It seems as if there has been a radical reconsideration of the merits of austerity programs. The reconsideration is due to a number of factors: the seeming failure of the poloicies in restarting economic growth in EUrope as well as the realization that much of the intellectual justification for the policies (the Rogoff-Reinhardt hypothesis) was flawed. It doesn’t however, seem that support for the policies has really changed all that much. Thus, we are thinking about alternative explanations for the political attractiveness of the policies. Deborah Orr gives a chilling hypothesis in her op-ed piece in the Guardian: that the policies are actually designed to make the world much more comfortable for corporations who wish to reduce the size of government regardless of the social costs.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its compensation report for the first quarter of 2013 (January-March). It found that “Unit labor costs in nonfarm businesses fell 4.3 percent in the first quarter of 2013, the combined effect of a 3.8 percent decrease in hourly compensation and the 0.5 percent increase in productivity. The decline in hourly compensation is the largest in the series, which begins in 1947. ” Such a large reduction in real wages is exceptional, and suggests that, while corporations are indeed hiring, they are not offering high wage jobs. This deficiency will make economic growth more difficult. Ultimately, however, everyone pays for wages that are too low to cover the cost of living–those workers will receive government subsidies for food, education, and housing for which we all pay taxes.
Iran will hold its presidential election next week, and the leading candidates have very different positions on the question of Iran’s nuclear program. In some sense, the election will offer a small window on how Iranians think about the program. It is, however, a mistake to think that the nuclear program will be a high priority for most Iranians–like the US, elections in Iran are determined largely by local issues. Additionally, the nuclear enrichment issue is non-negotiable for Iran. The most the candidates can offer is a different degree of conciliation in the discussions with the West.
103 out of the 166 prisoners at Guantanamo are on a protracted hunger strike although one would never know if one were reading only the American media. Of these, 41 prisoners are being force-fed to keep them alive. The US does not use the phrase “force-fed”–rather, it describes the process as “enteral feeding.” Of course, the US does not describe these prisoners as “prisoners of war” either. Instead, to avoid invoking the Geneva Conventions on the humane treatment of prisoners, it calls them “unlawful enemy combatants.” The treatment of these human beings–who have no charges against them nor do they have any prescribed procedures to determine their guilt or innocence–is a profound national disgrace.
US President Obama has ordered the national security agencies to draw up a list of possible sites for cyber-attacks. The top secret document was leaked to The Guardian and it outlines the priorities of the US in a cyberwar and you can read the document here. The directive specifically contemplates offensive cyber-attacks and defines them as Offensive Cyber Effects Operations (OCEO). These types of operations are specifically designed to cause damage to another state’s infrastructure, ostensibly to alter that state’s calculations of harming US national interests. With this directive, the US formally integrates cyberwarfare into the total matrix of US military actions.
And now for something completely different. It’s time to make our heads explode and try to answer the question, “Is Mathematics Real?”
It appears that, with the help of Hezbollah, the Syrian government has been able to retake the city of Qusair. The victory, however, raises the issue of widening the war into Lebanon as the Sunni-based rebels now have a greater fear of the Shia-based Hezbollah and its key ally, Iran. The news is depressing for the forces aiming to overthrow President Assad, but it also raises the danger of more outside powers becoming involved in the civil war.
Of the 8 million people that live in Israel, about 1.8 million are Israeli Arabs. Although Israel is a democracy, the relationship between Israeli Jews and non-Jews has grown increasingly uneasy. Arab Israelis face discrimination in a number of areas, and the number of violent actions against Israeli Arabs seems to be rising. It seems as if Israeli Arabs are being viewed as a dangerous “fifth column” in Israel. The Israeli government needs to address this growing problem if it wishes to retain its identity as a democratic state.
The US is far and away the largest emitter of carbon into the atmosphere. Although it has made some progress in reducing carbon emissions and although other countries, such as China, are catching up, the US is not in any danger of losing its crucial role in the process of climate change. The following chart gives clear evidence for this unfortunate ranking.
