The successes of the Kurdish militias in battles against Daesh (the Islamic State) is leading to a conclusion that will roil the Middle East. The Kurds have proven that they are able to hold and defend territory, that they have the passionate support of citizens who define themselves as Kurds, and that they are reliable battle allies. These are all the characteristics of a nation-state, a demand that the Kurds have been pursuing since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Once the battle against Daesh is over, the Kurds will undoubtedly press the world to recognize their nation-state, much to the dismay of the Turks, the Syrians, the Iraqis, and the Iranians.
In the case of a Russian-American confrontation, it is clear that President Putin enjoys far greater public confidence than does President Trump at this time. The Pew Research Center conducted a poll that indicates that, despite an economic slowdown, Putin is very popular at home.
“Half the growth in numbers of people will come from just nine countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the US, Uganda and Indonesia. By 2050 seven of the world’s 20 most populous nations will be African.”
US President Trump hosted Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko at the White House today. In the photo-op, Mr. Trump made a mistake that many make when referring to Ukraine: he referred to “the” Ukraine. Ukrainians have a problem with the declarative article. The Washington Post explains:
“Exactly why the declarative article came to be attached to Ukraine in the first place is hard to know, but the reasoning may lie in the country’s history. Between 1919 and 1991, Ukraine was officially known as the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in the English language; it may have been this Soviet period that resulted in the ‘the’ being added. A more likely alternative may lie in the etymology of the word ‘Ukraine,’ which is believed by many (but not all) scholars to come from the Old Slavic word “Ukraina,” thought to have meant something like ‘the borderland.’
“This explains why ‘the Ukraine’ annoys many Ukrainians. The mistake seems to imply that Ukraine can only be defined by its relation to its larger neighbor, Russia, and the years of domination it suffered under Moscow during the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire before that. Calling Ukraine ‘the Ukraine’ would seem to question its sovereignty: A fraught thing after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support for rebels in east Ukraine.”
Nature Climate Change has published a research paper on the likelihood that almost half of the world’s population will be subjected to lethal heat events for at least 20 days a year by the end of the century if climate change is not reversed. From the abstract to the paper:
“While I greatly appreciate the efforts of President Xi & China to help with North Korea, it has not worked out. At least I know China tried!”
It is very difficult to interpret tweets and President Trump is not careful with his language, so it is impossible to know how all these issues coincide. But at one point it seemed as if President Trump was expecting China to take the lead on preventing another North Korean nuclear test. The phrase “it has not worked out” may signal that President Trump will take action if there is a test.
“At approximately 4:30 p.m. Syria time, June 18, Pro-Syrian regime forces attacked the Syrian Democratic Forces-held town of Ja’Din, South of Tabqah, wounding a number of SDF fighters and driving the SDF from the town.
“Coalition aircraft conducted a show of force and stopped the initial pro-regime advance toward the SDF-controlled town.
“Following the Pro-Syrian forces attack, the Coalition contacted its Russian counterparts by telephone via an established ‘de-confliction line’ to de-escalate the situation and stop the firing.
“At 6:43 p.m., a Syrian regime SU-22 dropped bombs near SDF fighters south of Tabqah and, in accordance with rules of engagement and in collective self-defense of Coalition partnered forces, was immediately shot down by a U.S. F/A-18E Super Hornet.
“Ja’Din sits approximately two kilometers north of an established East-West SDF-Syrian Regime de-confliction area.”
The report does not say whether an American pilot was flying the F/A-18E Super Hornet but we should assume that it was not an American pilot. The “de-confliction” area (a very awkward word) refers to an area where the opposing forces (primarily the US and Russia) have agreed not to fire on each other. The Syrian Democratic Forces consist of:
“The Syrian Democratic Forces (Kurdish name: Hêzên Sûriya Demokratîk, arabic name: قوات سوريا الديمقراطية), usually shortened as SDF or QSD, are an alliance of Kurdish, Arab, Turkmen, Assyrian and Armenian militias mainly fighting against ISIS, Al-Nusra Front and other Jihadist groups in the Syrian Civil War. The goal of the group is to establish and protect the federal region ‘Rojava – Northern Syria’.”
