There is an emerging “currency war” in the global economy. We have feared this development since the slowdown in various economies in 2008-09. Different nations have tried various strategies to stimulate their economies, and most of their efforts have failed. One sure-fire way to stimulate exports is to devalue one’s currency: as the value of the currency declines, a state’s exports become cheaper and global demand for those exports will pick up, stimulating the economy. The problem with this strategy is that other states will then try the same thing, and everyone ends up with a weaker currency and the demand for exports will then settle down at the stagnant level. Japan is furiously trying to devalue its currency (the Yen has declined by 20% in the last few weeks) and today Venezuela announced that it will devalue its currency. The last time we saw a global currency war was during the Great Depression, and the consequences of the war was a significantly weakened global economy.
The Irish response to the financial crisis was to accept harsh austerity programs with very little dissent. Other countries, like Italy, Spain, and Greece, have witnessed large protests. It now appears, however, that Irish patience is wearing thin. Large protests have occurred and the Irish people are demanding a return to economic stimulus. Whether the government has the will to follow this path remains to be seen.
The drone controversy continues, and the debate outside of the US is quite one-sided (I imagine that will change as other nations develop their own drone technology). The British press has been particularly harsh on the Obama Administration’s policy. The Guardian, a solid lefty newspaper, published an op-ed piece on the policy from the perspective of the laws of war.
The Energy Information Agency has published a very comprehensive review of the strategic and economic significance of the South China Sea. It is a superb overview of the issues affecting the area. Given that the likelihood of conflict in the region is very high, the information is useful to understand the stakes involved.
Protests in Tunisia are continuing after the assassination of Chokri Belaid, an opposition leader. Many blame the Islamist-led government for the killing, an accusation that is adamantly denied by the government. The Arab Spring began in Tunisia two years ago, but it has unfolded very unevenly since then. Renewed protests in Tunisia and Egypt threaten to unsettle the process toward greater stability in the Arab world.
There has been a steady drumbeat in American society about whether the high unemployment rate among recent college graduates is due to the fact that colleges are not teaching the necessary employment skills. This argument is scurrilous and insidious. College majors have not changed very much in the 37 years I have been teaching, and for most of those years students have not had a difficult time finding jobs. What has changed is the desire of employers to actually hire. The Atlantic gives a very graphic demonstration of the change.
The release of the drone report justifying the use of drones in war has generated an incredible conversation. Jeffrey Rosen in the New Republic has written a powerful essay arguing that the use of drones in a manner consistent with the memo is clearly unconstitutional.
Max Boot, a noted neoconservative, has written an article in Foreign Affairs on irregular warfare. The purpose of the essay is to place guerrilla war in the more normal context of war as traditionally understood. Most analysts don’t make the distinction, but the lack of attention is probably due to lack of rigor. Boot’s is a controversial proposition and as you read the essay you should ask questions about the possible political consequences of such a redefinition.
There is an emerging discussion in the global economy about whether economic growth will return any time soon. There are a number of economists who believe that the prospects for economic growth are very limited for the foreseeable future. If true, that possibility has very dramatic political and social consequences. I’ll try to follow up with similar articles in the future.
The Open Society Foundation has published a new report, “Globalizing Torture: CIA Secret Detention and Extraordinary Rendition,” which is the most detailed study of the interrogation program of the US during the Bush Administration. It focused on the process of “extraordinary rendition” which is the euphemism used to describe the program of kidnapping suspects and torturing them in other countries (54 identified in the report) because the torture would have been illegal on American soil. It is a very sordid story, but the report is the first relatively comprehensive understanding of this long-secret program.
The process of globalization has led to one of the most extraordinary economic booms of human history. The price of this boom, however, is the extraordinary stress we are putting on the global environment. The economist, Jeffrey Sachs, suggests that we are pushing far beyond the safe limits of what the global environment can support.
In 2011 Iran claimed to have shot down an American drone, a top-of-the-line RQ-170. At the time, the US was quite embarrassed but flatly asserted that the Iranians could never decrypt the software in the drone. Today, the Iranians posted to YouTube what they allege is the video from the drone. If the video is genuine, then the Iranians have proven that they are adept at cracking the US software. Here is the video–the comments section is interesting.
Japan has accused China of turning on it weapons radar on a Japanese ship near the disputed islands of Diaoyu/Senkaku. Such a move is highly provocative since it leaves the targeted ship with few options: sit idly or initiate self-defense procedures. The last thing states should want is for its sailors to have to make spit second decisions in a volatile political atmosphere. The Chinese have not responded to the charges at the time of this posting.
NBC News has published a leaked document that establishes the legal authority of an American President to authorize the killing of American citizens with drone attacks. It is a remarkable brief that justifies the execution of an American citizen without the normal due process of law. One should decide whether the circumstances are sufficiently unique to justify the clear constitutional provisions for due process.
The US Justice Department has signaled its intention to prosecute Standard & Poor’s, a credit rating agency, for publishing misleading assessments of the creditworthiness of various stocks issued by investment banks and others in the credit crisis of 2007-08. The ratings agencies have long held that their ratings were “opinions” and therefore protected by the First Amendment. Many feel, however, that the rating agencies were in fact making a judgment in their ratings that constituted more than simple “opinions.” We’ll see how the process plays out–it will be a long one (after all, it has taken 5 years for even this step to be taken).
