El Pais one of the leading newspapers in Spain ran an article detailing the last 1000 days of the economic problems in Spain. There are many details in the article about which I was unaware, such as the central role of the former head of the central bank of Spain in implementing an austerity program in his newer role as a member of the EUropean Central Bank–in other words, he was able to accomplish a policy from an international position that he was unable to implement from a national position. The most sobering paragraph reads as follows: “Novelist and essayist Antonio Muñoz Molina warns in a recent piece entitled Todo lo que era sólido (or, All that once was solid) that it is not possible to reduce spending on education and health, legal aid and emergency services indefinitely without destroying society as we know it. Beyond a certain point, there is no return. Things deteriorate little by little, and then suddenly, one day, instead of continuing along lines that we have grown used to, the whole thing collapses, without transition, in the same way that a house that seemed to be an eternal ruin collapses overnight.”
The conclusion is also echoed in one of the leading newspapers in Greece.
The Bretton Woods system (the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization) was created in 1944 and the system oversaw a truly historic increase in economic activity. However, the world today is radically different from the one in 1944 and many have argued that the system needs to be overhauled. The Council on Foreign Relations has published an essay advocating some changes it believes are necessary.
The new Italian coalition government led by Enrico Letta faced large protests against the austerity policies of the government. The government is based on a shaky coalition between the center-right and center-left parties due to the refusal of the Five Star Movement led by Beppe Grillo to join any coalition government. Polls indicate that the new government has very weak support and the protests could lead to a failed government–a move that would shock the European markets. Prime Minister Letta has few options since it is unlikely that the EU and the IMF would balk against any stimulus moves. It is more than likely that no one will challenge the new government simply out of fear of precipitating a collapse.
Zahra Shahid Hussain, a leading supporter of Pakistani Presidential candidate Imran Khan, was assassinated in Karachi. The killing took place in the context of a re-vote in the city due to irregularities in the vote last week. Hussain was a very vocal supporter of Khan and she was a powerful member of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) party. Her death will further unsettle an already volatile situation.
The Atlantic published a conversation among Eric Schmidt, Jared Cohen, and Steve Clemons on the internet’s role in transforming world politics. The conversation was grim, with the discussants raising the possibility that the internet might actually lead to greater divisions within the global culture due to the power of governments to manipulate information. That possibility flies in the face of what we once expected: that the internet would limit the power of states. I recommend the conversation–it is stimulating, thoughtful, and well-informed.
Violence against Iraqi Sunnis has reached very high levels, as it appears as if the political situation in the country is rapidly deteriorating. The Sunnis, once the dominant political group under both British imperial rule and the Saddam Hussein regime, are chafing under the rule of the Shias even though the Shia account for 60% of the population. The Iraqi government has been working more closely with the Iranian government, and the Sunni see very little chance of being accorded full legitimacy under the current government. Hope for a fully democratic Iraq seems to be rapidly fading.
Even though the world just broke through the 400 parts per million barrier of Carbon Dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, it does not appear as if governments are taking the threat of clikmate change very seriously. Great Britain just drastically reduced the size of the government staff responsible for helping the people of Great Britain adapt to climate change. It seems as if the office responsible for making the adaptations was “spooking” investors. The budget crisis in the UK is also responsible for the staff reductions.
Michael Walzer is one of the most thoughtful scholars in the field of international ethics. He has written a very sobering essay on the situation in Syria. It does not really offer a solution, but does offer a way to think about a possible solution to the tragedy.
The Israeli government has approved the building of four more settlements in the Occupied Territories. The decision is highly controversial since building settlements in occupied territory is a clear violation of international law, and the consistent position of the US is that the settlements are not legal. Nonetheless, the Israeli government is proceeding despite the scheduled visit of US Secretary of State Kerry and his stated preference for restarting negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.
Max Fisher of the Washington Post has written an interesting essay on racial tolerance in the world. Using data from the World Values Survey, Fisher made some heroic assumptions about the interpretation of one of the questions in the survey. His findings are displayed visually, and they raise some fascinating questions about what we mean when we talk about racial intolerance.
The campaign against female genital mutilation has scored an impressive breakthrough in Niger, as thousands of individuals in the country took vows to end the practice and to stop child marriages. The practice has been illegal in Niger for many years, but it has been difficult to end. The public ceremonies can go a long way in changing attitudes toward the practice, but the public vows need to be backed up with positive social and economic reforms as well.
One of the first attempts at cyberwarfare was a computer virus named Stuxnet that was used to disrupt the centrifuges used to enrich uranium in Iran. The US and Israel are widely reputed to have launched the virus, and the initial reports were that the virus did in fact cause the centrifuges to malfunction. A new report, however, suggests that the long-term effects of the attack were negligible. Shortly after the attack, Iran increased its production of enriched uranium and proceeded more cautiously by obtaining newer centrifuges.
The eurozone countries have entered into the longest economic slowdown in the history of the group. Even Germany was not able to lift the group into positive economic growth since its quarterly economic growth was only 0.1%. The slowdown is even worse than the one suffered after the economic crisis of 2008-09. The news is not only bad for the heavily indebted countries in the group, but it is also bad news for the rest of the world. Europe is, for example, the largest purchaser of Chinese exports.
The OECD released a report indicating that the gap between rich and poor in the rich countries has grown more in the last three years than in the previous 12 years. The income inequality seems to be accelerating because of the austerity policies being pursued by many of the rich countries.
