Origins is an online journal for students of history, In the current issue it asked three historians to examine the historical roots of the rise of populism in three countries: the US, the Philippines, and Hungary. The comparative histories make for an interesting read. But perhaps the most important insight of the essays is that “populism” has deep roots and that its rise in the world today should not have been unexpected. The editor’s note to the essays explains the reasons why the world seems to have caught unaware:
“After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Western politicians and commentators trumpeted the triumph of liberal democracy. Around the world, it seemed, democracy was on the march—in the former communist regimes of Eastern Europe, in large parts of Africa, and elsewhere in the developing world. Now, even the most optimistic must concede that the democratic wave has stalled and, in many places, is retreating. Voters across the globe have embraced some version of “populism” as a backlash against liberal democracy.”
The histories suggest that the rise of populism will likely not be a permanent feature of future politics, but that is is difficult to predict a turn away from that perspective. David Bromwich has written a long, but highly intelligent, essay for The London Review of Books about how Trump defines his own unique brand of populism–“rich but not refined”. There is a strong ring of truth in the essay:
“Yet in two respects, the authoritarian danger does resemble that of the 1930s in Europe. Trump believes that a unitary bond links him to the real people. He is their voice. And Republican moderates have almost extinguished themselves as a political species. Though party grandees as various as McCain, Romney, G.W. and Jeb Bush declined to support Trump against Clinton in 2016, and the Tea Party favourite Ted Cruz postponed his endorsement until the eleventh hour, congressional Republicans have settled on a policy of co-operation for the sake of party political advantage. Should one apply the word ‘collaborator’ to such people? The word has a certain appropriateness, in spite of the incompleteness of the analogy. The Republican Party began by legitimating Trump and has gone on to normalise the extreme aberration in a way that recalls the passive compliance of King Victor Emmanuel III in 1922 and Field Marshal Hindenburg in 1933.”
1937 Poster Showing King Victor Emmanuel III and Benito Mussolini
1933 Photograph of Field Marshal Hindenburg and Adolf Hitler
It seems as if US President Trump’s approach to foreign policy is highly compartmentalized. That is to say, he does not necessarily see the links between trade policy, strategic policy, or diplomatic strategy. Instead, he pursues each objective as if it were completely independent from other objectives. Thus, he imposes tariffs on China, while at the same time asking for Chinese cooperation in sanctioning Iran. But his policy myopia ignores the way other states perceive US actions as part of a possible coordinated strategy; they tend to link policies as a chess game, not a game of checkers. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Mr. Trump’s trade policy toward China. He sees the issue as purely an economic issue. The Chinese view US policies as part of a larger US strategy to contain the rise of China as a world power. The South China Morning Post explains the perspective:
“Cheng Li, a China expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said that along with trade, a long list of security and other disputes with the US had posed a political dilemma for Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“’If it’s only on the economic and trade front, the Chinese leadership would be willing to compromise,’ Li said.
“The escalating trade tensions had not only hit key engines of China’s economic development – including the Greater Bay Area, the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Corridor – but also had clear implications for the Chinese stock market and even property prices, Li said.
“’That really undermines Xi’s power base – the middle class, which is the most important stabilising force in China – and therefore we began to see criticism and challenges from the intellectuals and the public about Xi’s foreign policy,’ Li said.”
Foreign policy requires a long-term and systemic point of view, not a short-term bilateral transactionalist perspective.
Floods in the Indian state of Kerala have killed more than 350 people and displaced more than 800,000. The floods are the worst in a century and the National Reviewnumber of photographs has a documenting the destruction and the misery of those affected. The rains have begun to subside but it will take years to repair the damage done and millions right now are in desperate straits.
On this day in 1953, the Iranian Premier Mohammed Mosaddeq was overthrown and replaced by the Shah of Iran. Mosaddeq had been elected in 1951 and one of the first acts of the Iranian Majlis (Parliament) was to nationalize the oil reserves of the country which had been leased to the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (now know as BP). Anglo-Iranian prevented other states from purchasing Iranian oil, claiming that it was stolen, and, since oil exports were the primary source of revenues for the government, the Iranian economy slowly declined. By 1953, after having been rebuffed by the US for economic aid, the Iranian government turned to the Soviet Union for aid. US President Eisenhower interpreted that request as a move toward a Communist state and he authorized the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to force the Mosaddeq government from office:
“A previously excised section of an internal CIA history titled “The Battle for Iran“ released in 2013, reads: “The military coup that overthrew Mosaddeq and his National Front cabinet was carried out under CIA direction as an act of U.S. foreign policy, conceived and approved at the highest levels of government.”
