World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

Researchers have published an article in Science that estimates the costs of climate change on the US economy.  Such predictions are difficult and the researchers frame their predictions in terms of a wide range of probabilities.  The abstract, however, summarizes the research in straightforward terms:

“Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions.”

Not surprisingly, climate change will aggravate income and wealth inequality in the US as the poor will lack the ability to make the necessary adaptations to the changes in climate.

India introduced a single tax on the sale of goods and services to replace the almost 500 different taxes levied by the states.  The new Goods and Services Tax is the most sweeping tax reform in independent India’s history.  The change was accompanied by a great deal of confusion (not surprisingly) and it will take some time to assess its effectiveness and efficiency.  But it follows the process of demonetization that occurred earlier in Prime Minister Modi’s administration–he has introduced some major changes in the daily lives of Indians.

The party of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), suffered a major loss in local elections in Tokyo.  Abe has been in office for nearly five years but has been plagued recently by a corruption scandal.  The returns seem to indicate a pattern seen in earlier elections in the US and Europe:  the results are less a victory for the opposition than a repudiation of the mainstream parties.  Abe is undoubtedly weakened by these returns and he may not be able to secure enough votes to amend the Japanese constitution to allow Japan greater military presence abroad.  Amending the pacifist parts of the constitution has been a major priority for Abe.

Jonathan Cook has written a follow-up essay on the story by Seymour Hersh that there was no Syrian government chemical attack on the town of Khan Sheikhoun on April 4.  Cook notes that no media outlets in the US have picked up Hersh’s story and that the only responses have been a warning from the Trump Administration that the Syrians were ramping up another chemical attack and a re-release of the information provided by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.  It seems likely that Hersh’s story will die out without any refutation, and will be consigned to future historians to corroborate.  Such was the case of the infamous attacks in the Gulf of Tonkin in the Vietnam War.  US President Johnson claimed that the North Vietnamese had attacked US naval vessels and used the incident to justify a major expansion of the war.  It was only much later that doubts were raised about the authenticity of the narrative.

Saturday was the 20th anniversary of the British handover of Hong Kong to the Chinese central government.  China ceded Hong Kong in 1841 as a consequence of the British victory in the First Opium War (1839-1842).  It has not been an easy 20 years.  The handover involved a promise by the Chinese government to uphold certain personal freedoms not enjoyed by Chinese citizens on the mainland.  The agreement was described as “one country, two systems” but over the years the central government in Beijing has tried to exercise greater control over the city.  At times there has been sporadic resistance, notably in 2014 in what was called the “Umbrella Movement” as people in Hong Kong tried to preserve the right to choose their own candidates for the city council.  At the anniversary celebration in 2017, President Xi made it very clear that the Communist Party was in control.  The China Times, which represents the official view of the Chinese government, made it very clear to the world that it would brook no outside interference in Hong Kong affairs.

The British steamship, Nemesis, in the First Opium War

There are suggestions that US President Trump is thinking about imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum, using an old law justifying such tariffs on national security grounds.  The reports come just as President Trump is preparing to go to the G-20 meeting where issues concerning the global economy are going to be discussed.  The threat of tariffs would anger US trading partners, particularly China and its European allies, and may even trigger off retaliatory action which might lead to a trade war.  This issue should be watched carefully.

I have been following the news about the attack on the Khan Shaykhun area of Syria on 4 April  That attack was characterized as a chemical weapons attack by the US and it was used to justify an air attack on a Syrian government air field.  We reported on the article by Seymour Hersh in Die Welt which argued that there was, in fact, no chemical weapons attack.  The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons  (OPCW) released its report on the attack yesterday which asserts that Sarin gas was used by the Syrian government in the 4 April attack.  Scott Ritter, a former weapons inspector who denied that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction prior to the US invasion in March 2003, offers his own analysis supporting Hersh’s position.  The OPCW’s Executive Council will discuss the report on 5 July and Russia is on the Executive Council.  I will try to follow up on this meeting since the Russians have strongly disputed the report and find out the basis for their denial.

The US National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) has published satellite images of wildfires burning in Siberia.  Scientists estimate that these are the worst wildfires in about 10,000 years. Since November, temperatures in Siberia have been about 4°C above average.  These fires release a great deal of carbon into the atmosphere and destroy the ability of large swathes of forests to act as an effective carbon sink.

The Global Cities Institute at the University of Toronto has published a study of urbanization trends in the 21st century.  Given current trends, the Institute predicts that in the year 2100 the four largest cities in the world will be: 1) Lagos, Nigeria; 2) Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo; 3) Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; and 4) Mumbai, India.  The projections are a dramatic shift away from the historical patterns of urbanization and suggest that global dynamism will be located in Africa.

