Pressure is growing on the US to expand its activities against the Islamic State into Syria. The IS has well-established bases in northern and eastern Syria, and as long as its bases there are untroubled, there is little chance that progress can be made in defusing the threat it poses to Iraq. President Obama’s problem is that US foreign policy in the region is contradictory: it supports the Iraqi government but opposes the Syrian government, both of which oppose the IS. Obama should be following the balance of power maxim, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” But it would be hard for Obama to ally the US with a Syrian government that has killed about 191,000 Syrians in the civil war.
Apparently, the truck convoy left Ukraine and returned to Russia. There was no confrontation with Ukrainian forces, and the response from the West remains unclear. RT, a media outlet that closely reflects Russian policy, gives the Russian side of the debate, raising some important issues about humanitarian intervention. Given that we have no accurate or independent information about the contents of the humanitarian convoy, it is hard to assess whether the Russian side is persuasive.
Fighting has resumed in the Gaza Strip, as the peace negotiations yielded nothing but additional animosity between Israel and the Palestinians. Indeed, tensions have actually heightened as the Palestinian Authority announced that Hamas had agreed to terms to pursue membership in the International Criminal Court. Israel does not believe that it can get a fair hearing at the ICC, and the political damage to US-Israeli relations from a negative ruling would be immense.
Economic conditions in Europe continue to be highly troubling. Virtually every country, including Germany, has seen slowing growth, even as the overall European economy has yet to recover from the Great Recession of 2008-09. Indeed, looking at the single index of economic growth, Europe’s growth rate is significantly worse than its recovery from the Great Depression of the 1930s. Many economists are beginning to worry that it will take at least a decade for Europe to recover fully from the current economic slowdown.
The Washington Post has an interesting article on how the rest of the world views the protests in Ferguson, Missouri. Appropriately, most outside observers emphasize the issue of race and its unresolved status in American society. Not surprisingly, few of the articles use the US protests as a mirror of their own societies which are also plagued by racism (the Russian criticism is particularly hypocritical). To my surprise, however, few of the articles focus on the economic issues underlying the problems in Ferguson, nor do they link the protests in Ferguson to other protests that are going on the world today. There are many threads that unite the Ferguson protests to the Arab Spring and the protests in Europe against austerity. But there is one big, incontrovertible difference between the US and the rest of the world:
About 130 Russian trucks carrying humanitarian assistance have entered Ukrainian territory. The trucks entered without Red Cross approval and the Obama Administration threatened Russia with additional sanctions. The move places the Ukrainian government with a difficult choice: it can do nothing and allow the Russians to fortify the separatists, or it can use force to evict the Russian trucks giving Russia a pretext for war. This chess match is moving toward some sort of end game.
A recent report based on US Census data indicates how seriously the average American family has been hurt by the slow recovery from the Great Recession of 2008-09. The report found that median incomes in the US have declined by 3.1%: “median household income was $53,891, down from $55,589 in inflation-adjusted dollars when the economic expansion began in June 2009.” The report also found that the sharpest drop-off in incomes has occurred in families with three or more children. So even though the stock market has experienced one of the sharpest rises in its history over the same period, it does not appear as if that wealth has trickled-down.
US Army general Martin Dempsey, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, gave a press briefing which described the threat posed by the Islamic State in apocalyptic terms. The US has launched more than 90 airstrikes against the Islamic State in Iraq in the past week, and Dempsey said that it could be “contained” for a while but not in perpetuity. The language matches the words used by President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry, and it seems clear that the US now regards the IS as an imminent strategic threat. We have heard such language before about al-Qaida after 11 September 2001. We should probably prepare ourselves for an increase in US anti-terrorist activity, both domestic and international.
Navi Pillay, the UN human rights chief, strongly criticized the UN Security Council for its failures in stopping conflicts in the world. At the end of her term, she identified the Council’s willingness to allow national interests to trump human rights concerns as the main cause of many of the conflicts that have taken so many lives in recent years. Most recently, Pillay was sharply critical of what she called war crimes committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip.