The son of the ousted Shah came to power and stayed in power until he also was overthrown by a popular revolution supporting the Ayatollah Khomeini who established the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. Since that time, US-Iranian relations have been intensely hostile. The sanctions that the US wishes to impose on the sale of Iranian oil on 4 November are remarkably similar to the legal actions taken by Anglo-Iranian–they are designed to force a change in the government by fostering discontent within the Iranian population. One could hardly fault the Iranians for believing that the US will also plan to overthrow the government or force a regime change. Americans may have forgotten the role of their government in 1953, but the Iranian people certainly have not.
The bomb that killed 40 school children in Yemen was supplied to Saudi Arabia by the United States. According to CNN, the bomb was “a 500-pound (227 kilogram) laser-guided MK 82 bomb made by Lockheed Martin”. These bombs had been used by the Saudis on two occasions during the Obama Administration and both times innocent civilians were killed in large numbers. President Obama therefore banned the sale of these bombs since the evidence of Saudi carelessness was dramatic and conclusive. Indeed, the United Nations accused the Saudis and their coalition partners of crimes against humanity. That ban was overturned by the Trump Administration in March of 2017 which was followed by a $110 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia. The US complicity in Saudi war crimes is unconscionable.
Fragments of the Bomb that Killed the School Children
Three weeks ago, Gottfried Waldhäusl, environment minister for the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) in the state of Lower Austria. proposed a new law that would have required Jews and Muslims to register if they purchased Kosher or Halal meat. The proposed legislation led to strong protests from many groups who compared the registration requirement as roughly similar to the Nazi-law that required Jews to wear yellow stars. But Austria has also decided to allow driving exams to be taken in Turkish. Last February. the far-right Freedom Party ordered a raid on its own government’s intelligence agency, an absolutely bizarre act compromising the integrity of the country’s most sensitive secrets. The Washington Post characterizes the Freedom Party which has control of the Interior Ministry in the current coalition government:
“The Freedom Party came to power in Austria at the end of last year as the junior partner in a coalition with the center-right. The party was founded by former SS officers in the 1950s, and has ridden anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric to new heights of popularity in recent years. Some of its members have been revealed to share a nostalgia for Hitler’s Third Reich.
“The party has a formal cooperation agreement with President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, and the close ties show. Austria was a notable holdout when European Union nations banded together in March to expel Russian diplomats to protest the poisoning of former double agent Sergei Skripal. Top Austrian officials, meanwhile, have spoken out against the E.U.’s Russian sanctions. On Saturday, Putin is expected to be a guest of honor when Austria’s foreign minister, the Freedom Party-allied Karin Kneissl, gets married.”
The Washington Post has published an article on the temperature records that were set in virtually every part of the planet from May to July of 2018. In particular, Scandinavia experienced the hottest temperatures ever recorded. The ocean temperature near the North Pole is stunningly high: “The image below shows that the sea surface was 22°C or 71.6°F on August 13, 2018, at 77.958°N, 5.545°E (near Svalbard), i.e. 6.9°C or 12.4°F warmer than 47 days earlier and 16.4°C or 29.5°F warmer than it was during 1981-2011”. Arctic News provides the details of how far from normal the ocean temperature is:
“Prominent US climate scientists have told the Guardian that the Trump administration is holding up research funding as their projects undergo an unprecedented political review by the high-school football teammate of the US interior secretary.
“The US interior department administers over $5.5bn in funding to external organizations, mostly for research, conservation and land acquisition. At the beginning of 2018, interior secretary Ryan Zinke instated a new requirement that scientific funding above $50,000 must undergo an additional review to ensure expenditures ‘better align with the administration’s priorities’.
“Zinke has signaled that climate change is not one of those priorities: this week, he told Breitbart News that ‘environmental terrorist groups” were responsible for the ongoing wildfires in northern California and, ignoring scientific research on the issue, dismissed the role of climate change.