The strike represents a significant escalation of the conflict. There appears to be an interest in some circles of the Trump Administration to increase the American role in the conflict. According to Foreign Policy:
“Ezra Cohen-Watnick, the senior director for intelligence on the National Security Council, and Derek Harvey, the NSC’s top Middle East advisor, want the United States to start going on the offensive in southern Syria, where, in recent weeks, the U.S. military has taken a handful of defensive actions against Iranian-backed forces fighting in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.”
In response, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation issued the following statement on its Facebook Page (you have no idea how hard it is for me to type that out–Bismarck is rolling over in his grave):
“Statement of the Russian defence ministry fact downing of thunder in a Syrian Village Al-Rasafe Su-22 aircraft Syrian Air Force:
“On 18 June 2017 G. American F-18 fighter from the international coalition missile-air plane ” SU-22 Syrian air force, as the support units of government troops, leading offensive against ISIS terrorists, in the town of al-rasafe (40 kilometers southwest of g. Raqqa).
“Striking a Syrian aircraft was destroyed. Syrian air force pilot ejected over the area controlled by ISIS, terrorists, his fate is unknown.
“Syrian air force aircraft destroying American Aviation in Syrian airspace, cynical violation of the sovereignty of the Syrian Arab Republic.
“Repeated Hostilities Aviation USA under the guise of “fighting terrorism” against the legitimate armed forces United Nations Member States, are a flagrant violation of international law and in fact – military aggression towards the Syrian Arab Republic.
“Moreover, the Syrian air space at a given time, the tasks of Russian aircraft of the code. However, coalition forces not utilized an existing channel of communication between air commands airbase el udeyd (Qatar) and hmeymim airbase to prevent incidents in Syrian air space.
“Consider this action U.S. military commanders as wilful failure to comply with its obligations under the memorandum of the prevention of incidents and ensure flight safety aviation during operations in Syria, dated 20 October 2015 G.
“The Ministry of defence of the Russian Federation from 19 June this year. Ceases to interaction with the American side in the framework of the memorandum on the prevention of incidents and ensure flight safety aviation during operations in Syria, and requires a thorough investigation into the American command with providing information about its results and the measures taken.”
“In areas of non-Combat-capable of Russian aircraft in the sky of Syria any aerial installations, including planes and unmanned international coalition found west of r. Euphrates will be taken in by Russian escort aircraft ground and air defence as air targets “.
To make matters more complicated, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Israel has been giving money and military assistance to Sunni rebels in Syria for the last four years. Israel has conducted air raids against forces in Syria to prevent the flow of arms to Hezbollah, an Iranian backed group in Syria opposed to the existence of the state of Israel. But this report may serve to legitimize some of the rebels fighting against Assad and will certainly feed the Iranian propaganda war against those opposed to Assad.
Finally, the Saudi Arabian Press Agency is reporting that the Saudi military foiled an attack by members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard on the Marjan offshore oil field, one of Saudi Arabia’s largest oil fields. According to the Saudis, three Iranians were captured in a vessel carrying explosives. If this report is true, then it represents a very serious escalation of the tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The US Senate passed, 98-2, new sanctions against Russia. The legislation amplifies current sanctions by imposing penalties on non-US companies that are involved in various investments in Russia, including those involved in building pipelines. The tough sanctions reflect a resolve by the Senate to penalize Russia for its interference in the US presidential elections in 2016 as well as Russian aggressive moves in Ukraine and eastern Europe. Germany and Austria complained bitterly about the legislation because it jeopardizes the building of a new natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, the Nord Stream 2. We expect that the Trump Administration will lobby hard in the US House of Representatives to change the legislation, an action which will likely aggravate those in the US who believe that the Trump Administration is too “soft” on Russia. Coincidentally, the controversy sheds light on the issue of the natural gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey since that natural gas will compete with Russian natural gas.
Nordstream Pipelines
Alex de Waal works for the World Peace Foundation and he has written an essay for The London Review of Books on the use of starvation as a weapon of war. He is concerned at the present time about starvation which is occurring in north-eastern Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen. In all these cases, millions are dying because food is deliberately being withheld in order to force concessions among warring factions in brutal civil wars. Unfortunately, this tactic is far more common than believed:
“The organisation I work for, the World Peace Foundation, has compiled a catalogue of every case of famine or forced mass starvation since 1870 that killed at least 100,000 people. There are 61 entries on the list, responsible for the deaths of at least 105 million people. About two thirds of the famine deaths in this period were in Asia, about 20 per cent in Europe and the USSR, just under 10 per cent in Africa. The biggest killers were famines that resulted from political decisions, among them the Gilded Age famines, the Great War famines in the Middle East, including the forced starvation of a million Armenians, the Russian Civil War famine, Stalin’s starvation of Ukraine from 1932 until 1934 (now known as the Holodomor), the Nazi ‘hunger plan’ for the Soviet Union, the famines during the Chinese Civil War, the starvation inflicted by the Japanese during the Second World War, and by Mao’s Great Leap Forward of 1958-62, the largest famine on record, which killed at least 25 million.”
