Every four years, 13 US Federal agencies are required to submit what is known as the National Climate Assessment. The previous three reports have indicated that climate change has occurred and that human activity is partially responsible for the change. Copies of the 4th report are currently being circulated and there were many scientists who were concerned that the US Environmental Protection Agency, which is currently under the direction of Scott Pruitt who has expressed doubts about climate change, would water down the report in line with the doubts expressed by many within the Trump Administration. Last March Pruitt made this statement to CNBC:
‘”I think that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do and there’s tremendous disagreement about the degree of impact, so no, I would not agree that it’s a primary contributor to the global warming that we see.”
“China will not allow the military standoff between China and India in Doklam to last for too long, and there may be a small-scale military operation to expel Indian troops within two weeks, Chinese experts said after six ministries and institutions made remarks on the incident within the past 24 hours.”
Setting a deadline is risky business in world politics. It makes it very difficult for both sides to back down.
Income inequality is perhaps the second-most important issue facing the world (after climate change), but it is only recently that it has become rigorously studied. The pioneering work of Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics), Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley and NBER), and Gabriel Zucman (UC Berkeley and NBER) involved some incredibly detailed analyses of inequality in the US and the conclusions of those studies are uniformly grim. Since the 1980s, the vast majority of citizens in the US have seen their incomes stagnate and the bulk of income growth has gone to a remarkably small number of people. Their most recent paper, released in July, reinforces this conclusion. David Leonhardt has written an op-ed for the New York Times which summarizes the conclusions of the papers.
The distribution of economic growth in the United States
Gabrielle Rifkind of the Oxford Research Group has written one of the most intelligent analyses of the situation with North Korea and the best ways to resolve the crisis. The analysis should be required reading for all the leaders of the states on the UN Security Council. Additional sanctions without understanding North Korea’s motivations will only be counterproductive.
The United Nations Security Council unanimously passed UNSCR 2371, a resolution imposing additional sanctions on North Korea for its recent launching of two intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The new sanctions include:
Expand the existing sanctions on North Korea’s economy to include a full ban on the export of coal, iron, iron ore, seafood, lead and lead ore;
Expand the list of designated entities and individuals by adding four entities and nine individuals;
Expand sanctions on joint ventures and commercial cooperation with North Korea; and,
Prohibit countries from allowing additional North Korean laborers into their territories.
These sanctions will definitely hurt the economy of North Korea and it is notable that both Russia and China voted in favor of the sanctions. But the real stumbling block to resolving this issue is the insistence of the Trump Administration that North Korea agree to abandon its nuclear program. North Korea firmly believes that its program is the only thing preventing a US invasion and will never give up its nukes. The US needs to initiate concessions, such as halting its joint military exercises with South Korea if it sincerely wishes to begin negotiations.
Joint Security Area of the Demilitarized Zone Between North and South Korea
NBC NewsUS is considering airstrikes against is reporting that the Daesh (the Islamic State) in the Philippines. The strikes would most likely be carried out by drones, but if they occur, would constitute a serious commitment to the government of President Duterte, a leader who has been accused of 1,400 extra-judicial killings by various human rights organizations. The decision reflects the relative priorities of the US: security interests outweigh the issue of human rights.
Progress is one of the most important values in a liberal society. For some societies, stability and tradition are more important; for other societies, faith in an after-life is more important. But liberal society promises a better future for one’s children and that future is measured in material terms. It is a difficult value to measure, but some aspects of a better future seem to be pretty simple. For example, artificial light makes life significantly easier (although for some it has ruined humanity’s appreciation for the normal rhythms of natural light). Guido Mingels has written a short essay on how the costs of producing light have come down over the years:
“One hour of light (referred to as the quantity of light shed by a 100 watt bulb in one hour) cost 3200 times as much in 1800 in England than it does today, amounting to 130 euros back then (or a little more than 150 dollars). In 1900, it still cost 4 euros (close to 5 dollars). In the year 2000, we arrived at a cost of 4 euro cents (5 U.S. cents).”
