Growing wealth inequality is probably the greatest threat to the stability of the human community right now. Branko Milanovic, one of the lead economists at the World Bank, has found “that the top 8% of global earners are drawing 50% of all of this planet’s income.” The inequality has been getting worse throughout the modern period, and seems to be an active and necessary part of the economic system created over the last 500 years. For a visual representation of the problem, you can watch the following video.
A new coronavirus has been circulating and it has medical experts concerned. The cases have been centered around Saudi Arabia, and it is especially deadly. It has killed 27 of 49 infected patients. The number of infected people remains very small, but the virus has a death rate considerably higher than the SARS virus in November 2002 (8000 infected people and a fatality rate of 10%). It does not appear to be spread by casual contact, but doctors are concerned because so little is known about how the disease is transmitted. As of now it has been designated as the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV).
The African Union has accused the International Criminal Court of choosing to prosecute only cases against African leaders. Indeed, of the eight cases before the ICC, all eight are in African countries. There are atrocities committed in every part of the world, so the accusation is accurate. But the accusation may be based on racial attitudes or it could be based on the relative weakness of the national courts in Africa. The statute of the ICC demands that accused individuals be tried in national courts, and the jurisdiction of the ICC only kicks in if the national courts are unwilling or unable to prosecute crimes against humanity. Indeed, the African Union has asked that the ICC charges currently pending against Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatte be transferred back to Kenyan courts. The ICC needs to address this issue if it is to achieve a high degree of legitimacy.
Russia is sending an advanced air-defense missile system to Syria. The sale had been scheduled for some time, but the EU and the US had persuaded Russia to delay delivery. The decision to send the missiles suggests that the Russians fear some sort of intervention by the Western states, most likely a no-fly zone over Syria. But it also suggests that the Russians believe that Assad must have a reasonable chance of surviving since they would be unlikely to anger the Western allies on a losing bet. The Russians, however, demonstrated that hypocrisy is still a fine art in world politics since, at the same time they announced the delivery of the missiles, they condemned the EU for not extending the arms embargo on Syria.
Foreign Policy has published anarticle by Alireza Nader on the Iranian nuclear issue. Nader makes a persuasive argument that a nuclear-armed Iran would not be as dangerous as many assume. The likelihood that Iran would act substantially differently from other nuclear powers is a difficult position to defend. Nuclear weapons have had the effect of making states act more cautiously than they might otherwise have acted.
The Washington Post has published an article outlining the degree of cyber-spying by China on advanced US weapoins systems. The article reports that the Chinese have hacked into the computer files detailing two dozen advanced weapons systems, including the F-35, the not-even-deployed fighter plane that is supposed to be the most advanced fighter plane ever built. It’s not clear how much information was stolen through the spying, but the report indicates that the US Department of Defense is concerned about the security lapse. One should not be surprised that such spying occurs–every state spies on every other state.
Jobs are hard to find everywhere in the world, even in countries with high rates of economic growth. China is encountering a serious problem finding enough jobs for its college graduates. Note, however, the curious contradiction in the article: not enough jobs, but serious overwork for those with jobs. Companies try to keep down labor costs as much as possible by not hiring workers, so the workload on those with jobs is intolerable. Over time the shortage of jobs is going to lead to serious political problems, if young people do not believe that the system offers opportunity.
An anti-Muslim march was held in London in response to the killing of a British soldier by a religious extremist. The march was organized by the English Defence League, a far right party. A spike in anti-Islamic incidents has been reported after the killing, and the British leadership has been singularly inept at dealing with the problem. The issue is the growth of extremism in Britain, not Islam, but the Prime Minister has not spoken out forcibly to the public making that distinction. It is precisely at times of great anguish and uneasiness that leaders need to step out in front of hysteria.
The European Union has decided not to extend the arms embargo on Syria. The decision frees EU states to send or sell weapons to the rebels in Syria, although it is not clear that any state has any plans to do so at present. It will be interesting to see which state decides to provide arms and what the precipitating event for that decision will be. The US is likely to keep its arms embargo intact for now. There might be a joint US-EU decision at some point in the future since it now appears as if President Assad has the upper hand in the civil war.