The Carnegie Endowment has published a very good assessment of the current situation in Syria. The bottom line of the analysis is that Russia’s policies towards the world and the region are the key to any resolution of the civil war. Russian interests have, over time, solidified in favor of protecting the Assad regime, but that policy is gradually losing credibility and respect. Whether the other members of the UN Security Council can persuade Russia to change its policy vis-a-vis Assad is the critical question.
Paul Krugman has been relentless in his critique of the austerity policies being pursued by many governments and international organizations. His analysis is firmly rooted in statistics and he frankly acknowledges his own bias as a Keynesian who believes that governments should stimulate an economy that is depressed. He has written a very comprehensive review of several books that have recently been published on the austerity/stimulus debate. It is a long essay, but I highly recommend it.
The democratization of Burma is truly a significant event–the end of military rule in the country was one of the most important events in the last few years. Unfortunately, the Muslim minority–known as the Royinghas–has not enjoyed the new freedom. Instead, the persecution of the Muslims in the country has significantly increased.
Sorry for missing a day. I was giving a speech to the MHC Alumnae Club in Houston. A wonderful, and very gracious group. But it was a long trip–the airlines are currently being led by Torquemada.
The Pew Foundation ran a poll in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland and the Czech Republic which was conducted from March 2 to March 27, 2013. The poll asked questions about the economic situation in Europe and the prospects for the European Union. Needless to say, there was a high degree of gloom among some of the states, and some of the results show real problems for the Union’s future. THe one outlier in the poll was Germany, but that’s no surprise since most of the economic issues reflect some of the special strengths of the German economy.
Labor unrest in the textile industry in Bangladesh has dramatically increased after the tragedy at Rana Plaza in which over 1,100 garment workers died. The Bangladeshi textile industry is one of the largest in the world, but the conditions for the workers in the industry have been deplorable for many years. Finally, the world seems to be paying attention to the plight of the workers and the workers are demanding that their conditions be dramatically improved. The change is long overdue.
The Israeli-Palestinian dispute is clearly over land, but, in truth, the underlying concern over the land revolves around the access to water in the region. Understanding how difficult it is to parse out the land with underground aquifers is central to moving forward in the dispute. The ultimate resolution will involve much more than simple “land swaps” if the two parties ever get to that point.
Many authors talk about a period of American “decline” or “pullback” from the world. In many respects, the assessment is valid, particularly as far as the American public is concerned. But the US is still quite active: by one count, the US is fighting or involved in fighting in 74 countries in the world at the present time. Most of these commitments are very small scale, but each has the possibility of burgeoning into something larger, simply by virtue of the fact that the US is involved. It is very difficult for the US to extricate itself from global commitments; picking and choosing the right ones seems to be the highest priority for US policymakers now.
Nawaz Sharif is claiming victory in the Pakistani elections. He was forced from office 14 years ago and sent into exile after a military coup so his comeback is extraordinary. His platform was largely based on ending drone strikes by the US in Pakistani territory and a strong stand against terrorism. But the overwhelming concern of the Pakistani electorate was the sad state of the economy: unemployment is rising and electricity is sporadic in many areas of the country.
Time has released some amazing timelapse photography of changes to the earth over periods of decades. The photos were taken from space, and the timelapse photography shows how human beings have altered the environment, primarily in the search for energy. The images are beautiful, but also somewhat depressing. It is hard to believe that human activity can have such a decisive effect.
Welcome to the Miocene Era. CO2 concentrations have broken through the 400 parts per million that the earth last saw about 10 million years ago. What is remarkable about this milestone is that it took only about 100 years to reach these levels, whereas previous changes in CO2 concentrations took much longer periods of time. Whether life can adapt quickly enough to adjust to these changes remains to be seen.
A court in Guatemala has found former leader, Efrain Rios Montt, guilty of genocide. He was found guilty of ordering the killing of many from the Ixil Maya ethnic group during 1982 and 1983. This is the first time a national court has found a leader guilty of the crime of genocide, although international courts have reached the same verdict for other leaders. The finding is long overdue, and one can only hope that a process of reconciliation can begin in Guatemala.
There are reports that Russia is thinking about selling advanced anti-aircraft systems to the Syrian government. If true, the deployment of such systems would complicate any efforts on the part of the UN to intervene in Syria, since any intervention would require that the Syrian government be disarmed prior to the intervention. The speculation is that the recent Israeli air attacks on Syria have concerned President Assad and his principal supporter–Russia. The deployment would also signal the Russian determination to keep Assad in power, making the chance for outside intervention even slimmer.
There will be a national election in Pakistan on Saturday, a very important event marking the first peaceful transfer of power in the 66 years of Pakistani politics. The polls indicate that Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the opposition, is most likely to win the election, ending the rule of the Pakistani People’s Party. There has been violence associated with the campaigns, but it appears as if the election will be held and that its results should be considered legitimate. But at this stage the results are unpredictable.
The Guardian, a lefty newspaper in Britain, has been leading a very robust investigation into tax evasion and offshore tax shelters. It should be commended for its dogged work in this very secretive arena, and its efforts are beginning to have a real effect on tax evasion in Britain. The investigation has led to several changes in EU policy, and will be on the agenda for the upcoming G8 meeting. It is singularly unfortunate that none of the large media outlets in the United States has followed the lead of the Guardian .
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