Today marks the 72nd anniversary of the dropping of the atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima. The use of the atomic bomb marked the beginning of the end of traditional world politics, although few at the time realized its full significance. There are now nine nuclear states: the US, Russia, China, Great Britain, France, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. Fortunately, nuclear weapons have not been used in war since the end of World War II, but they remain a very active dynamic in world politics. Last month, 122 members of the United Nations passed a Treaty to ban nuclear weapons, but none of the nuclear armed states signed the Treaty. Intriguingly, Japan also refused to sign the Treaty.
“In Sunday’s video, a man who identified himself as Juan Carlos Caguaripano, a former National Guard captain, said: ‘We demand the immediate formation of a transition government.’ He was flanked by about a dozen men in military uniforms.
‘”This is not a coup d’etat,’ he said. ‘This is a civic and military action to re-establish constitutional order. But more than that, it is to save the country from total destruction.’
The uprising occurred after the newly elected constituent assembly, whose members were all hand-picked by the government of Nicolas Maduro, ousted Luisa Ortega, a prosecutor who has worked hard to control the government from breaking the law. There should be little doubt that Maduro will use the failed coup attempt to further crush opposition in the country.
European researchers have estimated that up to 152,000 people a year could die in Europe by the year 2100 if nothing is done to stop the process of climate change. The study assumes a rise in temperatures of 3°C by the end of the century, which is above the current targets of 2°C for the Paris Agreements, and also does not assume any steps to mitigate or adapt to the process of climate change. Thus, it is literally a “worst case” projection. However, it did not take into account the decision by the US to leave the Paris Agreement which may well render the Paris Agreement targets moot.
The situation in the South China Sea continues to evolve. Vietnam has recently stopped exploration of an oil and natural gas reservoir in the Sea, and there are suggestions that it did so because it believed that the US would not back up its claim. The strategic significance of the Sea rests on the value of world trade that passes through it. Virtually all the trade of East and Southeast Asia transits the sea, but China overwhelmingly depends on its ability to send and receive ocean-going vessels through key areas of the sea. Even if China were to control the entire South China Sea, it would still be dependent on access through some of these choke points (the Malacca, the Lombak, and the Sunda Straits) which are all controlled by other states. The Chinese are well aware of these vulnerabilities and they should be taken into account when assessing the threat posed by Chinese moves in the South China Sea.
“….68% say America’s openness to foreigners is a defining characteristic of the nation, while just 29% say ‘if America is too open to people from all over the world, we risk losing our identity as a nation.'”
There are differences among different age groups and different party affiliations, but those differences do not seem to account for the current discourse in American politics. The poll confirms an earlier poll taken by Pew last February on American attitudes toward ethnic and racial diversity.
The Pew Research Center has done a poll in 38 countries on which issues or nations represent the greatest security threats. Not surprisingly, the major concerns vary across different regions and different economic conditions. In many countries, the US is regarded as a greater security threat than some other countries. Generally speaking, countries with poorly performing economies tend to think that the condition of the global economy is a security threat. But the most striking finding is how many people in the world regard climate change a a major threat.
Researchers at the Finnish Meteorological Institute have made a graphic that illustrates global warming in the 20th century. The graphic clearly indicates that the phenomenon is truly global and not just a local phenomenon. The graphic also shows that the process of warming seems to be accelerating.
For those of us who regularly read and watch the news, The Economist has some dispiriting information. The news media apparently has little effect on how some citizens determine their political preferences. Indeed, among some constituencies, more would prefer shutting down or fining media outlets that broadcast stories that are “biased or inaccurate”. Freedom of the press is a cardinal value of a liberal society, but some of our colleagues do not regard that freedom as sacrosanct. And it does not appear that they are willing to entertain information that conflicts with their beliefs.
“The most frequently used indicator to compare recessions is GDP. According to the International Monetary Fund, Venezuela’s GDP in 2017 is 35% below 2013 levels, or 40% in per capita terms. That is a significantly sharper contraction than during the 1929-1933 Great Depression in the United States, when US GDP is estimated to have fallen 28%. It is slightly bigger than the decline in Russia (1990-1994), Cuba (1989-1993), and Albania (1989-1993), but smaller than that experienced by other former Soviet States at the time of transition, such as Georgia, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Ukraine, or war-torn countries such as Liberia (1993), Libya (2011), Rwanda (1994), Iran (1981), and, most recently, South Sudan.
