The expansion of Israeli settlements announced yesterday is more significant than it first appears. The plans will effectively divide the West Bank into a northern and southern zone with an Israeli settlement in the middle. It is hard to imagine how Palestine could exist as a viable non-contiguous state. Moreover, the settlements issue is what made Germany decide to abstain on the UN vote. Germany is one of Israel’s staunchest supporters, but it had asked for an Israeli statement on the future of the settlements, a request that the Israelis apparently ignored.
The M23 rebels have left the city of Goma in a move that suggests the possibility that Uganda’s peace overtures have had some effect. M23’s objective was to remove President Kabila from his position in Congo, and it is unlikely that Kabila will resign. The dispute between Kabila of Congo and Kagame of Rwanda needs to be mediated by some entity–it should not be allowed to spill over into such horrific violence.
Robert Skidelsky is a prominent economist who has an interesdting perspective on the economic crisis on 2007-08 and its lingering effects on contemporary economic growth. It is a perspective that suggests that the real driver of the economic malaise of the last 5 years is income inequality and not bad credit. It is worth a read.
Unemployment in Europe has reached record highs. The austerity measures pursued by the IMF and the European Union are having a decided effect on economic growth rates: inflation rates are very low, but the price is high unemployment. The political price of these policies is both the growth of the political right-wing and the large protests which have yet to congeal into a definable political movement. But Europe is only part of the equation–economic growth rates in India, Brazil, and Canada are also declining.
The day after the Palestinian Authority was granted non-member observer state status at the UN, Israel announced that it was going to build 3,000 new settlement homes in East Jerusalem. The settlements are a major obstacle in the peace negotiations between Israel and the PA, and there is virtually unanimous legal opinion that the settlements are illegal under international law. It is likely that the Israeli announcement is more connected with the upcoming national election in Israel in January than it is to the UN vote. It nonetheless, represents an additional obstacle to the negotiations.
China has announced that, as of 1 January, it will assert the right to board and search any ship within what it regards as its territorial waters. As you can see from the map, the area of alleged control is huge (and pretty far from China’s shores).
The New York Times has published an excellent interactive map on the issues surrounding the border issues associated with the creation of a Palestinian state coexisting next to the state of Israel. I highly recommend the map for those of you who find the Israeli-Palestinian dispute intractable: once you break down the different parts of the dispute, none of the specific issues appears to be insurmountable.
The UN General Assembly has voted 138-9 to grant non-member observer state (a huge step up from having its current non-member observer entity). The status is still short of full membership, but it represents an important change. The composition of the majority was also significant since France, Spain, Italy and the Scandinavian countries were in favor of the resolution while Britain, Germany and the Netherlands abstained. The US and Israel were profoundly isolated in their opposition. We will await any possible repercussions.
Scientists have finally been able to make accurate measurements of the rates of ice melt in both Greenland and Antarctica, and, unfortunately, the ice is melting at a rate faster than that predicted by the climate change models. One would think that this new evidence would stimulate more effective action against greenhouse gas emissions, but such a result remains unlikely.
The far-right Jobbik Party in Hungary has rattled Europe. Its deputy leader has called for Jews to be registered on lists as threats to national security. Fortunately, the party does not have a significant voice in the Parliament (44 out of 386 seats), but it is remarkable that such statements would be made at all.
There are times when the news simply seems weird. Here are some interesting stories from Europe. 1) Denmark repeals its law making it a crime to insult God (although it is still a crime to insult the Queen); 2) Germany moves to ban bestiality; 3) Poland has ruled that the ritual slaughter of animals is illegal; and 4) European farmers sprayed milk all over the European Parliament building. There must be a thread that unites these stories, but I can’t’ yet figure it out.
The economic situation in Greece defies comprehension as the lives of ordinary citizens change in ways they had never expected. The Guardian published a piece on how people are trying to make ends meet in Greece–a turn of events likely to be replicated in several other places in the world over the next few years.
Catalonia has elected a parliament that includes a majority of members who favor independence from Spain. The Spanish system of government is distinctly federal with the various regions of Spain already having a high degree of autonomy, much to the dismay of the central government which ends up trying to pay the bills of the various provincial governments. Indeed, Catalonian independence is being seriously considered because of the problems that Spain is encountering in making sure that its financial system stays afloat. Since Catalonia is such an economically dynamic part of the Spanish economy, its defection would be a serious blow to the Spanish state.