The Economic Policy Institute has released its annual report on how much compensation Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) receive. As in previous years, CEO compensation continues to rise dramatically: “By this measure, in 2017 the average CEO of the 350 largest firms in the U.S. received $18.9 million in compensation, a 17.6 percent increase over 2016. The typical worker’s compensation remained flat, rising a mere 0.3 percent. ” The ratio of CEO earnings to the average worker’s earnings is astonishing:
“Average CEO compensation attained its peak in 2000, at the height of the late 1990s stock bubble, at $21.0 million (in 2017 dollars)—344 times the pay of the typical worker. The CEO-to-worker pay ratio dropped to 188-to-1 in 2009, in the wake of the financial crisis but rose to 312-to-1 in 2017, as worker compensation has stagnated in the recovery.
“CEO pay continues to be dramatically higher than it was in the decades before the turn of the millennium. The CEO-to-average-worker pay ratio was 112-to-1 in 1995, 58-to-1 in 1989, 30-to-1 in 1978, and 20-to-1 in 1965.”
“The richest 5 percent of Americans have captured 74 percent of the wealth created in the country from 1983 to 2010, according to a report by the Economic Policy Institute. Another report from the Institute for Policy Studies, a left-leaning think-tank, found that the richest 400 Americans control more wealth than the poorest 80 million U.S. households, and similar research has found the top 1 percent now holding 40 percent of the nation’s wealth.”
Remarkably, none of this data reflects the impact of the tax cuts passed by the US Congress recently. Those changes will undoubtedly aggravate the disparities in wealth and income.
One of the greatest singers of all time has died today. Aretha Franklin sang for me my entire life and she never failed to lift my spirits. She epitomized what Martin Luther King, Jr. called “soul” and she made me acutely aware of how important music is to a meaningful life. Fortunately, her voice will always live on.
Micah Zenko has written an essay for Foreign Policy which is the most honest analysis of the US role in the Saudi Arabian war against Yemen I have yet read. Most Americans are unaware of the war and even less aware of the US role in supporting Saudi Arabia. Zenko starts out the essay by pointing out that US support for Saudi Arabia goes back to the Obama Administration:
“Washington’s participation began on March 26, 2015, when a White House spokesperson announced, ‘President Obama has authorized the provision of logistical and intelligence support to [Gulf Cooperation Council]-led military operations.’ On March 26, toward the end of a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) asked U.S. Central Command commander Gen. Lloyd Austin what the ultimate goal of the GCC air campaign in Yemen was, and for the general to estimate its likelihood of success.
“Gen. Austin answered with refreshing honesty: ‘I don’t currently know the specific goals and objectives of the Saudi campaign, and I would have to know that to be able to assess the likelihood of success.’ Gillibrand replied, ‘Well, I do hope you get the information sooner than later.’ In other words, the military commander responsible for overseeing the provision of support for a new air war in the Middle East did not know what the goals of the intervention were, or how he could evaluate whether it was successful. The United States had become a willing co-combatant in a war without any direction or clear end state.
Zenko’s concluding paragraph says it all:
“The United States has been directly engaged in the civil war since March 25, 2015, and its support has not prevented the killing of innocents. It is time to phase out and terminate America’s support for the Saudi-led component of this civil war, and, more importantly, never again go to war, or support other’s wars, without purpose or objectives.”
The dispute between Turkey and the US over the fate of an American pastor, Andrew Brunson, has quickly escalated and the turmoil has brought the Turkish economy to the brink of disaster. That the Trump Administration has focused so intently on one US citizen is somewhat inexplicable given that there are 50,000 Turks who have been imprisoned and a large number of foreign nationals, including 12 Americans. It is clear that the Administration has been willing to compromise its relations with Turkey over the fate of a Christian pastor without mentioning the other prisoners is testimony to the power of the evangelical lobby. At the White House press briefing today, Sarah Sanders said:
“We feel that Turkey and specifically President Erdogan have treated Pastor Brunson, who we know to be a very good person and a strong Christian, who has done nothing wrong, very unfairly. And it’s something that we won’t forget in the administration.”
QUESTION: Why is it important, this one American, to put global financial stability at risk, put U.S. base presence in Turkey at risk, put a NATO ally – an alliance with a NATO partner at risk, for one American who’s being put through the Turkish justice system?
MS NAUERT: So you’re saying this is our fault?
QUESTION: No, I’m saying why —
MS NAUERT: This situation is our fault?
