The French have leaked a report detailing the scale of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal. If accurate, the stockpile is huge and capable of wide-spread dispersion. The arsenal itself is not surprising, given the long-term hostilities between Syria and Israel, but one cannot forget that these weapons are, in fact, illegal. We should all wait for the UN report on the attack for more specific details of the alleged atrocity. The UN has asked for an expedited report and it remains to be seen whether the report changes the Russian position on the matter.
As is the case with most crises, there is a larger issue that remains in the background. In the Syrian situation, the larger issue is the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Just as the use of chemical weapons is illegal, Iranian possession of a nuclear bomb would be illegal as long as Iran remains a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Thus, the willingness of the US to enforce international norms on illegal activity is under intense scrutiny by many observers. Perhaps the country most invested in this US role is Israel. If the Israelis believe that the US will not prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, then the Israelis will likely take steps to ensure that outcome on their own.
Tomorrow is Labor Day in the US (unlike the rest of the world which usually celebrates the role of labor on 1 May). The state of labor in the US, however, is not very good. The share of the GDP claimed by labor continues to go down, and the share that goes to capital keeps increasing.
President Obama surprised everyone today by deciding to wait for a declaration by the Congress on an attack against Syria. The decision was a surprise in light of the very strong statements yesterday by both Obama and Kerry. The decision, however, is a good one given the decision by the British House of Commons to not support a strike. It is unclear right now how the Congress will vote: some members of Congress do not believe that a strike is warranted; others believe that the strike does not go far enough. Russian President Putin has derided the position of the US and has strongly opposed any use of force against Assad. The same position has been taken by China.
The Atlantic has an article on the neuroscience of chemical weapons that might be of interest to many. Interestingly, it suggests that sarin gas is not always deadly (I had thought otherwise). Nonetheless, it remains a heinous weapon well-deserving of a universal ban.
Congress has declared war 11 times in US history, and it has authorized the use of force 11 times without declaring war formally. Of the latter category, 7 authorizations have occurred since 1955, and 8 of the formal declarations of war occurred in the 20th century (all of which were related to either World War I or II.
The White House has released a brief on the evidence it believes confirms that the Syrian government used chemical weapons against civilians. It does not supply any information that was not readily available in the media: specifically, it does not supply any information about press reports that the US government had intercepted a telephone call from the Syrian military ordering the use of chemical weapons. Presumably that information is being made available to others. President Obama made a statement that the US was only considering “limited, narrow options” in dealing with the Syrian atrocity. Secretary of State Kerry said that the US would not wait for the UN Inspectors report before making its own decision.
There are a number of perplexing issues in the flow of information today. First, in the brief highlighted above, we learn that US intelligence was aware of the preparation for the chemical attack three days prior to the attack. Did the US warn the rebel forces? Was there anything the US could have done to avoid the attack? Did it try to deter the attack in any way? Second, Secretary Kerry’s briefing was, in effect, a declaration of war. There is no way that one could interpret his statement as indicating anything other than an unfettered justification for a US attack. I cannot see how Kerry can walk back from his statement. The question is why did Kerry make such a statement today? The UN Inspectors are going to issue their report probably on Monday–why not wait for their corroboration before declaring war? Third, why would Kerry make such a statement before getting Congress on board for an attack? If the evidence is so compelling, then it is far simpler to tell a few members of Congress before one tries t
The Portuguese Constitutional Court has ruled that the latest IMF/EU austerity plan is not constitutional. The plan, which had called for a dramatic reduction in the number of public employees as a way of reducing the Portuguese budget deficit, had been a condition of financial assistance to Portugal to pay off its loans. The decision makes the implementation of the plan impossible, and it is not known whether the money will now be forthcoming.
The Washington Post has published the first really detailed outline of the budgets of the national intelligence agencies in the US. All told, the budgets total almost $53 billion, and the CIA receives the most of all the agencies. The information was part of the material leaked by Edward Snowden and the Post is only publishing summaries of the budgets in order not to betray any national security secrets. Nonetheless, the level of detail is more than Americans have ever seen before and it is a very revealing set of information.
