The situation in Mali has escalated into a more global situation as militants have taken Americans and other Westerners hostage in Algeria in retribution for the French assault in Bamako. The Obama Administration had expressed great concern over the French action and it appears as if its fears have been realized.
The World bank has just released its projections for the global economy in 2013 and its estimates are somewhat gloomy. The Bank believes that economic growth will slow, largely because of slower economic growth in the developed world. The Bank is particularly concerned about a possible economic slowdown in Europe which would have ripple effects all over the world.
Beijing pollution has been a concern for a number of years, but the situation seems to be getting worse, not better. Some of the more recent measurements of air pollution in Beijing are, quite literally, off the charts.
Ever since the overthrow of Qaddafi in Libya, violence has disrupted Malian politics. Some of the violence stems from the discontent of the Tuaregs; some of it stems from organized al-Qaeda related groups. France has intervened to prevent these latter groups from seizing power in Mali. One hopes that neighboring African states could be persuaded to support this effort so that it can gain greater legitimacy.
The democratization process occurring within Burma (Myanmar) has been one of the most positive developments of the decade. Interestingly, the process has also moved Burma closer to the orbit of liberal states, reducing the Chinese influence in the state. The shift in allegiances poses a serious change in the balance of power in Southeast and East Asia.
The Pakistani Supreme Court has ordered the arrest of Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf. Some regard the move as a disguised military coup and it has thrown the country into chaos. Pakistan continues to have troubled governance, and it is unclear how this storm will be weathered.
The National Climate Assessment was recently released–a 1000 page document written with the assistance of over 300 scientists in the US. Its conclusions are quite grim, and asserts that climate change is already dramatically affecting the US. The report is supposed to form the basis for appropriate policy action–we’ll see if any are forthcoming.
Recent Chinese economic growth is undeniably one of the most extraordinary achievements in human history. There are signs, however, that the Chinese are not immune to the curse of income inequality. Accurate data are difficult to find, but the best estimates suggest that China may be moving into the role of the most unequal countries in all of Asia. It, like many Western countries, need to address this problem before it turns into a serious political problem.
The confirmation hearings for the US Secretaries of State and Defense will occasion a debate on America’s role in future world affairs. E.J. Dionne,a writer for the Washington Post, has an interesting piece on the issue.
Greek unemployment levels have reached historic highs. The austerity program imposed on Greece has succeeded in reducing the budget deficit to a certain degree, but the human price of that success has been extraordinary, particularly on the 17-24 age bracket. It remains to be seen whether economic growth will return to Greece any time soon.
Violence between India and Pakistan over the disputed territory of Kashmir is slowly accelerating. Relations have been improving between the two states for the last few months, so this recent outbreak of hostilities is difficult to interpret. We’ll have to watch whether this crisis has the potential to explode.
2012 is likely to be the hottest year on record. Meteorologists in Australia have had to develop new colors for their temperature codes to include temperatures over 50 degrees C. The four hottest temperatures ever recorded in Australian history were in 2012 and wildfires are ravaging the continent. The evidence for climate change continues to mount even though the direct links cannot yet be conclusively drawn.
The political situation in Venezuela has become quite murky. President Chavez, who recently won re-election, is quite sick and his inauguration has been postponed. The rules of succession are not crystal clear under such circumstances, and the Vice-President claims to be “holding” the office until Chavez’s health concerns are resolved. One could easily imagine turmoil in the country is Chavez’s illness leaves him incapacitated for an extended period of time. The US is likely hoping for a change in government.
There have been small but persistent protests in China over censorship of the newspaper, Southern Weekend. The protests are notable because the language in defense of free speech in China has been quite direct and explicit. The protesters are taking their position in open confrontation to the government which has yet to respond in any direct manner. We’ll have to see whether the protests grow larger over the next few days.
Sudan and South Sudan have agreed to set up a buffer zone in order to minimize the border violence between the two states. There are many issues that separate the two states–oil reserves and migratory patterns of some of the nomadic peoples in the region–most of which were apparent when the South seceded from Sudan. One can only hope that the buffer zone will give the two states the necessary space to resolve these issues.
Mahmoud Abbas has ordered the Palestinian Authority to start issuing official documents identifying the issuing authority as “Palestine” and not the “Palestinian Authority.” The change signifies the ongoing effort to elevate the status of Palestine to that of a state. We don’t yet know what Israel’s response will be to this effort, but we will have a clearer idea after the upcoming Israeli election.
