World Politics News   Articles for World Politics Course

We’re still assessing the fallout from the Gaza war, and the universal sentiment is that Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of Fatah in the West bank, is the biggest loser of the conflict.  Perversely, that outcome is the worst one for Israel, since Abbas represents the only player in the game that still accepts the two-state solution.  If Abbas loses all credibility, then the only solution will be that offered by Hamas.  Interestingly, Israel may decide to re-open serious negotiations with Fatah in order to avoid this outcome.  Obviously, the US would leap at this option, and may be willing to exert pressure on Israel to push it in this direction.

A cease-fire has been announced in the Gaza conflict, and we are all waiting to see if it takes hold.  The cease-fire was announced by the Egyptians and the Americans, a signal that the US has fully embraced the new Egyptian government (a very good sign).  The details of the case-fire are somewhat obscure right now, so I won’t comment on the terms until I have better information.  Both the Israelis and Hamas are claiming victory, and, in truth, both sides can assert some advantages from the fight.  But the most important issue is whether the cease-fire has a direction toward a more lasting peace.

As we learn more about the terms of the cease-fire, one of the most important items to watch for is how the current blockade surrounding Gaza will be lifted.  In international law, a blockade is usually considered an act of war, but Israel has maintained tight control over all imports and exports from the Gaza, including items that really have no connection to a military capability.  The blockade is also largely responsible for the stunning poverty of the people living within the Gaza.

The World Meteorological Organization has just issued its annual report on the emission of greenhouse gases, and it is a sobering report.   We’ve made very little progress in reducing the rate at which greenhouse gases are being emitted, and the time left for effective action is virtually gone.  Adjusting to the new world will be a very difficult and expensive process.

Some information about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from The Economist.

We’re still hearing about a possible cease-fire in Gaza.  The Gallup Poll over time shows how solidly the American people support Israel.  What is particularly interesting, however, about this graph is the large number of people who either blame both sides or have no opinion.

The public support translates into economic assistance to Israel from the United States.  According to the Congressional Research Service:

• “Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. foreign assistance since World War II. To date,  the United States has provided Israel $115 billion in bilateral assistance.”

Source: Jeremy M. Sharp, “U.S. Foreign Aid to Israel,” Congressional Research Service, Washington, DC, 12 March 2012

It may be useful to put the current crisis in Gaza in the context of the previous conflict in Gaza in 2008-09.  The war lasted three weeks, and the stated goal of the Israeli forces was to prevent rocket attacks on Israel emanating from the Gaza and to prevent weapons smuggling into the Gaza.  In those three weeks, which included a ground invasion by Israeli forces, there were between 1,166 and 1,417 Palestinian deaths and 13 Israeli killed (4 of those were from friendly fire, i.e. Israelis shooting other Israelis accidentally).   In September 2009, a UN panel, headed by the South African jurist, Richard Goldstone, found that both Hamas and Israel committed war crimes and possibly crimes against humanity, a conclusion subsequently rejected by Goldstone himself but not by the other members of the panel.   As we wait to find out whether a cease fire is going to be accepted at this time, it is useful to note that the same issues seem to underlie the current conflict.

A significant difference from 2008-09 is that Hamas now has support of many other Arab states due to the changes brought about by the Arab Spring.  Correspondingly, Israel has lost two major allies, Turkey and Egypt, since the last Gaza War.  Whether this outside support will make a difference remains to be seen.

The New York Times ran an op-ed piece today entitled “Europe’s New Fascists.”  The essay runs through some of the reasons why the right-wing in Europe is on the rise.  It’s an important piece on an issue that deserves greater attention.

One of the principles of the Just War Doctrine is proportionality of violence.  The Israelis claim that rocket attacks against Israel justifies their actions in the Gaza as consistent with the right of self-defense, an argument that is no doubt true.  But it is difficult to determine how much the rocket attacks have affected Israel, and whether the current actions in Gaza are consistent with that level of violence.  Mondoweiss is a blog with clear Palestinian sympathies, but it has run an analysis of the rocket attacks that seems to be very rigorous and validated by outside sources.  I recommend that everyone read the posting carefully and with a skeptical eye.  But, if accurate, the analysis suggests that the current attacks by Israel are clearly disproportionate to the violence inflicted by Hamas on Israel.

It’s difficult to appreciate the violence in Gaza because the circumstances are quite different from ordinary experience.  The Gaza Strip has about twice the land area of the US District of Columbia (Washington, DC);  Israel is about the size of the US state, New Jersey.   The Gaza has a population of 1.7 million; Israel has a population of about 7.5 million.  The Gross Domestic Product per capita in the Gaza is $1,100; Israel has a per capita GDP of $25,800.  But perhaps the most important characteristic of the conflict is that there is quite literally no place for the people of Gaza to go for safety.  All exit routes from Gaza are tightly controlled and, unless the Egyptian open up their border, the people of Gaza are trapped.

