The Federation of American Scientists has released a study of six possible scenarios of military and diplomatic actions designed to address the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons. The conclusions are interesting (the cost of a full invasion of Iran is estimated to cost $1.7 trillion), but what is more useful is the framing of the scenarios and how the authors set up the different possibilities. Many times we tend to think that there are only two solutions to a problem–it is important to construct as many different solutions as seem feasible.
At some point in the future it is likely that the world will experience a cyberwar–an attack on the computer systems of the infrastructure of a state. It is a difficult thing to do, but the expertise to carry out such an attack is growing steadily. What we don’t know is how robust the defenses against such an attack are since no state will ever outline such defenses beforehand, for obvious reasons. But in the case of a successful attack, the results could be devastating.
The German foreign intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst, has changed its assessment of the survival chances for Syrian President Assad. It now believes that Assad’s chances of surviving the rebellion are increasing. This news is especially bad for Western interests since it suggests that Russian and Iranian interests will be enhanced as a consequence. It also means that Hezbollah backed the right horse, which spells greater trouble for Israel. The assessment is important since the BND is highly regarded. But the situation in Syria remains exceptionally fluid.
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