George Will, the noted and controversial conservative columnist, has published an op-ed piece in the Washington Post that confirms that Richard Nixon, as a Presidential candidate in 1968, committed treason. Documents from the Johnson Administration indicate that Nixon persuaded South Vietnam to not pursue the peace negotiations started by President Johnson in order to prevent the Democrats from winning the 1968 presidential election. If the peace negotiations had succeeded, the Vietnam War could have ended in 1968, and hundreds of thousand Vietnamese and tens of thousands Americans would not have been killed. Will quotes a wiretapped message from the South Vietnamese Embassy in Washington. Anna Chennault was Nixon’s representative to the South Vietnamese government:
On Nov. 2 at 8:34 p.m., a teleprinter at Johnson’s ranch delivered an FBI report on the embassy wiretap: Chennault had told South Vietnam’s ambassador “she had received a message from her boss (not further identified). . . . She said the message was that the ambassador is to ‘hold on, we are gonna win.’ ”
Nixon’s treachery is breathtaking. He was willing to sabotage peace in order to win the election.
Paul Krugman has written an op-piece for the New York Times which points out the high cost of modern war, and raises the question of why states would commence such an economically losing proposition. Krugman suffers from the typical analytic problem of a macroeconomist. It is true that an economy on the whole loses in modern war. But, on a microeconomic level certain entities–corporations and individuals–profit immensely from war. The real question is how these small entities have the ability to persuade a society to lose money on their behalf.
Chinese troops have entered about 25 kms into Indian territory in the Burtse area in Ladakh. Chinese troops did the same incursion in April 2013 which led to a tense stand-off between China and India. The actual dividing line between China and India is disputed, and the previous confrontation was resolved peacefully. But India has a new Prime Minister now, and Modi has made Hindu nationalism a key feature of his administration. We’ll have to see if Modi handles the matter differently than Singh.
This weekend marks the 974th anniversary of the death of King Duncan I of Scotland by Macbeth. Shakespeare took many liberties with the actual history, but the background to the death remains essentially correct. But Shakespeare portrays Duncan as elderly and wise, whereas he was quite young and not particularly distinguished. In fact, his nickname was An t-Ilgarach, “the Diseased” or “the Sick”. He led an army into Moray, Macbeth’s stronghold, in 1040, and he was killed in action at Bothnagowan by the men of Moray.
King Duncan I of Scotland
Macbeth
Egypt, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority are facing a midnight deadline for the peace negotiations. The report is that Egypt has presented an 11-point proposal to the two sides that includes “an opening of border crossings with Gaza, coordination with the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority to rebuild the territory and a commitment by militants to stop building tunnels to attack Israel”. Apparently there is not much optimism that the negotiations will be successfully concluded. But, as is the case with most negotiations, it is difficult to tell whether the sides are deliberately engaging in a game of brinksmanship in order to induce concessions.
35 refugees from Afghanistan were found trapped inside a cargo container in Great Britain. The refugees were clearly trying to escape from desperate conditions, and made arrangements with people who were more than willing to take their money without providing any security. Refugees are some of the most vulnerable people in the world, and there are few states that attempt to protect them from the hazards of flight. There are more than 50 million refugees in the world today, and about half of them are children.
Clemens Wergin is the Washington bureau chief for the German newspaper group Die Welt and he has written an op-ed piece for the New York Timeson American attitudes toward the US role in world affairs. He questions whether the US has the will to actively manage global affairs. He uses an interesting phrase to describe the US role after World War II–the leader of an “empire by consent.” He laments the possible loss of the elite consensus in the US about how to protect American interests defined in terms of the global interest.
Ukraine has destroyed a number of vehicles in the Russian aid convoy as they crossed into Ukrainian territory. The Ukrainian government claimed that a number of Russian military vehicles preceded the aid convoy and were destroyed by artillery fire. The aid has not entered Ukrainian territory because the International Red Cross has not yet finalized the terms by which it can enter Ukrainian territory and the terms of its distribution. The Russian Foreign Ministry denied that any Russian vehicles entered Ukrainian territory and dismissed the claims as fantasy.
There have been reports of escalating violence in the northwest province of Xinjiang in China. The largest ethnic group in the province, the Uighurs, are growing increasingly restless under the control of the Beijing central government which is dominated primarily by ethnic Han Chinese. The Uighurs believe (as do the Tibetans) that their cultural identity is being lost and that they are being exploited in an essentially colonialist relationship. The relationship falls into a classic dependency framework, and it is unlikely that the Beijing government will change its policies as long as it feels threatened by the non-Han identity of the Uighurs.