Researchers have published a paper in the science journal Nature that posits the year 2020 as a crucial year in the process of mitigating climate change.  The authors note that there have been much progress in reducing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2):

“Greenhouse-gas emissions are already decoupling from production and consumption. For the past three years, worldwide CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels have stayed flat, while the global economy and the gross domestic product (GDP) of major developed and developing nations have grown by at least 3.1% per year (see go.nature.com/2rthjje). This is only the fourth occasion in the past 40 years on which emission levels have stagnated or fallen. The previous three instances — in the early 1980s, 1992 and 2009 — were associated with global economic predicaments, but the current one is not.

“Emissions from the United States fell the most: by 3% last year, while its GDP grew by 1.6%. In China, CO₂ emissions fell by 1% in 2016, and its economy expanded by 6.7%.  Although it is too early to tell whether this plateau will presage a fall, the signs are encouraging.”

The authors outline a six-point program to ensure that the progress continues, although concerns over the policies of the US are significant.

It appears that  US President Trump no longer  believes that China can exert effective pressure on North Korea to stop its nuclear program.  It announced sanctions on a Chinese bank, a Chinese company, and two Chinese individuals for their ties to North Korea.  At the same time, the Administration announced a $1.4 billion arms sales package for Taiwan.  It is not clear how Chinese President Xi might respond to this pressure, but the open characterization of Chinese failure by President Trump on 20 June is certain to be viewed as disrespectful by China.  Trump’s actions may also signal a return to the tougher line toward China he articulated during the campaign.  But the biggest uncertainty is how close Mr. Trump may be to taking unilateral action against North Korea.

There has been a battle being waged for over a month in the city of Marawi in the Philippines between insurgents and government forces.  The insurgents identify with the Islamic State and claim to represent the interests of Muslims who have suffered from discrimination at the hands of the Christian majority in the southernmost island of the Philippines, Mindanao.  Islam is older than Christianity in the country, but Muslims are a minority who do not hold significant power.  The conflict between Muslims and Christians in the country is an old conflict that has never been satisfactorily addressed.

Chatham House, a think-tank in London, has published an interesting report entitled “Chokepoints and Vulnerabilities in Global Food Trade”.  It raises a concern that is not often considered–the vulnerability of the world food system to interruptions in food trade.  According to the report:

“Global food security is underpinned by trade in a few crops and fertilizers. Just three crops – maize, wheat and rice – account for around 60 per cent of global food energy intake.  A fourth crop, soybean, is the world’s largest source of animal protein feed, accounting for 65 per cent of global protein feed supply.  Each year, the world’s transport system moves enough maize, wheat, rice and soybean to feed approximately 2.8 billion people.  Meanwhile, the 180 million tonnes of fertilizers applied to farmland annually play a vital role in helping us grow enough wheat, rice and maize to sustain our expanding populations.”

The study identifies 14 places where the transport of items vital to food supply are vulnerable to breakdown.  The global food system is far more fragile than we had believed.

Paul Pillar is my favorite analyst of US policy toward the Middle East (we were friends in college).  He served on the Middle East desk of the CIA during the Iraq invasion, and subsequently left the Agency and wrote an essay on how the CIA’s analysis of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction was “cherry-picked” by the Bush Administration.  The essay was published in the March/April issue of Foreign Affairs.  He is now at Georgetown University and he has written another essay on how the Trump Administration is “cherry-picking” the evidence on Iran in order to justify a policy of regime change in that country.  Paul knows what he is talking about and his fears should be taken seriously.

Nick Turse has written an essay for The Nation which points out that the Trump Administration has maintained Special Operations forces into 137 countries (in many cases, some of these troops are hold-overs from the Bush and Obama Administration).  There are only 195 states in the international system so the US has troops in 70% of the world’s countries.  Most Americans are completely unaware of how extensive American military commitments are.  The commitments are clear evidence of imperial overstretch.

The Pew Research Center has released a new poll showing that foreign publics have lost confidence in the US.  The report on the poll states:

“Trump and many of his key policies are broadly unpopular around the globe, and ratings for the U.S. have declined steeply in many nations. According to a new Pew Research Center survey spanning 37 nations, a median of just 22% has confidence in Trump to do the right thing when it comes to international affairs. This stands in contrast to the final years of Barack Obama’s presidency, when a median of 64% expressed confidence in Trump’s predecessor to direct America’s role in the world.”

The fall in confidence is dramatic.  Interestingly, the only leader mentioned in the poll who received favorable ratings was German Chancellor Angela Merkel.  The poll also has some very interesting insights on the views in specific countries.  US President Trump was viewed favorably in only Russia and Israel.

