President Obama has recognized the Syrian National Council as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people. The isolation of the Assad regime is virtually complete except for the Russians and Iranians. It is unlikely that any tangible changes will occur right away, but we can expect the US and the EU to begin coordinating activities to start bringing assistance to the rebel groups. The die is now cast. At the same time, the US has blacklisted the al-Nusra rebel group as a terrorist organization.
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (or drones) are changing the landscape of warfare (and will become an increasingly important part of domestic security programs). The Council for Foreign Relations has published a great backgrounder on these new weapons.
The talks between the M23 rebels, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Uganda are apparently leading nowhere. The news is especially grim for the civilians in eastern Congo and it does not appear as if there is any interest whatsoever in restarting the talks. The outside world must take steps to force all the parties into more serious negotiations.
The opposition in Egypt has decided oppose openly the referendum on the new constitution. The decision sets up a real confrontation which will likely be violent. Referenda held during violent demonstrations are very difficult to interpret, which often leads to greater violence. It would have been far better to have deferred the vote for a short period of time.
The US is scrambling for some traction within the Syrian opposition movement. It has selected some groups within the opposition to support and designated other faction as terrorist organizations. Fine-tuning support within a very disorganized group is likely a bootless task–I am not sure that any of the groups really cares who is on what list. One could begin to describe Obama’s policy toward Syria as feckless.
The Global Climate Change Conference in Qatar is now over, and the initial reports is that not much progress was made. We will wait for the final report before we assess its impact. But time is certainly running out as this article in Der Spiegel argues. The world has long passed the point where significant change could be avoided.
The Russian press has noted that the US has sent one of its aircraft carrier groups, the USS Eisenhower, to the coast of Syria. Such a move is not surprising, but it indicates that the US has solidified the contingency plans for an intervention in Syria. What we don’t know is whether any other NATO countries have deployed troops in the region. And we don’t know what might be the trigger for an intervention, although the Syrian use of chemical weapons is a clear bet.
The right wing is on the rise in Japan, mirroring the rise of right wing parties in other parts of the world. The sense of loss, injured national pride, and economic turmoil all contribute to the appeal of nationalist parties that urge a renewed commitment to old traditions and practices. As the world becomes increasingly uncertain, we can be certain that these movements will gather strength.
The protests in Egypt are continuing and we’re still waiting to see what Morsi’s next move will be. There are a number of analysts who are already writing off the Egyptian Revolution as hopelessly lost, Such judgments are profoundly premature, as argued by Stephen Walt. His argument is definitely worth considering. The latest reports have Morsi annulling his dictatorial powers, but sticking to the 15 December referendum. We’ll see if this concession is enough to settle things down for a short while.
Rania Abouzeid published an essay in Time magazine about a young Syrian soldier who defected from the Syrian army and become a sniper for the rebels. The essay is deeply moving and troubling, raising some of the incredibly difficult issues in determining right and wrong in a civil war. The young man is amazingly clear-headed about the moral indefensibility of his actions, and yet remains committed to the idea that he is doing the right thing.
Silvio Berlusconi essentially brought down the technocratic government of Mario Monti in Italy, by announcing his intention to run for office again. Monti’s leadership depended on the support Berlusconi’s party in Parliament, and the defection of that party from the coalition leaves Monti without a majority. We’ll have to see how the international markets react to this change on Monday, since Italy virtually collapsed economically under Berlusconi’s previous administration. Not a good step for Europe.
The reports concerning the possible use of chemical weapons in Syria have been greeted with skepticism by the Russians. The Russian Foreign Minister reminded the world that similar warnings were made about Iraq prior to the US invasion in 2003. Syrian activists outside of Syrian are also skeptical of the claim.
The German economy, long the mainstay of the overall European economy, is slowing down, suggesting that the entire European economy might be heading back into a recession. Given the economic growth rates in several of those countries is already negative, the news is hardly good.
There has been increased emphasis on trying to figure out a diplomatic solution to the horrible violence in Central Africa. Negotiations are at best fitful, and the lack of sustained attention to the underlying dynamics of the violence undermines all attempts at diplomacy. Foreign Policy ran a good article on how to proceed with a possible solution.
The climate talks in Qatar are nearing an end, and it appears as if no progress has been made on the issue of climate change. At least the parties are talking about how greenhouse gas reductions can be paid for–being aware of the price that needs to be paid is a step forward. But there were no concrete proposals made by any of the parties that seemed to have a chance of being accepted. We’ll have to wait for another year.
There are an increasing number of reports in the US media (but not outside the US) about the possibility of Syrian troops using its chemical weapons in the civil war. I really cannot assess the veracity of these reports because I don’t know on what information the reports are based. The reports, however, seem to suggest that US Secretary of State Clinton is meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister about the matter (since the Russians supply the Syrians with all their weapons). If they are meeting, then the situation is truly serious.
The Egyptian standoff continues, and President Morsi backed off a little, calling his assertion of near-dictatorial power “temporary.” The protesters, however, are not accepting his position and have surrounded the palace. It does seem, however, that there are some who are seeking a way out–whether these efforts can be successful depends a great deal on what happens in the street.
The Israeli decision to expand its settlements in the E1 zone (East Jerusalem) has elicited a negative response from many sectors that is especially sharp and highly unusual. In particular, several European nations summoned their Israeli Ambassadors for an explanation of the move. The Palestinians are vowing to bring the matter to the UN Security Council which will bring the matter to a head for the US. The US is on record as opposing the settlement, but would likely veto any Security Council Resolution condemning Israel. The contradiction would be very difficult to explain.
And now: Prepare to have your mind blown (does anyone still say this, or am I just an artifact of a dead age?)
Carbon emissions last year broke previous years’ records, increasing by 3% in 2011. The rate of increase suggests that any efforts to prevent climate change from occurring later on in the century are likely to fail. The climate meetings currently going on in Qatar are not even raising the issue of emission limits. The lack of attention to this issue at the national and international level is mind-boggling.
There have been a flurry of reports today about the movement of chemical weapons in Syria. I’m not at all sure what is going on. One possibility is that the Syrian military is planning to use chemical weapons against civilians. Another possibility is that the international community is emphasizing the possibility of the use of these weapons in order to justify an intervention. We don’t know where the information is coming from (the rebels? the US? Israel?) and that little bit of information would tell us a lot. Keep tuned in.
North Korea is planning on testing a long-range missile that will undoubtedly raise tensions in East Asia. Significantly, both Russia and China have come out in strong opposition to the planned test. The opposition will likely have little effect on the North Koreans, but the expressed opposition will calm the nerves of the Japanese and the South Koreans worried about North Korea acting as a stalking horse for the Chinese.
The situation in Egypt continues to deteriorate. The Egyptian High Court has gone on strike after President Morsi called for a nation-wide referendum on the new constitution to be held on 15 December. Many in Egypt fear that the new constitution does not protect the rights of all Egyptians equally. The difficulty is that many opponents of the new constitution will boycott the referendum, thereby assuring its passage. If that is the outcome, then the only alternative course of action is continued protest.
The new President of Mexico is Enrique Peña Nieto. Pena Nieto returns the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) to power after a brief hiatus. Most US citizens have a very distorted view of Mexico and are unaware of the economic dynamism that has characterized Mexico over the last 10 years. It does, however, have some serious issues that Peña Nieto needs to address.
Many in the world are concerned about China’s recent policy of boarding vessels in what it regards as its territorial waters. We should also worry about the growing nationalist strain in Japanese politics which has been overshadowed by China’s rhetoric but is just as troubling. The two powers do not have a high regard for each other and a long history of hostility.
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