Chrystia Freeland is a very perceptive analyst, and she has written an op-ed piece on Ukraine that merits a close analysis. As a cease-fire is announced, we are still uncertain of its terms and many doubt that it will last. But the 5 month-old conflict has been beset by confusion, misleading statements, and outright falsifications. In world politics, we should assume that most diplomatic statements should be only loosely interpreted and that the words are generally a cover-up for other activities. It is always best to pay closer attention to actions rather than the rhetoric.
At the close of the NATO summit in Wales, US President Obama announced the creation of a “core coalition” of ten countries who are prepared to fight the Islamic State, initially in Iraq. The countries in that coalition include the US, Britain, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, Turkey, Italy, Poland and Denmark, but only one of the ten (Turkey) is a Muslim country. The coalition is not prepared yet to fight the IS in Syria since that would be implicit support for the Assad regime which the coalition countries oppose. Additionally, the coalition did not announce any plans to work with Iran which also opposes the Islamic State. The traditional alliances in the Middle East are slowly changing very dramatically.
A few weeks ago, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff seemed assured of re-election. But when one of her opponents died in a plane crash, he was replaced by Marina Silva who is a noted environmental activist in Brazil. Since that time Silva has steadily climbed in the polls, largely on a platform of anti-corruption and transparency. Silva is hard to categorize: she is an activist who has emphasized the free market in an attempt to allay the fears of corporations in Brazil. The election will be held in October, and right now the race is very tight.
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