Prosecutors in Brazil have charged the country’s President with corruption.  President Michel Temer came into office just last year after the previous President, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached on corruption charges as well.  Temer has substantial support in the Brazilian Congress, but he is deeply unpopular with approval ratings in the single digits.  He has been trying to introduce stringent neoliberal reforms to a deeply troubled economy with an unemployment rate of almost 14%.  The scandal will make governing Brazil even more difficult.

The US President has released the following statement:

“The United States has identified potential preparations for another chemical weapons attack by the Assad regime that would likely result in the mass murder of civilians, including innocent children.  The activities are similar to preparations the regime made before its April 4, 2017 chemical weapons attack.

“As we have previously stated, the United States is in Syria to eliminate the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.  If, however, Mr. Assad conducts another mass murder attack using chemical weapons, he and his military will pay a heavy price.”

The press is reporting that these preparations are taking place at the same air base it bombed in April.  Unfortunately, there has been no media coverage of the report this blog covered yesterday that the “chemical attack” actually occurred.  The report that Syria is considering another chemical attack makes no sense.  Why would Syria invite US retaliation and the opprobrium of the world?  All the evidence suggests that Syrian President Assad is winning the civil war–a chemical weapons attack at this point would undermine his gains.  On the other hand, the US might be preparing the world for a serious air attack.

On 6 April US President Trump authorized an air attack on a Syrian government air base in retaliation for what he claimed was the use of chemical weapons against Syrian civilians.  The attack was a dramatic shift in US policy.  Trump justified the attack with these words: “”There can be no dispute that Syria used banned chemical weapons, violated its obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention and ignored the urging of the UN Security Council. Years of previous attempts at changing Assad’s behavior have all failed and failed very dramatically.”  Welt, a German media outlet, has published an essay by Seymour Hersh which raises serious doubts about the accuracy of that claim.  Most importantly, Hersh provides evidence that the US intelligence services knew that chemical weapons had not been used but that President Trump made the decision to attack before that information was provided to him.  Welt also published a transcript of conversations between a security adviser and an active US American soldier on duty on a key operational base about the events in Khan Sheikhoun to corroborate the story.

In a world of nation-states, the idea that states have complete control over their borders is incontestable.  Generally speaking, those borders create a clear distinction between citizens and non-citizens, and the traditional assumption is that the primary obligation of states is to their citizens.  Thus, states have the power to either allow or bar refugees.  A larger question than the simple legal question, however, is whether there are moral obligations to allow entry to refugees who face discrimination, mortal danger, or extreme deprivation.  The world is currently facing the largest number of refugees in recorded history, and the moral imperatives to allow entry to such persons is being strained.  Joseph Carens, a professor of political theory at the University of Toronto, makes the argument in favor of refugees. 

Syrian refugees attempting entry into Turkey in 2015

A third study published this year indicates that ocean levels are rising faster than anticipated.  The rate of sea level increase in 1993 was 2.2 millimeters a year and in 2014 the rate of increase was 3.3 millimeters a year.  Most of the increase comes from thermal expansion of the seas due to higher water temperatures and melting of land-based glaciers in the North and South Poles and in other areas of the world.  Both causes are related to climate change, and the studies suggest that the rate of increase will increase in the future.

Over the last year women working in garment factories in Cambodia have suffered serious health concerns.  The factories supply sportswear to some of the world’s most popular brands, such as Nike, Puma, and Asics.  The working conditions in the factories are horrible.  According to The Guardian:

“The women who collapsed worked 10 hour days, six days a week and reported feeling exhausted and hungry. Excessive heat was also an issue in three factories, with temperatures of 37C (98°F). Unlike in neighbouring Vietnam, where factory temperatures must not exceed 32C, Cambodia sets no limit, though if temperatures reach a “very high level” causing difficulties for workers, employers must install fans or air conditioning.”

There are non-governmental campaigns to improve the working conditions in such factories, such as the group, Women in Informal Employment: Globalizing and Organizing (WIEGO).  They are having an effect, but progress is very slow.

Venezuela’s protests continue and the country is in total collapse.  Venezuelan citizens watched Venezuelan authorities shoot a protester on live TV as there seems to be no restraints on the government forces supporting the regime of President Maduro.  Protesters who have been arrested have been subjected to inhumane treatment and conditions.  The international community seems powerless to influence the course of events–there does not seem to be any way out of this impasse.

