It may be useful to put the current crisis in Gaza in the context of the previous conflict in Gaza in 2008-09. The war lasted three weeks, and the stated goal of the Israeli forces was to prevent rocket attacks on Israel emanating from the Gaza and to prevent weapons smuggling into the Gaza. In those three weeks, which included a ground invasion by Israeli forces, there were between 1,166 and 1,417 Palestinian deaths and 13 Israeli killed (4 of those were from friendly fire, i.e. Israelis shooting other Israelis accidentally). In September 2009, a UN panel, headed by the South African jurist, Richard Goldstone, found that both Hamas and Israel committed war crimes and possibly crimes against humanity, a conclusion subsequently rejected by Goldstone himself but not by the other members of the panel. As we wait to find out whether a cease fire is going to be accepted at this time, it is useful to note that the same issues seem to underlie the current conflict.
A significant difference from 2008-09 is that Hamas now has support of many other Arab states due to the changes brought about by the Arab Spring. Correspondingly, Israel has lost two major allies, Turkey and Egypt, since the last Gaza War. Whether this outside support will make a difference remains to be seen.
http://app.response.stratfor.com/e/es?s=1483&e=612758&elq=ee42bb2bf2b144f384706e89f62ca411
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Thanks for the link–some very interesting insights.
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