Israel has launched three military actions against the Gaza Strip in the last six years: Operation Cast Lead, Operation Pillar of Defense, and Operation Protective Edge. The New York Times has published a fascinating graphic that identifies certain patterns that were common to all three of these actions. The graphic casts light on the types of actions by the outside world that seemed to have good effects and negligible effects. The graphic is definitely worth close analysis.
The Times of Israel is reporting that US-Israel relations have been negatively affected by the recent Israeli actions in the Gaza. Upon learning that arms were transferred to Israel without the knowledge of the White House or State Department, the Obama Administration halted the transfer of additional weaponry to Israel, following the lead of Great Britain which has halted delivery of some weapons as well. The report states that the Obama Administration regards the Netanyahu government as “reckless” and “unreliable.” Israel still has very strong backing in Congress, so it is not clear how damaging this rupture might be.
The Russian humanitarian aid convoy has begun to follow a path that would suggest that the aid would be given directly to the rebel separatists instead of to the Kyiv government (the convot has moved south from Voronezh, and not west toward Kursk). The Russians claim that the humanitarian aid would be delivered under the auspices of the International Red Cross, but the Red Cross insists that it has not approved a mission to give aid to anyone except the Ukrainian government in Kyiv (the agreement was for the aid to be shipped to Kharkiv). If the aid goes to the separatists directly, then the act would be viewed as an attempt by Russia to prop up a rebel government by the West.
No one knows what the West would do if that were to happen. But the US is sending 600 soldiers from the 1st Cavalry Division to Poland and the Baltic states, as well as M-1 Abrams tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers.The deployment of the US soldiers is no accident, but one should remember that Kaliningrad, a non-contiguous part of Russia, is to the north of Poland and west of the Baltic States. The geopolitics of the deployment is both risky and provocative.
Israel and Hamas have agreed to an additional five-day truce. The agreement was almost scuttled by a last minute exchange of fire, but it is clear that both sides want a reprieve from the violence. We don’t know much about the negotiations, but reports suggest that there are some discussions about easing the Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip, one of the key demands of the Palestinians. Israel is reluctant to grant any concessions, fearing that they would be interpreted as a reward for violence. But it is obvious that some concessions have to be made, if there is to be any progress in the talks.
The US announcement that it was sending additional troops to Iraq and that there are already special forces troops on Mount Sinjar assessing ways to extract the besieged Yazidis has raised fears of “mission creep.” The term refers to a steadily growing commitment to military action caused by the escalation of military objectives caused by incremental commitments. The problem was first dramatically manifested in Vietnam, but the most recent example was the US commitment to Somali in 1992. Ultimately, mission creep leads to military commitments that were never explicitly decided upon.
Peter Beinart has written a very provocative essay for The Atlantic which makes the argument that American foreign policy debates are best understood as debates between elites and ordinary people rather than as debates between Republicans and Democrats. He argues that American elites are becoming increasingly hawkish while ordinary Americans are becoming more isolationist. Viewed in this light, the argument between Hillary Clinton and President Obama over the rise of Islamic militants is particularly intriguing.
Pakistani opposition leader, Imran Khan, is scheduled to lead a protest against the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on 14 August. The protest was called to highlight election irregularities in last year’s elections, and it has been banned by the government. There is fear that the protests could get out of hand, and many fear that Khan is a stalking horse for the Pakistani military that seeks to weaken the civilian government. Other elements of Pakistani society are also interested in joining the protests, so the event will be watched closely.
The US has sent 130 combat advisers to Iraq, adding to the 250 soldiers already there. Their role is to provide tactical assessments to the US as it attempts to aid the Kurdish forces fighting the Islamic State. The US was also strongly supportive of the change in government in Iraq, although Nouri al-Maliki has yet to concede. The deepening relationship between the US and Iraq is comprehensible in the short term given the threat of genocide to the Yazidi people, but the long-term consequences of this commitment are not clear. It is a risky game.
The second 3-day truce in Gaza will end tomorrow, and there does not seem to be any progress in the discussions taking place in Cairo between the Palestinians and Israel. It likely that both sides would prefer to extend the cease-fire, but their publics will likely demand more tangible signs of progress. There are rumors that the discussions are centering on the possibility of opening a port in Gaza, a concession that would be very difficult for Israel to make.
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