported by the international observers present at the election. The political dispute is incredibly complicated, and involves allegations concerning the role of the media and the military in Pakistani politics. Initially, it did not appear as if the protests were gaining much traction, but the situation is now much more fluid.
The European Union has given Russia one week to scale back its operations in Ukraine or face further sanctions. The rhetoric over the conflict in Ukraine has become significantly more heated over the last week as evidence of direct Russian intervention has accumulated. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s statement after the EU announcement was particularly pointed:
“We are very close to the point of no return, the point of no return is full-scale war, which is already happening in the territories controlled by the separatists….Today we are talking about the fate of Ukraine, tomorrow it could be for all Europe.”
The language matches the language used by Russian President Putin when he spoke to a youth camp yesterday:
“Russia’s partners … should understand it’s best not to mess with us. Thank God, I think no one is thinking of unleashing a large-scale conflict with Russia. I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers.”
It is often difficult to sort out the rhetoric in a crisis situation, but we should all hope that both Presidents are engaging in political hyperbole.
The United Kalavrvta is an oil tanker that was carrying about $100 million worth of oil from the Kurdish region of Iraq. The Kurds have been trying to sell the oil from their territory, but the central government of Iraq claims that the oil belongs to Iraq and does not recognize an independent state of Kurdistan. Currently the Kurds receive about 17% of the value of the oil pumped from its territory. Apparently, the Kurds decided to keep all the revenues because the Kalavrvta has disappeared from the electronic tracking system used by the US Coast Guard. It is likely that the tanker will eventually reappear but without any oil. We’ll see how the Iraqi government decides to pursue the matter. If the Kurds can sell their own oil, it will be a huge step forward in their bid for their own state.
The Thomson Reuters Foundation conducted an interview with various regional experts on the question: “Is the Islamic State a Flash in the Pan?” The answers, some of which are inconsistent with each other, are quite thoughtful and revealing. Generally, however, the answers tend to emphasize the problems the Islamic State is going to have governing such a large swath of territory in both Syria and Iraq. The interview offers a good perspective on the power of IS which everyone should keep in mind as world leaders tend to focus on emphasizing the threat from the new organization.
Poland denied the right of the Russian Defense Minister’s airplane to fly through its airspace when Russia declared the flight as a military flight. When Russia changed the characterization of the flight to a “civilian” flight, Poland allowed the flight to proceed. Poland has been sharply critical of Russian actions in Ukraine, and the denial was an attempt to communicate to the Russians Poland’s displeasure. Needless to say, the Russians were angered by the move.
There is an incredible amount of confusion about whether Russia has in fact “invaded” Ukraine. We usually don’t have this type of problem in world politics–the infiltration of guerrilla forces are always difficult to identify, but regular troops are usually easily identifiable. The Washington Post has an article listing the evidence that we currently have about Russian troops in Ukraine. Unfortunately. none of the evidence is “definitive.” The Russians adamantly deny that there are Russian troops in Ukraine. I doubt, however, that this uncertainty will last much longer. In response to the map tweeted by the Canadians on “Russia/Not Russia”, the Russians published today a map which clearly identifies Crimea as part of Russia. For the Russians, but not for the rest of the world, the matter is closed.
The province of Kashmir has been disputed by India and Pakistan since both states achieved independence in 1947. Since that time, there have been occasional violent conflicts over the province, but since 2003 an uneasy truce has prevailed. In recent weeks, however, it appears as if the conflict is heating up once again. Both Pakistan and India have control over parts of the province, but they are divided by a “Line of Control” which serves as a de facto border. Given the recent election of the Hindu nationalist, Modi, to the office of Prime Minister of India, and the recent political volatility in Pakistan, it is difficult to anticipate whether this crisis might blow up into something significant.
Islamic State militants have seized United Nations’ Peacekeepers in the Golan Heights, adding a high degree of unpredictability to an already dangerous situation. Not only is the act an egregious violation of international law, it also directly involves Israel in the Occupied Territory that belonged to Syria prior to 1967. There is no question that Israel would feel highly threatened by the presence of the IS so close to its borders.
The human cost of the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa has been horrific. There is also a huge economic cost that will be borne by the people of the region. The African Development Bank estimates that the GDP of the region may fall by as much as 4% due to the dislocations and costs of the outbreak. Foreign investors are pulling their people out of the area and workers are refusing to go to work out of fear that the virus is spreading. And the international response to the crisis has been pathetic. There is no way these countries can afford to spend the money necessary to respond adequately to the crisis. The only group that has mounted an effective response is the non-governmental agency, Medecins Sans Frontiers.
Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Poroshenko met and discussed the possibility of a cease-fire in the eastern regions of Ukraine. If a cease-fire were to be announced, that outcome would be a victory for President Putin since the cease-fire would allow the Russian separatists to regroup and resupply. As it turns out, the meeting was nothing more than a ploy. While it was going on, Russian regular soldiers were crossing the border and fighting the Ukrainian Army. In short, the Russians have invaded Ukraine. Russia explained that those Russian soldiers that were captured by Ukrainian forces had simply gotten lost. In response, the Canadian delegation to NATO tweeted the map below to Russia. At least the Canadians have a sense of humor.