Humanitarian organizations have a very difficult time addressing starvation under these circumstances and the issues raise important ethical and practical concerns.
Daniel Kurtz-Phelan has written a short piece on the new Cuba policy articulated by US President Trump for New York Magazine. He points out the narrow political concerns that underlie the policy reversal and how those concerns ignore the changes in Cuba that former President Obama’s openness precipitated. Most importantly, Kurtz-Phelan suggests that the reversal of policy leaves the US out in the cold as other nations rush to position themselves in anticipation of the retirement of Raul Castro in 2018.
Joseph Nye has been writing about international relations for many years and has a very sophisticated view of the international system, although one that is quite solicitous of American power. He has written an essay on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an ambitious infrastructure program that seeks to create a land-based trading route reminiscent of the old Silk Road. The initiative is not simply economic–it has powerful political implications as well. Nye believes, however, that Chinese political aspirations of achieving a level of dominance through the BRI will likely be less than hoped for.
There have been numerous studies documenting the growth of income and wealth inequality in the world. The conclusions from these studies are dramatic: both income and wealth are being increasingly concentrated in a smaller group of people. Yet these studies may underestimate the concentration of income and wealth because they rely on tax records. We know that a lot of money is hidden in tax havens such as the Cayman Islands or the British Virgin Islands, but estimating how much money is hidden is very difficult. A pioneering study by a group of researchers with access to information leaked from some of these tax havens came to this startling conclusion, summarized by The Guardian:
“So what are the consequences for inequality? At the very top of the pyramid, it is much greater than previously estimated. In Norway, where the available wealth data is particularly detailed, the super-wealthy appear to be 30% wealthier than previously thought, when all the wealth hidden in tax havens is taken into account. The share of wealth owned by the top 0.1% increases from 8% to 10%”.
More action must be taken to dismantle the laws that allow people to avoid taxation if we expect taxes to be paid fairly.
The Associated Press is reporting that the Trump Administration is planning to send 4,000 additional soldiers to Afghanistan. This deployment is the largest yet of the Trump Administration. At its peak in 2011, NATO forces were about 140,000 in 2011 but those levels were drawn down by President Obama to about 9,800 in 2015. The mission of the new troops remains unclear at this point, but it is hard to see how additional soldiers can accomplish what so many more failed to accomplish earlier.
US President Trump gave a speech in Miami declaring that, in his words, “I am canceling the previous administration’s completely one-sided deal”. He did not, however, revoke the decision to place a US Embassy in Cuba. He did restore the embargo on Cuba which will cause a certain degree of misery to the Cuban people but which did not, over its entire history since 1962 produced no changes in Cuban policy toward the US. Mr. Trump claims that this reversal in policy is due to the authoritarian aspects of the Cuban government. This exercise in futility stands in strong contrast to the US embrace of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East, Russia, and the Philippines.
Antarctica’s 2016 summer was apparently warmer than normal as ice melts on the West Antarctica ice shelf lasted longer than usual and covered areas as wide as the US state of Texas. We are slowly learning more about the South Pole and the effects of climate change on the weather there. The accumulating evidence suggests that we knew far less about Antarctica than we thought, and that climate change is already having a dramatic effect.