The IMF has determined that its austerity program for Greece was too harsh and has actually made it more difficult for Greece to repay its debts. Its internal deliberations confirm what many outsiders have long held to be true. Austerity programs force internal devaluations of wages and prices, and such movements are designed to make countries more competitive. But it is easy to overestimate the degree to which countries can more effectively compete in the global marketplace if their exported products are not really in great demand (in Greece’s case, its main exports are agricultural products). It is not clear how this might affect the Greek economy, or whether the IMF can offer some compensatory action. The Greeks have suffered greatly and have very little to show for it.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will be visiting the US later on this week, and President Obama has said little about specific topics to be discussed. The visit is more likely considered a chance for Presidents Xi and Obama to establish some sort of personal rapport. Stephen Walt offers an insightful analysis of what we can expect from the upcoming summit meeting.
One of the interesting question in world politics is the extent to which there are common values underpinning a global civic society. The Pew Foundation has issued a study on global attitudes toward homosexuality, asking questions to people in 39 countries. It is a fascinating study that indicates that there are wide divergences in global society on the question of the acceptability of homosexuality. There does not appear at this time to be a common view on the question of homosexuality.
The stakes in the Syrian conflict continue to escalate. France says it has proof that President Assad’s forces used Sarin gas, a clear violation of the laws of war. The US has sent the Patriot anti-missile system and F-15s to Jordan, countering the extension of anti-aircraft systems by Russia to President Assad. Meanwhile, the intense battle over the city of Qusair places thousands of civilians in serious jeopardy.
The protests in Turkey have been violent, and the violence has been captured in a photograph that the world knows as “the lady in red.” The protesters have adopted the photograph as a symbol of the violence of the state. Business Insider has the background story to the lady in red.
Today is the 24th anniversary of the violent crackdown by Chinese officials on demonstrators in Tiananmen Square in Beijing. Discussion of the event is heavily censored in China, something I found out first hand when a BBC report on the event on the TV I was watching in Shanghai two years ago was blacked out. But the Chinese are highly inventive in trying to evade the censors and the discussions of the demonstrations continue, albeit in a truncated form.
The continuing protests in Turkey have begun to raise questions about the future of Prime Minister Erdogan. Not too long ago, he seemed to be quite powerful, and Turkey’s role in world affairs was getting more attention. The protests, however, have revealed that Erdogan’s position was far from impregnable. The clear theme of the protests is that Erdogan was becoming increasingly autocratic and that the secular basis of Turkish democracy was offended by the mildly religious tenor of the regime. Erdogan’s days seem increasingly numbered.
I’ve mentioned in several recent posts my concerns over the Syrian civil war spreading to other countries in the region. There is no inevitable way such expansion might occur, but the temptation for other sides to become involved is becoming quite intense. Patrick Cockburn gives a great analysis of why this fear is genuine in an essay in the London Review of Books. It is an essay with exceptional insights.
Protests in Spain, Portugal, and Germany (!) were staged yesterday. The protests were against the imposition of austerity measures that have led to the highest unemployment rate in European Union history. These protests should be viewed as highly related to the ongoing protests in Turkey. It’s beginning to look like it is going to be a long and hot summer.
More than 1,000 Iraqis were killed in sectarian violence last month, the highest rate since 2006-07. This violence is correlated to the ongoing power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran which is being played out in Syria. This Shia-Sunni split is not the cause of the violence, but it does draw the line between the strategic interests of the two countries. It is unfortunate that religion serves as the dividing line between fairly traditional balance of power interests.
It’s time to relax. This is a real-time video of the full moon rising in New Zealand (Mount Victoria Lookout in Wellington). The photographer says there is no digital manipulation of the film. It’s truly extraordinary. Your moment of cosmic mishegass.