The Director of the Red Cross and Red Crescent is warning that unrest in Europe could increase because of the deteriorating economic situation. We have witnessed many protests against the austerity programs being implemented to reduce the debt levels of various governments. The effects of these programs have been significant in some countries. In Greece, for example, suicides have increased 26% from 2011-2012. The have been six self-immolations in Bulgaria.
Rockets have been fired from within Lebanon into Hezbollah strongholds, suggesting that Hezbollah’s open statement supporting Syrian President Assad has widened the war into Lebanon. The group launching the missiles has not been identified. While there have been cross-border attacks into Lebanon, the use of rockets is a major escalation in the violence. The commitment of the Lebanese government to not be involved in Syrian affairs is obvious, but its ability to avoid being dragged into the conflict is doubtful.
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, stated publicly that his forces would support Syrian President Assad, suggesting that Hezbollah is “fighting in Syria against Islamic extremists who pose a danger to Lebanon.” Recent fighting has been particularly fierce near the town of Qusair, near the border with Lebanon. The pledge confirms what we have known for some time, but it marks a clear escalation in the intervention of outside forces in the Syrian civil war. The next step will likely come from Israel.
US President Obama made one of his most important foreign policy speeches at the National Defense University in which he essentially ended the “global war on terror” launched by President George W. Bush. The declaration was long overdue, but is important to remember that President Obama is not an “antiwar” president. He reserved the right to use force against the enemies of the state, but he no longer believes that the US is threatened by a coordinated enemy (if he ever believed that high degree of threat from al-Qaeda). His speech in Norway when he received the Nobel Peace Prize was a vigorous defense of the Just War Doctrine.
There were a large number of protests all over the world against Monsanto, an American company closely tied to genetically modified food. There were protests in 436 cities, and the number of protesters was estimated in the millions. It has proven to be very difficult to evaluate the health effects of genetically modified foods since the US Congress effectively took the power to review those foods away from the US Food and Drug Agency. Many believe that the GMOs are disruptive and dangerous.
A few days ago, I noted that riots among Swedish youth were occurring. These riots have been continuing, and I have been able to find some information about the economic situation in Sweden that might explain the violence. It appears as if even Sweden, one of the most egalitarian societies in the world, has been experiencing growing income inequality along with the rest of the world. Globalization is the underlying cause of the inequality as money continues to flow to capital and away from labor.
About 500 scientists have issued a rather chilling document, titled “The Bonn Declaration,” which argues that by the middle of this century the world will be facing critical fresh water shortages. The four-day conference was organized by the Global Water System Project. The current mismanagement of water supplies is extraordinary, and it is safe to say that there really is no substitute for fresh water. With 9 billion people expected by 2042, the present stress on fresh water will only get worse.
The Federation of American Scientists has released a study of six possible scenarios of military and diplomatic actions designed to address the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons. The conclusions are interesting (the cost of a full invasion of Iran is estimated to cost $1.7 trillion), but what is more useful is the framing of the scenarios and how the authors set up the different possibilities. Many times we tend to think that there are only two solutions to a problem–it is important to construct as many different solutions as seem feasible.
At some point in the future it is likely that the world will experience a cyberwar–an attack on the computer systems of the infrastructure of a state. It is a difficult thing to do, but the expertise to carry out such an attack is growing steadily. What we don’t know is how robust the defenses against such an attack are since no state will ever outline such defenses beforehand, for obvious reasons. But in the case of a successful attack, the results could be devastating.
The German foreign intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst, has changed its assessment of the survival chances for Syrian President Assad. It now believes that Assad’s chances of surviving the rebellion are increasing. This news is especially bad for Western interests since it suggests that Russian and Iranian interests will be enhanced as a consequence. It also means that Hezbollah backed the right horse, which spells greater trouble for Israel. The assessment is important since the BND is highly regarded. But the situation in Syria remains exceptionally fluid.