China’s recent moves to claim territory in the East and South China Seas has raised concerns in all of its neighbors. The specter of Chinese naval control over such a wide area would be a significant shift in the balance of power. The Diplomat has published an essay on the implications of “Lake Beijing.”
Salon has run a very thought-provoking article with the title,”The War on Female Sexuality: Is Globalization to Blame?” It is a well-argued piece that makes some really intense points. I am certain that it will serve as a starting point for many debates in the future. I look forward to the rebuttals.
Syrian President Assad made a rare public address to the Syrian people in which he blamed the rebellion on “puppets” of outside powers. The speech gave no ground to the rebels and was immediately rejected by them. The speech, however, does indicate that Assad has no intention of stepping down which means that the violence in Syria will only deepen and get worse.
I continue to worry about the rising tide of right-wing sentiment in the world. This story in Foreign Policy suggests that the young people of Italy are becoming attracted by the history associated with the rule of the fascist, Mussolini. As Silvio Berlusconi mulls over whether he will run for office again, this idea is quite chilling as Berlusconi in many respects if the heir to Mussolini’s ideas.
Over the last three weeks violence has broken out in the Central African Republic. The country has experienced outbreaks of violence over the last 15 years of rather severe violence. The rebel groups are a coalition of disaffected groups that have organized under the Seleka alliance suggesting that the current violence may be more organized than in the past. The CAR is a very poor country–62% of the population lives beneath the poverty line. Other African countries are trying to broker a cease-fire, and we will have to see how effective these efforts can be.
Charles Emmerson has published a provocative essay in foreign policy, comparing the world in 1913 to the world in 2013. The byline of the essay reads: “Why 2013 eerily looks like the world of 1913, on the cusp of the Great War.” There are some astonishing parallels to the two time periods, enough to creep anyone out. Obviously, the comparison is overstated, but we study history so that we can better understand whatever patterns we discern in our contemporary lives. History doesn’t teach lessons, but it does provide some remarkable insights.
Japan’s new government under Shinzo Abe is taking a sharp nationalist turn. His new cabinet is full of individuals who would like the Japanese constitution to be revised so that Japan can build a more assertive military. The action is in response to China’s military moves, but is obviously part of the security dilemma cycle: all of Japan’s neighbors cannot help but be nervous about the changes and will likely respond in similar fashion.
There are few solid estimates of the effectiveness of the sanctions against Iran. It seems clear that inflation has risen substantially because of the sanctions, but there is little evidence that the Iranian regime is changing its nuclear policy. However, there is increasing evidence that the US is having a very difficult time persuading its allies, notably Turkey and Pakistan, to adhere to the sanctions. If true, then the sanctions will only weaken over time.
The President of Argentina, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, published a letter written to British Prime Minister, David Cameron, protesting British control of the contested Falklands/Malvinas Islands. Publishing letters is not standard diplomatic activity, and Cameron was quick to respond. The two countries fought a war over the islands in the 1980s, and the issue has been moved to the front burner in Argentina as Kirchner’s popularity has declined due to economic turmoil. Whether hostilities will erupt again remains to be seen.
The aggregate net worth of the 100 richest people on the planet was $1.9 trillion in 2012. It was a great year for the super wealthy. Ordinary Greeks, on the other hand, have bee reduced to a barter economy.
The UN has released new estimates of the number of people killed in the Syrian civil war which are considerably higher than previous ones: 60,000. The number does not break down how many have been killed by the Syrian government or by the rebels, but there is little question that the Syrian military has been especially brutal in the last few months. Unfortunately, the UN did not, at the same time, announce any new initiatives to stop the violence.
Early in 2012, the US Congress passed a new law, entitled “The Countering Iran in the Western Hemisphere Act.” The law is supposed to address the growing influence of Iran in South and Central America, although there are no real substantive or tangible measures identified in the bill. Needless to say, Iran does not think kindly of the law, nor does it seem to have much support elsewhere in the world.
One of the predicted consequences of globalization is a certain degree of homogenization in values leading to the growth of a truly global civil society. Whether this outcome will, in fact, come about is highly contested. Here is an essay that suggests that the convergence of global values is truly happening.
World Politics News 