North Korea has issued some of the most bellicose rhetoric against the US that we’ve heard in years, asserting that its nuclear weapons and missile tests are targeted against the US. The rhetoric followed the issuance of new sanctions against the North Korean weapons program. It’s difficult to assess how serious the threats are, but they were convincing enough to provoke the Chinese to condemn the North Korean rhetoric.
The economic situation in several European states is dire, and perhaps the country suffering the most from the economic recession is Spain. It is difficult to imagine the economic hardships the Spanish people are enduring, but The Atlantic has a short piece that gives some perspective on how desperate the situation is. Some of the Spanish statistics are significantly worse than those of the Great Depression.
The French intervention in Mali seems to have stemmed the immediate threat of the extremists, but such interventions are always difficult over time. The French have had some experience with such interventions in the past (Algeria, 1954; Vietnam, 1954), and none of those cases worked out well for the French. There may be some special circumstances in Mali that may favor the French intervention, but it’s hard to see a success if the intervention lasts a long time.
Things are often not what they appear to be in world politics. Over the past few days I have been posting brief snippets of information about the French intervention in Mali and the spillover of that operation into Algeria. I never suspected that there was any US involvement in Mali. A financial blog, however, named Zero Hedge, has unearthed some information which raises some questions about US operations in Mali. The blog references articles in Bloomberg and The Washington Post, both highly reputable news organizations. The inferences from that information, however, is all speculation. I will try to follow this trail and see if I can find any corroborating sources. In the meantime, we should keep a closer eye on Mali.
Preliminary results from the Israeli election suggest that Prime Minister Netanyahu will win a third term. But the actual likely coalitions in the Parliament are cloudy. Some early reports suggest that Netanyahu’s party will actually lose a considerable number of seats in the Knesset to both more centrist and more rightist parties. We will have more solid information over the next few days, but it seems as if Israel’s foreign policy could become more hawkish over the next few months.
The South China Sea is potentially a huge oil reserve, but there are six countries that claim parts of the sea as part of their national territory. The contested claims have led to several naval engagements over the last few years, and the Philippines has decided to bring China to court. In this case, the court is a tribunal set up under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). It is not clear that China will allow itself to be judged by the tribunal–its response to the case will be interesting to analyze.
The global economic slowdown is having an effect on unemployment in the world. Unemployment rates seem to be increasing in virtually every region of the world. It is hard to figure out when economic activity might pick up given the absence of any increase in demand. Somehow the governments of the world have to figure out how to break this downward cycle.
The Council on Foreign Relations has published a very nice essay on UN rules and the possibilities for humanitarian intervention in Syria. It is a very good backgrounder on a very controversial and complicated issue.
Foreign Policy has published an article on how the settlement movement has affected Israeli politics. The domestic forces in favor of a two-state solution are clearly losing power in Israeli politics and the rise of those who wish to annex the Occupied Territories is quite dramatic. We will know how powerful this movement has become as we get the results of the election tomorrow.
In what can only be described as an unfortunate choice of words, the French Defense Minister asserted that France would accept nothing less than the “total reconquest” of Mali from Islamic extremists. The French intervention in the former French colony of Mali was designed to stop the spread of al-Qaeda in Mali, and has led to the hostage crisis in the former French colony of Algeria. We still have very little solid information about the hostage crisis, but some of the confused reports suggest that the death toll from the rescue attempt was very high.
The territorial conflict between China and Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands has escalated from the sea to the air, a riskier form of challenge. The US has also been insinuated into the conflict by the Chinese belief that the US is siding with Japan (a true assessment of the American position). It is probably impossible for the US not to side with Japan, but the Chinese know this alliance is rather fixed; the Chinese would be better off insulating the conflict from American interests by pointedly ignoring the US.
Oxfam has issued a report that suggests that the combined wealth of the 100 richest individuals in the world ($240 billion) would be more than enough to end global poverty four times over. The headline is certainly provocative (and in absolute terms, true), but the real issue is the extraordinary degree of income inequality in the world. How long this economic inequality can persist without leading to political unrest is unknown.
Income inequality is trending to be the distinctive feature of the modern globalized economy. This development suggests that the traditional division of the world into rich and poor countries is misleading; the true division is between rich and poor people regardless of where they live. This shift is incredibly important because it creates more possibilities for effective action than has been true in the past. But recognition of the shift is slow-coming.