Argentina is desperately trying to avoid paying the hedge funds who are demanding full payment for bonds for which other bondholders have accepted partial payment. According to a New York Court, Argentina has been ordered not to pay anyone unless an agreement is first reached with the hedge funds. Argentina simply does not have the money to repay the full value of the bonds, so it is attempting to change the legal status of the bonds so that they will be governed by Argentinian law and not US law–in effect, trying to avoid the New York court order. The maneuvers have created a confidence crisis of foreign investors in Argentina, and the crisis has led to a rapid plunge in the value of the Argentine Peso. Economic turmoil is spreading throughout the country as a consequence and the country is facing a nation-wide strike.
Israel and the Palestinian Authority–including Hamas and the Islamic Jihad–have agreed to an indefinite cease-fire. The agreement ends 7 weeks of fighting and several broken truces. Israel and Egypt have agreed to open up several border crossings and to allow greater humanitarian supplies to enter Gaza. Other issues are to be picked up later on, allowing this cease fire to settle in before more contentious matters are negotiated. Several hard-line members of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s cabinet voiced serious opposition to the cease-fire, but it appears as if this one will be more effective than the previous attempts.
The leader of Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau, has announced the creation of an Islamic Caliphate in the Nigerian northeastern city of Gwoza. Boko Haram has been operating for years in Nigeria, and is responsible for many acts of violence in support of its desire to create an Islamic state in Nigeria’s north. In July Shekau had voiced support for the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, but there has been no reciprocal acknowledgement from the Middle Eastern Caliphate. The Nigerian military strongly disputes that Boko Haram is in control of the city, but the military has not been able to exercise authority in the region for quite some time.
A leaked report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) contains the following conclusion:
“Without additional mitigation, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts globally.”
The situation is indeed dire because the IPCC thinks that this conclusion is foregone, and that even major changes in greenhouse gas emissions right now will not avert a catastrophe by the end of this century. We will have to wait for the complete report to assess the validity of the conclusion.
The New York Times is reporting that Egypt and the United Arab Emirates secretly bombed jihadist sites in Libya. There is no secret that both countries fear the radical elements in the movement, but the attacks occurred without any warning to the prime ally of both countries–the US. The fact that these countries felt free to implement a rather dangerous foreign policy without US backing is testimony to the growing preception in the world that the US matters less in world affairs. We typically take examples from actions taken by countries opposed to the US to make this point (the implicit argument is a variation of the “Munich” analogy). But US allies have increasingly taken actions without consulting the US, or actions that tend to undermine American interests (Saudi Arabia and Israel are prime examples).
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is one of the most powerful lobbying group in American politics, but relatively little is known about how the Committee works. Connie Bruck has written an essay on AIPAC for the New Yorker magazine, and outlines many of its positions and lobbying techniques. The intersection between domestic and foreign policy is dramatically illustrated by the activities of AIPAC.
The French Economic Minister, Arnaud Montebourg, has resigned from the French government, citing his disapproval of President Hollande’s support for austerity policies. Prime Minister Manuel Valls is trying to construct a new cabinet to support the government, but Montebourg’s resignation reflects strong domestic opposition to French economic policy. French economic growth was a tepid 0.1% in the second quarter of 2014. The French have abandoned the deficit reduction goals set by the European Union, a move that will likely lead Spain and Italy to drop similar goals.
On Friday, Lithuania requested a meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the Russian humanitarian aid convoy into Ukraine. Lithuania, a member of the Council, was obviously concerned about what it regarded as Russian intrusion into the internal affairs of Ukraine, and was supported by the Western powers on the Council. The Russians countered by charging that Western powers were unconcerned about the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine (about 2,000 people have died as Kyiv has tried to regain the territory held by the separatists), adding that the West had created the crisis in the first place. The charges and counter-charges are indicative of the controversial nature of humanitarian missions. We should remember, however, that the Russians have vetoed 4 resolutions to send aid to Syria, even though 191,000 people have died in that civil war. Consistency is not a high priority for the great powers.
In addition to the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa which so far has affected 2,615 people (claiming 1,427 lives), the Democratic Republic of Congo has now identified two cases of the Ebola virus. Congo has had 7 outbreaks of Ebola since it was first identified in 1976 near the Ebola river. The outbreak has led to quarantine and travel bans, inflicting great economic damage to Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia. The outbreak is clearly not yet under control and not nearly enough aid is being sent to the region whose countries lack the resources and infrastructure to deal with it.
China has announced that it intends to develop its own computer operating system to compete with Western systems such as Windows and Apple and Google’s operating systems. The move is clearly designed to help China avoid dependence on Western systems which it suspects are Trojan horses for Western spies. Additionally, a homegrown operating system would be far cheaper and perhaps more intuitive for the huge Chinese market. We shall have to see how successful the project is: on the one hand, China will be able to avoid many of the mistakes made by Western manufacturers. On the other hand, operating systems are devilishly complex.
World Politics News 