QUESTION: Why escalate it to that level for a single American who has —
MS NAUERT: I think —
QUESTION: — not been tortured or treated – he’s being put through the Turkish justice system.
MS NAUERT: I think that I would take issue with the premise of your question. In terms of the financial situation in Turkey, we addressed this yesterday, and Turkey’s financial situation has been in the works for quite some time and it dates prior to the imposition of sanctions on August – I believe it was August the 1st. So this has been in train for quite some time and you cannot blame the U.S. Government for that.
We have a very broad relationship with the Government of Turkey. Of course, with all nations, as a general matter, we will often have areas where we don’t always agree, where we don’t always see eye to eye, but we also have areas where we do work together and cooperate, and Turkey would be one of those governments where we sometimes have areas where we disagree and we certainly sometimes have areas where we cooperate as well. Okay.
QUESTION: But this isn’t one thing that you simply disagree one area. This has been put to the forefront of everything.
MS NAUERT: And your question is?
QUESTION: So why is this one more important than all the others, it seems?
MS NAUERT: You’re trying to single out one individual, and I have stood here repeatedly, as have many of my colleagues, to speak about other people who have been detained in that country. Our chief mission is the protection of American citizens. That would obviously include Pastor Brunson. We also have three locally employed staff. I spoke about them just yesterday and was very clear with all of you that that is a major concern of ours. There is also a NASA scientist who has been detained by the Turkish Government; that is important to us as well, and you’ve heard that come out of the State Department, you’ve heard that come out of the White House, and from our other colleagues as well.
The US is sending a three-star general to investigate the horrific bombing of a school bus in Yemen which led to the deaths of 40 children and 11 adults. The UN is also launching an investigation. The investigations come because the Saudi Arabian defenses for the attack seem hardly compelling in light of what was clearly a war crime. The Saudis claim that they were targeting leaders of the Houthi rebels and that the attack was “legitimate.” The US has taken a “Pontius Pilate” position on the tragedy, insisting that it was not responsible, despite providing the armaments, intelligence, and refueling of the jets that conducted the attacks. ABC News quotes US Defense Secretary Mattis on the strike:
“On Sunday, Mattis told reporters that the U.S. is ‘not engaged in the civil war,’ emphasizing that the U.S. military does not do any dynamic targeting for the coalition.
“‘We will help to prevent the killing of innocent people, we’re very concerned about the humanitarian situation,’ Mattis said, adding, ‘Wars are always tragic, but we’ve got to find a way to protect innocent in the midst of this one.’
“Col. Turki al-Malki, a spokesman for the coalition in Yemen, said last week that the coalition had launched an operation in Saada in response to Houthi fighters firing a missile on the Saudi city of Jizan on Wednesday evening.
The US position of denying its responsibility in this horror is indefensible and morally reprehensible.
The Taliban have launched a major attack on the Afghan city of Ghazni, leading to significant losses of life in the Afghan military and constabulary as well as within the insurgent ranks. The war in Afghanistan does not figure prominently in the American consciousness despite its distinction of being the longest war in US history. US troops have been sent in to reinforce the Afghan troops and the city appears to still be under government control. The fighting occurred despite the truce that was declared at the end of June. The battle suggests that the Taliban are far from defeated.
“In three public addresses, Erdogan lashed out at the United States, threatening to find new alliances and new markets. He also took higher interest rates off the table and said Turkey wouldn’t accept an international bailout. His message was essentially the opposite of what investors have called for to stem the plunge in the markets.”
“At a time when evil continues to lurk around the world, unilateral actions against Turkey by the United States, our ally of decades, will only serve to undermine American interests and security. Before it is too late, Washington must give up the misguided notion that our relationship can be asymmetrical and come to terms with the fact that Turkey has alternatives. Failure to reverse this trend of unilateralism and disrespect will require us to start looking for new friends and allies.”
The threat to the unity of NATO is unmistakable and there are countries in the region–notably Russia and Iran–who will seek to exploit this fissure. Erdogan also indicated that Turkey would be willing to trade with its other major trading partners in local currencies and not use the dollar, echoing rising sentiments in many other countries to stop using the dollar as a reserve currency. If a sufficient number of other countries stop using the dollar for international transactions, the US will find that the dollar will be subjected to pressures that will constrain US control over its interest rates, its budgets, and its bonds. The financial markets will be watching closely to see if the instability in Turkey spreads to major banks and, from the, to other emerging markets.