One of the interesting dimensions of the debate over Iran’s nuclear program is the extent to which the media describe the issue. One could be forgiven if one were to believe that Iran has a nuclear weapons program given the words used by the media to describe Iranian activities. But a very careful analysis of all the hard evidence indicates that there is not sufficient reason to believe that Iran has a nuclear weapons program. In fact, all the hard evidence suggests that Iran has adhered closely to the provisions of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. One is left to conclude that either the media is not careful in its choice of words or that the media is serving as propaganda outlets to some states.
We noted a few days ago that a new SARS-like coronavirus (MERS-CoV), with a very high mortality rate, has been identified and located primarily in Saudi Arabia. Apparently, one of the medical doctors who worked with the virus sent a sample of the virus to researchers at a research lab, the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam. Erasmus subsequently filed what is known as a Material Transfer Agreement which “requires sample recipients to contractually agree not to develop products or share the sample without the permission of Erasmus.” An MTA is not a patent, but is a preliminary step to filing a patent, and has slowed down research on the virus. Privatization of medical research on urgent public health issues such as a life-threatening virus should not be allowed.
What started out as an environmental protest in Turkey quickly escalated into large-scale national protests. The initial protests were against changes to be made to Gezi Park in Taksim Square in Istanbul. But the protest tapped into widespread discontent with the rule of Prime Minister Erdogan and the 11-year rule of his Justice and Development Party (AKP). Many in Turkey believe that Erdogan has become increasingly authoritarian and new laws prohibiting certain sales of alcohol are viewed as a creeping form of Islamism infiltrating the secular constitution of Turkey.
Late-breaking news: the Russians have sent their only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, into the Mediterranean. The deployment is an unmistakable signal that the Russians are upping the ante in their support for Syrian President Assad. The next move it up to the US and the EU. With Turkey facing growing protests and the growing violence in Lebanon, it is safe to say that the situation is getting quite serious.
Andrew Bacevich is one of the more thoughtful critics of American foreign policy. He is an historian at Boston University and served in the US military (his son was killed in Iraq while serving). He has written a very interesting essay entitled “How We Name Our Wars Matters” which raises a number of thought-provoking issues.
The end of World War II in the Pacific Theater continues to be highly controversial. The American interpretation of the conclusion of the war is that the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki brought the Japanese to surrender on American terms. Others argue that the Japanese were already prepared to surrender. Yet another interpretation is that the threat of Soviet intervention in the war persuaded the Japanese to quit the war. Foreign Policy has a great article making the Soviet intervention argument.
Youth unemployment in Europe continues to rise, with Italy’s rate also breaking the 40% mark. The numbers of young people unemployed in Europe is truly staggering, and increasingly dangerous politically. Some are worried that this summer could see protests by those who have given up on the political and economic system to address their situation.
The US Census Bureau reports that about 15% of the American people live in poverty. That statistics seriously underestimates how many American families are living close to the financial edge. According to Paul Buchheit, “the IRS reports that the highest wage in the bottom half of earners is about $34,000. To be eligible for food assistance, a family can earn up to 130% of the federal poverty line, or about $30,000 for a family of four.”Income inequality in the United States has worsened more in the last three years than in the previous 12 years. The US Congress is considering making more budgets cuts in food, housing and education budgets than the richest 400 Americans made in the stock market investments last year. There is something seriously wrong with this situation.
Israel has announced that it is planning to build 1,000 new settler homes in mainly Arab areas of Jerusalem. The move comes as US Secretary of State Kerry is trying to restart the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. These settlements are illegal under international law, and the US has consistently spoken out against the building of new settlements. The Palestinian share of the West Bank continues to shrink at an astonishing rate.
China is rapidly increasing its military capabilities, and many in the US think that the military increases are threatening to American security. It is important to understand the basis for Chinese support for its military–comparing the US increases to Chinese increases leads to a distorted view. Much military spending has little to do with foreign threats–it is also driven by domestic political and economic considerations. Here’s an article that places the Chinese military development in a slightly different context.
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