Fareed Zakaria has written an op-ed for the Washington Post which argues that US President Trump’s policies are leading the US “into another decade of war in the greater Middle East. And this next decade of conflict might prove to be even more destabilizing than the last one.”  The US has ramped up is military responses in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Afghanistan but there does not seem to be any underlying policy justifying these responses.  It seems to be just more of the same policies of the last 16 years which have only served to destabilize the region even further.

The conflict in Yemen has been going on for years as Saudi Arabia and Iran fight over control of the small country.  The Saudi Arabian attacks have been devastating and ruthless, and the consequences of the destruction of civil society is unfortunately predictable.  The people of Yemen are now confronting one of the largest outbreaks of cholera in recent years, with over 200,000 people infected and 5,000 more each day.  The outbreak is due to the breakdown of medical and sanitation facilities.  The victims of this outbreak should be regarded as victims of the war.  The recent elevation of Mohammed bin Salman to be the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia likely means that the Saudi attacks on Yemen will only become more savage.   The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a member of the Saudi coalition, has maintained control over the city of Aden in southern Yemen where the former President of Yemen, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, remains sequestered waiting for the Saudis to return him to power.  The Saudis believe that the Houthi rebels who overthrew Hadi are under control of its arch-rival in the Gulf region, Iran.  Several human rights groups accuse the UAE of running secret detention and torture cells in Aden.  The Saudis and its coalition partners are using weapons provided by the US to conduct the war in Yemen and US President Trump has recently sold the Saudis significantly more weapons, assuring that the war will not end soon.

China and the US have reached an agreement to structure security talks in the future, suggesting that the two sides will engage in regular discussions about matters of disagreement.  According to Global Times, a media outlet generally regarded as representing the voice of the Chine Communist Party:

“China and the United States reached an important consensus on the development of bilateral relations and security issues at a high-level dialogue held Wednesday in the US capital of Washington D.C..

“The First Round of China-US Diplomatic and Security Dialogue, which was described by both sides as “constructive” and “fruitful,” represents a major step in implementing the consensus reached by Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump during their meeting in Florida in April.

“Looking ahead, the two sides pledged to expand mutually-beneficial cooperation and manage differences on the basis of mutual respect, all in a bid to promote the steady development of China-US relations in the long term.”

One interesting feature of the agreement is that apparently the Chinese have finally agreed with the US that the objective of discussions with the North Koreans should be the “complete, verifiable and irreversible” denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.  It is extremely doubtful that the North Koreans will ever agree to that objective as long as American troops are stationed in South Korea.

It has been reported earlier that US President Trump has given greater authority to the US Secretary of Defense, General Mattis, to determine troop levels in Afghanistan and that Mattis has decided to send an additional 4,000 American troops at this time.  The ability of the US State Department to support the diplomatic aspects of a renewed military commitment to Afghanistan, however, has slowly declined.  There was a special office set up in the State Department, the Office of the Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, during the height of the American war effort in the country.  That office had about a hundred staff members, but it is now down to a handful of staffers and the Trump Administration is thinking about abolishing the office.  Decreasing the level of diplomatic expertise at the same time an increased military commitment is being contemplated is a foolish policy.

The Financial Times ran an article on the use of the British Virgin Islands (BVI) as a tax haven.  The FT has a strict paywall so unless you are using a computer at an institution that has a subscription the link will not get you to the article.  But the article estimates that the BVI registers about $1.5 trillion of corporate and personal wealth:

“Offshore companies in the British Virgin Islands have assets of more than $1.5tn, more than twice the sum estimated in 2010.

“Two-thirds of the offshore companies registered in the BVI are used for “corporate structuring”, and more than 140 listed businesses in London, New York and Hong Kong have a unit in the BVI, according to research carried out on behalf of the BVI government.”

The money is probably not physically present in the BVI but governments which wish to tax that wealth has no idea who owns it.  The BVI claims not to be a “tax haven”.  According to Lorna Smith, interim executive director of BVI Finance: “The BVI has never been a secrecy jurisdiction. We adhere to privacy for clients.”  If one can tell me the difference between secrecy and privacy, let me know.  Just for information, the BVI is about 58 square miles and has a population of about 30,000 people.

Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Egypt have issued a list of 13 demands to Qatar before they will lift the blockade on the small country.  The demands are extensive, including a demand that Qatar reduce its diplomatic representation with Iran, a demand that ignores the fact that Iran and Qatar share one of the world’s largest natural gas fields.  The states are also demanding that Qatar shut down its media outlet, al Jazeera.  The Washington Post has a good article on why Saudi Arabia hates al Jazeera so much.  Qatar was given 10 days to comply, but it is extremely doubtful that Qatar will accede to all the demands.  Kuwait is trying to mediate the crisis, but these extreme demands suggest that there might be little willingness to make any concessions.