President Obama will soon be the first American President to ever visit the country of Burma.   The changes that have occurred in Burma are truly historic and reflect the changing balance of power in the world:  Burma is clearly worried about the growing power of China and is looking to the US as a counterweight to Chinese power.  The price of US support?  Moving toward a more democratic system.  We are witnessing the exercise of hegemonic power–very subtle, but inexorable.

Analysts continue to puzzle over Israel’s use of social media to describe the current violence in the Gaza Strip.  There are no clear answers to the question and, most likely, we’ll never know the truthful answer.  But the Israeli Defense Force has a Facebook account on the Gaza operation, labelled “Pillar of Defense” as well as a Twitter account.   The is also a Twitter account for those sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, https://twitter.com/search?q=%23gazaunderattack.  Additionally, the hacker group, Anonymous, has joined the battle on the Palestinian side.  I will concede that I doubt that Clausewitz ever conceived of such activities as part of war, but it convincingly proves that there cannot be a separation between domestic and foreign policy.

Stephen Walt, a noted critic of Israeli policy, proposes a very interesting thought experiment to help think about the current violence in the Gaza.  Thought experiments (or counterfactuals as they are called in the social sciences) are intriguing ways to think about problems that seem to be intractable.

Israel also faces a new crisis to its east–the very serious public protests against King Abdullah in Jordan.  If the Muslim Brotherhood were to come to power in Jordan, Israel would have lost three close allies in the space of three years: Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan.  If Syria were to come under control of the Brotherhood, its encirclement would be complete.  One can be certain that the Israelis are desperately worried about this contingency.

The looming, but longer-term, crisis of climate change continues to get little media attention, but our lack of interest will not delay the crisis.  Jeremy Grantham, a noted financial whiz, puts the question of resource consumption and climate change into the context of world politics.  The long term trends are quite dispiriting.

I am afraid that many of my postings for the immediate future will be on the violence in the Gaza Strip.  We’re still trying to parse out the motives for the manner by which Israel has broadcast its attacks–a sharp deviation from its previously close-mouthed approach to its activities.  The consensus so far is that Israel is trying to bait Hamas into a wider conflict.  This possibility is real, but it could also be the case that the Israelis have decided that the advent of social media has rendered its previous silence irrelevant.  No matter what the reason, it remains to be seen whether Hamas will attempt to widen the war.

Coordinated protests against the economic austerity programs broke out in 23 European countries.  Even though millions of Europeans participated in the protests, the American media has pretty much ignored them, choosing instead to focus on the extra-marital affair of General Petraeus.  The economic situation in Europe is sharply deteriorating and it is hard to imagine that slowdown not seriously affecting the rest of the world.

The Chinese have finally announced their new leadership for the next ten years.  Scholars are still going over the names to glean some hints about the future direction of the country, but the initial analyses tend to suggest a more conservative and less reform-minded leadership.

The Israeli Defense Forces released a You Tube video showing the assassination of Ahmed Jabri, the Hamas military chief.  At the same time it released the following Tweet:

• We recommend that no Hamas operatives, whether low level or senior leaders, show their faces above ground in the days ahead.

Such actions are specifically designed to be inflammatory–Live Blogging a war is truly in bad taste.  It appears as if Israel is hoping to provoke Hamas so that a larger Israeli strike can be justified.

Interestingly, as the Israelis were using social media to broadcast their interests, other parts of social media were blocking the dissemination of other interests, specifically the photographs of a group called The Uprising of Women in the Arab World.  Consistency is hard to implement in the decentralized world of the web.

The United Nations Population Fund has declared that access to contraception is a universal human right.  The declaration has no legal force, and it is difficult to determine how a unilateral statement by a UN Agency can achieve legal status.  Meanwhile, a woman in Ireland died after being denied an abortion in accordance with Irish law.

France has recognized the Syrian opposition as the Syrian government in exile.  It is the first western government to do so, although many Arab states have already made the move.  In essence, France has determined that the opposition movement now represents the Syrian people and is the sovereign power in Syria.  We will have to see whether other governments follow suit.  We will also have to find out what agreements were made between France and the opposition about military assistance and financial assistance.

The “troika” (the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund) is publicly disagreeing about the pace of the austerity programs imposed on Greece.  Interestingly, the IMF seems to be the party holding the harder line (one would expect Germany to be the bad guy on the issue).  But it is a good sign that at least some outsiders are coming to the conclusion that continued austerity is not the correct strategy to help Greece out of its economic difficulties.  Spanish banks have gotten the message after two suicides induce a freeze on evictions.

Latin America is the only region in the world that has not faced a dramatic increase in income inequality in recent years.  It is also a region that has experienced strong economic growth.  The World Bank suggests that the two trends are clearly causally related.  If true, the finding lends significant support to those who argue that income redistribution is good for economic growth, a conclusion flatly rejected by most neoliberal economists.