The US has now admitted that four American citizens have been killed abroad by drone attacks. Three of those four were not “specifically” targets of the attacks. It is unclear what that means. Most likely, they were close to the attack on the actual target, Anwar al-Awlaki, an American citizen living in Yemen who was inciting violent acts against the US. Attorney General Holder released a letter (which you can read here) which outlined the reasons why Awlaki was killed. The charges against Awlaki are indeed nasty, but it is important to remember that we have no evidence whatsoever that the charges are true or accurate. The charges are findings agreed upon by “senior” US officials. The charges were never verified by the normal due processes guaranteed to every American citizen in the Constitution. We must be vigilant in demanding that these procedures are followed in all cases.
Chinese dissident, Ai Weiwei, has released a music video with the English title, “Dumbass,” which chronicles his 81-day detention in prison. You can view the video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ACj86DKfWs but there is no English translation. The video is apparently not available in China.
The latest country to experience youth protests that have turned violent is Sweden. The cause of the violence seems to be the same as in other countries that have experienced similar protests: joblessness and a lack of confidence in the politics of the country. Sadly, anti-immigrant sentiment also seems to be a factor in the riots. One wanted to hope that the Scandinavian states would avoid this bane, but it seems as if it affects many oof them, Finland and Denmark in particular.
One of the arguments commonly made in the austerity vs. stimulus debate is that cutting taxes, and not deficit spending, is the best way to stimulate economic growth. Cutting taxes almost invariably means austerity, but the supporters of tax cuts argue that the economic growth created by putting more money in the hands of investors is the best way to create jobs. Often, the argument is made without evidence–it is in fact an ideological position. I should hasten to add that some who support deficit spending also often argue from an ideological position–some kinds of spending will stimulate growth, but other kinds of spending will not. Bruce Bartlett, who was an economic adviser to Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush and is generally regarded as a supporter of the free market, uses a mountain of evidence to demonstrate that some kinds of tax cuts, specifically those implemented by President George W. Bush, did not create jobs.
Speaking of jobs, there is a very thought-provoking podcast on the job market in 2045. If you want to read the transcript, just click here.
Son of Drone? The US Defense Department is working on hypersonic cruise missiles (hypersonic is defined as at least five times the speed of sound at sea level). Test prototypes have reached speeds of Mach 20 which means that the US could virtually bomb any place on the planet before the enemy even knows that a missile has been fired. The plans are to deploy these missiles by 2025. Perhaps the US will work on the laws governing the use of these missiles before they are deployed and avoid the situation it is in now with respect to drone warfare: other nations are building their own drones and there are no agreed upon rules governing their use.
I doubt that many of the readers of this blog have heard of “Able Archer 83.” Able Archer was a military maneuver conducted by the US and its NATO allies in 1983 which the Soviet Union interpreted as a genuine prelude to war. The series of steps leading up to the crisis–the most serious US-Soviet confrontation since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962–show how flawed communication, bad rhetoric, and self-serving miscalculations can lead up to a crisis. The National Security Archive has published some recently declassified documents on the crisis, and provides a very succinct summary of the crisis.
The European Commission has carried out a series of “unannounced” inspections of the books of BP and Shell Oil. The Commission believes that the oil companies have colluded to rig oil prices for more than a decade. If true, the collusion mimics the behavior of the large banks in manipulating interest rates during the same period for which the banks were fined hundreds of millions of dollars. It is hard to believe that such profitable companies would resort to criminal behavior to enrich themselves even more. Barry Ritholz catalogs the significance of the charges and puts them in a context that will simply leave one breathless with indignation.
The economic situation in Europe continues to deteriorate, and the slowdown has seriously affected the younger population, aged 17-24. Many of the newspapers in Europe are now referring to the “lost generation” as a way to describe the bleak employment prospects of the group. The problem is not merely economic. The political effects of a generation losing hope in the future are always debilitating, and often they turn to “strong” men to lead them out of their predicament.
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