Political violence is escalating in Greece, as the economic situation in Greece continues to deteriorate. The violence is occurring at both ends of the political spectrum, but it is well-organized by the far-right party, Golden Dawn. The organization of the right wing is reminiscent of the rise of fascism in the 1920s and 30s in Europe, and the sources of the violence–economic stagnation–are pretty much the same. Let’s hope the outcome is not the same.
The Obama Administration has given itself the legal authority to launch pre-emptive cyberattacks on another country or entity if it believes that it might be the victim of such an attack. Similar authority was granted in the case of nuclear war in the 1950s, and the basis for the authority is the Commander-in-Chief status of the President. It’s not clear what provoked the new authority, but comparing cyberattacks to nuclear attacks is a bit far-fetched.
The balance of power in Asia has shifted dramatically in recent years, but the difficulty in using the balance of power is that there is no way to determine the “proper” balance. Every state actually wants an imbalance in its favor. But analysts need to override this selfish interest and determine want the most stable balance might be–a very difficult task.
The Israelis have taken responsibility for the air strike in Syria. The admission is unusual for the Israelis since they try to keep a very low profile in military and intelligence matters. The openness is clearly a signal to the Iranians, essentially telling them that similar strikes could be made against Iranian territory as well. We have also found out that the strike was not simply against an arms convoy, but also targeted a military research center. The stakes for the strike are getting higher.
The North Koreans are dropping broader hints that their third nuclear test is imminent. The increased rhetoric is in response to the new set of UN sanctions against the North Korean regime. The report details the facilities at which the tests are being developed–the intelligence community is obviously keeping a very close eye on everything going on in North Korea. What is not clear, however, is how the international community would respond to the test–the Chinese still seem to be very committed to propping up the regime in Pyongyang.
The US is trying to restart negotiations with the Afghan Taliban as the date for the 2014 withdrawal of American troops grows nearer. The US does not wish to be perceived as leaving the Afghan government in the lurch, and negotiations would be a face-saving way to demonstrate a commitment to a stable situation in Afghanistan. The intentions of the US are hardly noble, but one cannot help but wish that the negotiations will take place. The Afghan people have clearly suffered for a very long time and they deserve a better future.
There has been some movement among the outside powers to the Syrian civil war. The Syrian opposition has met with both Russia and Iran, and US Vice President Biden also met with the opposition. There are few tangible signs of change, but the simple fact that negotiations are taking place is an important step. Generally speaking, supporters of the “losing” side rarely open negotiations (and virtually everyone believes that President Assad is, in fact, losing) except to try to find some face-saving exit routes. We’ll keep an eye on developments. On another front, Turkey made a somewhat bizarre statement excoriating President Assad for not responding to the Israeli attack on Syrian soil. What makes the statement so strange is that Turkey has been in the forefront of opposition to Assad–why exhort an enemy to attack another enemy?
PBS has made a video on one of the newest developments in drone technology–the ability to process videos so precise that you can see people waving their arms and walking around from a camera three miles in the air. The technology is truly breathtaking and frightening: the oversight capability would probably amaze Big Brother (and it clearly signals the end of skinny-dipping).
For an insight into how a contemporary realist thinks about foreign policy, one could hardly do better than to read Stephen Walt. One of his blogs is particularly revealing and delightful.
The US is accusing Iran of aiding Syria’s government in the civil war. The charge is likely quite true, but the rhetoric follows on the heels of the Israeli attack on Syria indicating that the stakes in Syria are escalating for outside powers. The slow but sure insertion of outside interests in the civil war continues to match the escalating violence within Syria. Such a mix is almost invariably dangerous.
Secretary of State Clinton gave one of her final speeches to the Council on Foreign Relations yesterday and the transcript of the speech has been published. It is definitely worth reading. Secretary Clinton accomplished a great deal during her tenure–perhaps her single most important breakthrough was in opening up Burma–but much of what she accomplished was basic, necessary, and not very visible. In short, she did her job just as it should be done. She will be regarded as one of the nation’s great Secretaries of State.
The Israeli airstrike against the weapons convoy was actually on Syrian soil, not Lebanese soil as I indicated yesterday–such news is always difficult to corroborate quickly. But the Syrian and Iranian response has been swift, although it is difficult to see how either can retaliate. Since the weapons were most likely headed for Hezbollah in Lebanon, it is more likely that it will take the retaliatory action. Israel has already moved some of its anti-missile systems (the Iron Dome) into northern parts of Israel to prepare for any missile strikes from Hezbollah.
The steady deterioration of air quality in China has led to many Chinese people questioning whether the pursuit of economic growth should be limited in order to protect the environment. The debate is interesting, since it seems as if the Chinese are willing to ask a central question about their futures that many Western countries did not ask initially when confronted with similar environmental concerns. I suspect that the debate, while a healthy recognition of the tradeoffs in policy, will be resolved in favor of the environment unless concern over the environment becomes as politically potent as concern over the benefits of higher incomes.
We should be aware of growing protests in Europe as the economies of several countries continue to slow down under the austerity programs. Greece, in particular, is going to go through a spate of strikes which will disrupt its economy. Some of these protests are going to affect vital services in Greece and the reaction of the public to the strikes will give us a good idea of how much longer the Greek people are willing to endure the IMF and European Bank strictures.
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