We are learning more about the cease-fire between Hamas and Israel, but the more we learn, the more we realize that the two sides agreed on virtually nothing other than a cessation to shooting. There are incredible ambiguities in the alleged agreement and the longevity of the cease-fire really depends upon Egypt and the US leaning on both sides not to open fire again. As long as both Israel and Hamas believe that they have little to lose from the cease-fire, it will hold. But it doesn’t seem as if it is more than a brief respite right now. Meanwhile, Fatah is poised to hold a vote on its UN status on Thursday: that vote could affect how both Hamas and Israel perceive the benefits of the cease-fire.
The M23 rebel force continues to press on in its attempt to overthrow the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Uganda is feverishly trying to host a conference to reach a peaceful settlement, but the effort seems doomed to fail. At this point, the outside world remains completely silent on the turmoil in the region.
Landing a jet on an aircraft carrier is incredibly difficult, and the Chinese have achieved this small, but symbolic, step. The feat is a signal to all of Asia that the Chinese are moving toward a regional military capability. In the light of all the territorial disputes in the region, the message is sure to cause great unease.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is meeting in Qatar for its 18th meeting. Last year’s meeting was a total dud: few commitments were made and only tentative, ad hoc agreements were secured. This year’s meeting does not promise any major breakthroughs either, but the increasing evidence of serious, more immediate problems in the global climate may change that dynamic. The US has made no noises about this meeting, but the lack of attention may be a result of the election. And, given the recent power transition in China, it may also be the case that the Chinese will bring nothing new to the table.
Drones (or, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, as the Pentagon wishes to term them) have transformed warfare, but their use was never anticipated by the laws of war. Many people have serious moral problems with drones, largely fueled by the secrecy surrounding their use. The Obama Administration is trying to write rules governing drones, but it is not clear that the rules can be meaningful as long as we lack the ability to assess whether they are being followed.
The situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been unstable for many years, and more people have died in that conflict than in any other since the end of World War II. The conflict is fueled by many factors, among them the riches of central Africa, ethnic cleavages among the peoples of the region, and the grinding poverty of the area. The most recent outbreak of violence has seen a rebel group–called M23 and supported primarily by the Rwandan leader, Paul Kagame–made inroads into the territory of the Congo. There are urgent efforts to try to bring about a cease-fire, but it doesn’t appear that these efforts will bear fruit.
Climate change was completely ignored in the US Presidential debate, and the consumption of hydrocarbons (the chief greenhouse gas source) continues to grow at unprecedented rates. The world may choose to act as if nothing is happening, but the evidence is overwhelming that the climate is clearly beginning to change.
Perhaps the worst legacy of the recent war in Gaza is the sense that the Palestinians have developed that peaceful change is completely unlikely. There aren’t many historical examples of peoples giving up a pursuit of justice by simply giving in. So it is highly likely that a more violent approach will be adopted in the future.
Violence has broken out in Egypt as secularists in Egypt protested new powers asserted by President Morsi seemed to fly in the face of the constitutional processes of reform. The violence comes just a few days after Morsi successfully brokered a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel, indicating that while the majority of Egyptians favor his peace-keeping role, they care more about domestic politics and the state of the Egyptian economy. Just as in the US, domestic policy trumps foreign policy. The protests, however, will certainly give the US pause in embracing Morsi fully as an ally, something that seemed almost assured a few days ago.
The European Union discussion on its new 7-year budget has broken down. The contentious issues included the British demand for greater austerity and the French demand for maintaining the very expensive (and trade-violating) agricultural subsidies. Acrimony is not usual in these discussions, but the EU has an informal rule that the budget should never be more than 1% of the total Gross Domestic Product of the Union itself. The proposed budget was within this tradition, but the fissures within the Union–essentially along the same lines as the debt crises within the Union–appear to be quite serious. Since the EU as a whole seems headed for a recession, the budget discussions could be quite protracted.
As we near our discussion on globalization, it is perhaps instructive to think a little about how wages abroad affect domestic wages. US wages have remained stagnant for about 40 years and most Americans complain about jobs going overseas and how low wages abroad are responsible for the lack of wage growth in America. Walmart, however, is an example where that explanation is not completely accurate. Here’s a guide to thinking about the union controversy at Walmart.
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