There is an incredible amount of confusion about whether Russia has in fact “invaded” Ukraine. We usually don’t have this type of problem in world politics–the infiltration of guerrilla forces are always difficult to identify, but regular troops are usually easily identifiable. The Washington Post has an article listing the evidence that we currently have about Russian troops in Ukraine. Unfortunately. none of the evidence is “definitive.” The Russians adamantly deny that there are Russian troops in Ukraine. I doubt, however, that this uncertainty will last much longer. In response to the map tweeted by the Canadians on “Russia/Not Russia”, the Russians published today a map which clearly identifies Crimea as part of Russia. For the Russians, but not for the rest of the world, the matter is closed.
The province of Kashmir has been disputed by India and Pakistan since both states achieved independence in 1947. Since that time, there have been occasional violent conflicts over the province, but since 2003 an uneasy truce has prevailed. In recent weeks, however, it appears as if the conflict is heating up once again. Both Pakistan and India have control over parts of the province, but they are divided by a “Line of Control” which serves as a de facto border. Given the recent election of the Hindu nationalist, Modi, to the office of Prime Minister of India, and the recent political volatility in Pakistan, it is difficult to anticipate whether this crisis might blow up into something significant.
Islamic State militants have seized United Nations’ Peacekeepers in the Golan Heights, adding a high degree of unpredictability to an already dangerous situation. Not only is the act an egregious violation of international law, it also directly involves Israel in the Occupied Territory that belonged to Syria prior to 1967. There is no question that Israel would feel highly threatened by the presence of the IS so close to its borders.
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