Click on the link for a video of a rare waterfall in Antarctica
There is, however, growing evidence that the world is taking climate change seriously. One of the most effective ways to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases is through carbon pricing–essentially taxing users for their damage to the environment. Carbon pricing is slowly becoming effective in a growing number of countries, as this graphic from Sightlines indicates:
Dominic Tierney has written an interesting essay for The Atlanticabout a topic that is almost always on the minds of students of international relations whenever a leader gets into trouble at home–whether a foray into foreign affairs can divert the attention of a dissatisfied populace. As Tierney recounts the history of such diversions:
“In the real world, many historians interpret the Crimean War of 1853-1856 as an effort by French Emperor Louis Napoleon to buttress his support among French Catholics by fighting the Orthodox Russians. Karl Marx wrote that the emperor ‘has no alternative left but revolution at home or war abroad.’ In 1857, President James Buchanan sent troops to reassert federal control over the Mormon regime in Utah, and in the words of one confidant, drown out ‘the pipings of Abolitionism’ with the ‘almost universal excitement of an Anti-Mormon Crusade.’ Shortly after the outbreak of the Russo-Japanese War in 1904, the Russian minister of the interior said: ‘We need a little, victorious war to stem [the tide of] revolution.'”
We worry about these possibilities because difficulties abroad stoke feelings of nationalism which can tamp down domestic differences. Fortunately, this pattern is not hard and fast and we can hope that US President Trump does not intend to use this gambit to divert attention away from his domestic problems.
Income inequality in the US has grown tremendously since the 1980s. The pattern is a dramatic break from the pattern established after the Great Depression in which incomes were spread more equitably. It is also a pattern that manifests the dismantling of the financial controls, such as the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act which prevented commercial banks from making speculative investments, that were imposed in order to prevent another Depression. The political consequences of such a skewed distribution of income are hard to predict, but there is little question that the legitimacy of political institutions in the US is being questioned by many.
About 1700 people were arrested in protests against corruption in Russia. Among those arrested was the leader of opposition to President Putin, Alexei Navalny. Navalny has stated his intention to stand for election in opposition to President Putin in the Russian elections scheduled for next March. The protests were held despite intense opposition from the authorities who refused to grant some permits and changed venues after permits had been granted. Participation in such protests is a dangerous activity in Russia and the willingness of so many to express their views is testimony to a deep commitment to good politics in Russia. If one were watching the state-owned media, one would hardly be aware that such protests ever occurred.
“This is the cost the Tsai administration needs to pay. Tsai has always refused to acknowledge the 1992 Consensus, leading to a great leap backward in cross-Straits ties. She should understand that the 1992 Consensus is an important political foundation to maintain stable cross-Straits relations. If she takes step to weaken this foundation, her administration will be bound to suffer the consequences.
“During Ma Ying-jeou’s eight-year rule, the number of countries that Taiwan had “diplomatic” ties with remained at 23 and Taiwan signed free trade agreements with two countries. Now Tsai has been in office for only a year or so, but three countries have severed ties with Taiwan. Tsai claimed she would win dignity for Taiwan from the international community, but Taiwan has ended up having less space on the world stage. The people of Taiwan have been taught a lesson as well.”
It remains to be seen whether all support for Taiwan begins to ebb because of this significant change.
For those who have a difficult time understanding the British exit from the European Union (Brexit), I strongly recommend this video from John Oliver. But not if one is easily offended.
Violent protests are entering a third month in Venezuela. The situation continues to deteriorate as President Maduro refuses to make any concessions to those who believe that he has destroyed Venezuela’s democratic institutions. 67 people have died in this most recent phase of protests, but, unlike the protests in 2014, it does not seem as if these protests will die down. Infant mortality and malaria rates are on the rise as basic medical care becomes increasingly inaccessible. Venezuela is in a state of complete collapse and it is hard to see how the situation can be stabilized.
Protests in Caracas on Saturday
A counter-terrorism court in Pakistan has condemned a man to death for the crime of blasphemy. Taimoor Raza, 30 years old and a Shia Muslim, had engaged in a sectarian debate on Facebook and was convicted of insulting the Prophet Mohammed by criticizing the Deobani sect, a Sunni Muslim sect. Raza had unknowingly engaged in the Facebook debate with a counter-terrorism agent of the Pakistani government. The application of blasphemy laws to social media represents a major expansion, and an expansion that seriously threatens to use those laws in ways that could be a weapon of personal vendetta.
The referendum in Puerto Rico yielded mixed results. 97% of those voting voted for statehood. That sounds like a resounding vote in favor of statehood, but only 23% of Puerto Ricans voted in the referendum. The ballot question was worded in a specific manner–it asked for an answer to the question as to how Puerto Rico should implement the “decolonization” of Puerto Rico. The wording of the ballot and the exceptionally low turnout (Puerto Rico usually averages 80% participation) suggests that the US Congress will feel no pressure to act upon the results.
World Politics News 