“Put another way, Venezuela’s economic catastrophe dwarfs any in the history of the US, Western Europe, or the rest of Latin America.”
Poverty is so pervasive in the country that 74% of Venezuelans have involuntarily lost 19 pounds in weight, in-patient mortality in hospitals have increased ten-fold, and infant mortality in hospitals has increased 100-fold.
Cobalt is an indispensable mineral for many electronic devices and 60 percent of the world’s cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The miners who dig the cobalt from deep within the earth get paid very little for doing incredibly dangerous work. The Washington Post has an article on the conditions in the mines and it reports that the miners earn between $2 and $3 a day and that many of these miners are children. It is deeply disturbing that so much wealth is generated by cobalt and that such a small amount goes to the people who actually make it possible to use the mineral.
One of the more nettlesome issues in world politics is the discrepancy between nations and states. Nations self-identify–they are groups of people who believe that there is something distinctively different about their group that separates them from others. By this criterion, there are about 2,000 communities with populations greater than 100,000 which could qualify as nations. But there are only 194 states in the international system as determined by membership in the United Nations. Thus, the term “nation-state” is highly misleading. Even within nations there are disputes about what constitutes membership in the group. No where is this issue more interesting than in the case of the American nation: who belongs?
Democracy Now conducted a survey of voters in the 2016 election posing many questions to voters that touch on this question, and the survey yielded some fascinating results. There seems to be widespread and strong support for three criteria: 1) Respect for American political institutions and laws; 2) American citizenship; and 3) a willingness to accept diverse and religious backgrounds. But the third criterion breaks down among different groups within the two major political parties, and the difference between most American and voters who voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 primaries is dramatic. According to the study:
“Thus, substantial numbers of Americans, particularly among Republicans and Trump primary supporters, appeared to embrace a conception of citizenship predicated on birthplace and especially Christian faith. Both criteria polarized the parties more than any other, suggesting that the politics of immigration will remain fraught if the debate revolves around whether adherents of non-Christian religions—especially Muslims—can be truly American.”
“We have reaffirmed our position towards North Korea, that what we are doing, we do not seek a regime change; we do not seek the collapse of the regime; we do not seek an accelerated reunification of the peninsula; we do not seek an excuse to send our military north of the 38th parallel. And we’re trying to convey to the North Koreans we are not your enemy, we are not your threat, but you are presenting an unacceptable threat to us, and we have to respond. And we hope that at some point, they will begin to understand that and that we would like to sit and have a dialogue with them about the future that will give them the security they seek and the future economic prosperity for North Korea, but that will then promote economic prosperity throughout Northeast Asia.”
More than anything, North Korea is responding to what it perceives as an existential threat by the US. Until the US appreciates the North Korean perception, there is little hope for any progress. Indeed, until the US indicates that it understands the North Korean perception, then all US pressure on the country merely confirms its fears.
Climate change will affect everyone on the planet, but some areas of the world will be more seriously affected than others. One region of special concern is South Asia. New research indicates that some areas in the region may be uninhabitable if climate change occurs unchecked. The abstract to the research paper reads as follows:
“….a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C can be considered an upper limit on human survivability. On the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution climate change simulations, we project that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in South Asia are likely to approach and, in a few locations, exceed this critical threshold by the late 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions. The most intense hazard from extreme future heat waves is concentrated around densely populated agricultural regions of the Ganges and Indus river basins. Climate change, without mitigation, presents a serious and unique risk in South Asia, a region inhabited by about one-fifth of the global human population, due to an unprecedented combination of severe natural hazard and acute vulnerability.”
The wet-bulb temperature refers to the combination of heat and humidity.
US President Trump tweeted criticism of China for not acting forcefully enough on the North Korean nuclear program. His tweets were as follows:
“I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet…
4:29 PM – 29 Jul 2017
…they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk. We will no longer allow this to continue. China could easily solve this problem!”