“EIA estimates that there were 48 billion barrels of oil and 292 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas in proved and probable reserves within the basins that make up the Caspian Sea and surrounding area in 2012. Offshore fields account for 41% of total Caspian crude oil and lease condensate (19.6 billion barrels) and 36% of natural gas (106 Tcf). In general, most of the offshore oil reserves are in the northern part of the Caspian Sea, while most of the offshore natural gas reserves are in the southern part of the Caspian Sea.
“In addition, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates another 20 billion barrels of oil and 243 Tcf of natural gas in as yet undiscovered, technically recoverable resources. Much of this is located in the South Caspian Basin, where territorial disputes over offshore waters hinder exploration.”
Negotiations over the resources have been going on for almost three decades, and this agreement represents a turning point in the relations of the countries abutting the Sea. Iran has also reached agreement with China to develop the South Pars Gas field, the world’s largest natural gas reservoir. China will take over the role of the French oil company Total, which had the rights to develop the field but stopped working on the gas field because of the sanctions on Iran. Bloomberg describes the new deal:
“China National Petroleum Corp. is expected to take the lead on a $5 billion project to develop Iran’s share of the world’s biggest gas deposit, taking over from France’s Total SA, which halted operations after U.S. President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
“State-owned CNPC, which joined a consortium with Total and Iran’s Petropars Ltd. in 2016 to develop Phase 11 of the South Pars Gas field, is set to increase its stake in the project from the current 30 percent. Total had originally agreed to take a 50.1 percent interest.”
There are two relevant points to make about these agreements. First, it seems clear that many countries are willing to work with Iran despite the US insistence that all economic ties with Iran be terminated. We will have to see how the Trump Administration responds to these acts of defiance. Second, all of the countries are highly dependent on oil and gas revenues and one can expect them to develop these fossil fuels as quickly as possible. In a world faced with climate change brought about by greenhouse gas emissions, the last thing it needed was for more oil and natural gas become available for consumption. Agreements to limit greenhouse gas emissions will likely become more difficult.
“Venezuela, the country with the largest known oil reserves in the world, is bankrupt. It once was one of the richest nations on the continent, but now the people are starving, especially in the interior of the country. The economy collapsed in 2014, and now there are regular protests and riots because stores lack food and everyday items like toilet paper and detergent. Armed guards stand at the entryways of supermarkets, and the annual inflation rate of 42,000 percent is eating up people’s incomes. The poor are starving, the weak and the sick are dying, youths are joining criminal gangs. Anyone who can afford to is leaving the country.”
Global financial markets were roiled today as the Turkish lira fell by almost 17% in value. The Turkish economy has been sputtering lately as confidence in the Erdogan government has declined, but the diplomatic spat between the US and Turkey over the imprisonment of an American evangelical, Andrew Brunson two years ago on charges that he had participated in a failed coup attempt against Erdogan. The US slapped sanctions on Turkish officials to coerce Brunson’s release, but the Turks have adamantly refused. In retaliation, US President Trump doubled the tariffs on Turkish aluminum and steel and the global markets took this as a sign that the Turkish economy would stop growing. In turn, markets feared that banks which have lent money to Turkey–primarily Spanish, Italian, and French banks–would lose substantial amounts of money. Global stock markets slumped on the fears of contagion.
The Russian ruble also fell as Russia angrily denounced the additional sanctions the US has imposed on it for the chemical weapons attack in Great Britain. Those sanctions are required by US law and will become even more severe–including the right to deny the Russian airline, Aeroflot, from landing on US soil–if the Russians deny the UN the right to inspect its chemical weapons facilities (also required by US law). According to Politico: “Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned Friday that his nation could retaliate against the United States’ newly issued economic sanctions, saying it would consider any action against its banks an act of economic war.” The ruble fell by about 5% as investors feared that foreign investors will stay away from Russia because of likely economic weakness in the year ahead.
Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Joseph Kabila announced that he will not seek a third term. Kabila came to power in 2001 after his father was assassinated and his second term–his last according to Congo’s constitution–ended in 2016. He has refused to step down, citing unrest in the country, but there was tremendous domestic and international pressure for him to obey the constitution. Congo has a tremendous resource base and could potentially be a very rich country, but years of colonial and strongman rule have made effective governance impossible. Perhaps, Kabila’s decision will turn that page.
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