Israel’s election is scheduled for 22 January. There are 120 seats open in the Israeli Knesset (Parliament) and there are 34 political parties competing in the election. Right now it appears as if Prime Minister Netanyahu will retain his position, but the number of possibilities for coalitions is huge. We’ll see how the election turns out in a few days.
The Algerian hostage situation remains murky. The estimates for the number of hostages ranges from 150 to 600 and the number dead in the Algerian counterattack is unknown. The situation seems to have mobilize the radical elements in North Africa and there certainly will be additional repercussions.
The situation in Mali has escalated into a more global situation as militants have taken Americans and other Westerners hostage in Algeria in retribution for the French assault in Bamako. The Obama Administration had expressed great concern over the French action and it appears as if its fears have been realized.
The World bank has just released its projections for the global economy in 2013 and its estimates are somewhat gloomy. The Bank believes that economic growth will slow, largely because of slower economic growth in the developed world. The Bank is particularly concerned about a possible economic slowdown in Europe which would have ripple effects all over the world.
Beijing pollution has been a concern for a number of years, but the situation seems to be getting worse, not better. Some of the more recent measurements of air pollution in Beijing are, quite literally, off the charts.
Ever since the overthrow of Qaddafi in Libya, violence has disrupted Malian politics. Some of the violence stems from the discontent of the Tuaregs; some of it stems from organized al-Qaeda related groups. France has intervened to prevent these latter groups from seizing power in Mali. One hopes that neighboring African states could be persuaded to support this effort so that it can gain greater legitimacy.
The democratization process occurring within Burma (Myanmar) has been one of the most positive developments of the decade. Interestingly, the process has also moved Burma closer to the orbit of liberal states, reducing the Chinese influence in the state. The shift in allegiances poses a serious change in the balance of power in Southeast and East Asia.
The Pakistani Supreme Court has ordered the arrest of Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf. Some regard the move as a disguised military coup and it has thrown the country into chaos. Pakistan continues to have troubled governance, and it is unclear how this storm will be weathered.
The National Climate Assessment was recently released–a 1000 page document written with the assistance of over 300 scientists in the US. Its conclusions are quite grim, and asserts that climate change is already dramatically affecting the US. The report is supposed to form the basis for appropriate policy action–we’ll see if any are forthcoming.
Recent Chinese economic growth is undeniably one of the most extraordinary achievements in human history. There are signs, however, that the Chinese are not immune to the curse of income inequality. Accurate data are difficult to find, but the best estimates suggest that China may be moving into the role of the most unequal countries in all of Asia. It, like many Western countries, need to address this problem before it turns into a serious political problem.
The confirmation hearings for the US Secretaries of State and Defense will occasion a debate on America’s role in future world affairs. E.J. Dionne,a writer for the Washington Post, has an interesting piece on the issue.
Greek unemployment levels have reached historic highs. The austerity program imposed on Greece has succeeded in reducing the budget deficit to a certain degree, but the human price of that success has been extraordinary, particularly on the 17-24 age bracket. It remains to be seen whether economic growth will return to Greece any time soon.
Violence between India and Pakistan over the disputed territory of Kashmir is slowly accelerating. Relations have been improving between the two states for the last few months, so this recent outbreak of hostilities is difficult to interpret. We’ll have to watch whether this crisis has the potential to explode.
2012 is likely to be the hottest year on record. Meteorologists in Australia have had to develop new colors for their temperature codes to include temperatures over 50 degrees C. The four hottest temperatures ever recorded in Australian history were in 2012 and wildfires are ravaging the continent. The evidence for climate change continues to mount even though the direct links cannot yet be conclusively drawn.
The political situation in Venezuela has become quite murky. President Chavez, who recently won re-election, is quite sick and his inauguration has been postponed. The rules of succession are not crystal clear under such circumstances, and the Vice-President claims to be “holding” the office until Chavez’s health concerns are resolved. One could easily imagine turmoil in the country is Chavez’s illness leaves him incapacitated for an extended period of time. The US is likely hoping for a change in government.
There have been small but persistent protests in China over censorship of the newspaper, Southern Weekend. The protests are notable because the language in defense of free speech in China has been quite direct and explicit. The protesters are taking their position in open confrontation to the government which has yet to respond in any direct manner. We’ll have to see whether the protests grow larger over the next few days.
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