4:35 PM – 29 Jul 2017
It is difficult to gain the active support of a potential ally to solve a mutual problem by public criticism. The Chinese have responded to these tweets in an article in Xinhua:
“But emotional venting cannot become a guiding policy for solving the nuclear issue on the peninsula.”
It appears that China is increasingly frustrated with President Trump. Zhang Wenzong has written an editorial for Global Times which is very critical of American foreign policy and has some sharp words for the apparent clumsiness of the US foreign policy team. The situation surrounding policy toward North Korea has become increasingly tense over the last two weeks and one should watch this situation very carefully.
The Washington Post has published an article that summarizes recent scientific research on the issue of climate change. The studies, generally speaking, paint a rather pessimistic view of the future and suggest that there is only a 5% chance that the planet can avoid a less than 2°C temperature increase by the end of this century.
Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index
Opposition leaders in Venezuela were forcibly removed from their homes the day after a sham election for a constituent assembly to rewrite the Venezuelan constitution. The only people allowed to run for the assembly were people selected by the government of President Maduro. The Venezuelan people have made clear what their sentiments are on the matter, but the government has increasingly used force to entrench its power further. It is difficult to expect more from the Venezuelan people in the face of the willingness of the government to use force to gain compliance–the outside world must step up and demand that the Venezuelan government protects its own democratic principles.
Today marks the centenary of the beginning of the battle of Passchendaele which begin on 31 July 1917 and ended on 10 November 1917. It was the third battle in what was known as the Ypres Salient. In those three battles, beginning in 1914, more than 800,000 soldiers on both sides lost their lives. Those battles are testimony to the absolute futility of the war and the foolish tactics employed by the generals who were completely oblivious to the realities of the first industrial war.
The Ruins of Passchendaele
Mitchell Blatt has written an op-ed on how to think about “illiberal” regimes. Some governments, such as Viktor Orban’s Hungary, Poland’s rule under the Law and Justice Party, and perhaps even Donald Trump’s America, have been moving in a direction which does not uphold the idea of individual rights as vigorously as liberal politics demand. Blatt writes that the key to thinking about liberal governments is the emphasis on constitutional rule that protects individual rights, not necessarily an emphasis on the idea of voting rights. It is an intriguing essay and provokes one to think more clearly about the nature of liberalism.
Khairuldeen Al Makhzoomi and Adel Albdeewy have written a very interesting essay on the Qatari crisis which I found truly enlightening They identify three major political axes in the Middle East, led by Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey. Each of these alliances in the region have different and often cross-cutting objectives and the controversy over Qatar has thrust these differences into the open. The perspective is a refreshing and more intelligent one than the one that emphasizes the role of US interests in the region. Indeed, the US turns out to be almost irrelevant, except as a genuinely destabilizing force, to the dynamics of this issue which could potentially explode into open conflict in the region.
Offshore banking is a tactic that is often used to avoid taxation. Many individuals and corporations use offshore banking by moving money to places with low taxation in a manner that their home countries cannot identify. The Apple corporation, for example, plays a tax of 0.005% on its profits in Europe. Given the nature of offshore banking, we do not really have good estimates of how much tax revenue is lost, but responsible estimates suggest that between $500 and $650 billion of tax revenues are lost annually by this technique. According to Oxfam:
“Over the last few decades, however, figures show that the tax contributions of large corporations are diminishing as governments compete in a race to the bottom on corporate taxation. Over the last thirty years, net profits posted by the world’s largest companies more than tripled in real terms, from $2 trillion in 1980 to $7.2 trillion by 2013”.
Needless to say, the costs of setting up an offshore account are prohibitively expensive for those with lesser means. Globalization works for some and against others.
The United States Effective Corporate Tax Rate (1947-2011)
At least 13 people died across Venezuela in protests against the election of the constituent assembly. With the opposition boycotting the election, there is little question that the constituent assembly will be approved. But Venezuela has been censured by many other countries for the actions of President Maduro. And the US, which has already levied sanctions on specific individuals in the Venezuelan government will probably add additional sanctions against Venezuela. It is hard to see how Maduro can emerge from this crisis even with a rewritten constitution.
On this day in 1966, “Wild Thing” by The Troggs reached #1 on the Billboard charts. It was their only real hit, but it has endured.
World Politics News 