The British House of Commons has rejected, 285-272, a motion by Prime Minister David Cameron to intervene militarily in Syria. The vote was a stunning blow to the Conservative Party, and represents the lingering resentment against British policy in the Iraqi War in 2003 as well as substantial doubts about the wisdom of an attack on Syria. There are reports that President Obama has determined that British participation in a strike was not a necessary condition for a strike, but the loss of a critical ally will undoubtedly complicate decision-making. Obama also has to consider his meeting with Russian President Putin in St. Petersburg next week, given that the Russians are moving more naval vessels into the Eastern Mediterranean.
I am sure everyone is aware that today is the 50th anniversary of Martin Luther King, Jr.’s speech, “I Have a Dream.” In my opinion it is the greatest speech of the 20th (and, so far, 21st) century. I doubt that I could even count the number of times I have listened to this speech. No matter what the news of today is, it is not nearly as important as King’s message and his unfinished dream.
The drumbeat for an air attack on Syria was quite intense today. The media is reporting that the attack is scheduled for Thursday, but one should not put too much stock is those reports. Air attacks are susceptible to weather and other considerations. Weirdly, life goes on, even in the middle of a war. If you want a good sense of when an air attack might occur, you can look at boat traffic in the Eastern Mediterranean. When the attack appears imminent, the vessels will flee the area.
The TImes of Israel is reporting that both the Syrian and Iranian governments have issued threats that, if Syria is attacked, then Israel will be held responsible and be attacked as well. It is not clear that such threats are serious. The Syrian army already has its hands full with the civil war, and the Iranian government has too much to lose by attacking Israel (it would open the door to an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities). The Israeli government, however, cannot afford to be so sanguine and is taking extraordinary measures to protect its citizens.
It is very difficult to find strong articles against a possible US strike on Syria–the absence of opposition is not unusual when the bloodshed in Syria has been so wanton. But it is important to listen carefully to the voices of opposition before the war begins, because after it begins is usually too late. Franklin Spinney has a very powerful argument against US intervention in Syria–it is historically rooted and cogent.
Evidence is mounting that an a Western airstrike against imminent against Syria. European military airplanes are being flown to the British airbase in Cyprus, just 100 miles from the Syrian coast. US Secretary of State Kerry said the evidence of a chemical attack was “undeniable” and called it a moral obscenity–such language commits the US to action. The Russian government has warned that any strike would be a blatant violation of international law. The likely strike would be a cruise missile strike against Syrian government military facilities. Such an attack would indeed violate international law unless it were authorized by the UN Security Council, an unlikely prospect given Russian opposition. So we have a very difficult situation. The chemical attack is a violation of international law; any military response without UN authorization is also a violation of international law. The continued violence against civilians in Syria is also a violation of international law.
What can we expect? The US, the French, and the British will attempt very carefully calibrated and precise attacks. They will stress that their attacks are designed only to disarm the Syrian military’s chemical arsenal. The Syrian air defenses are reputed to be quite effective, but their capabilities have never really been tested. Indeed, the Israelis have attacked Syrian territory on several occasions with great effectiveness. Let’s assume that the Wetsern attacks are successful and involve little loss of civilian life.
The next step would be up to the Syrians, the Russians, the Turks, and the Iranians. The Syrians offer little threat to the Western allies–if their air defenses fail, there is not much else for them to do. The attacks, however, would stiffen the backs of Assad’s supporters, and redoubled attacks on the rebel forces would be likely. The Turks would resent the intrusion of Western power into the region, but they support the rebels and would likely welcome the change in the balance of power. The Russians would be furious, but they are unlikely to confront the West directly. They would, however, increase their assistance to Assad. As long as no Russians soldiers are killed in the attacks, they are unlikely to join the fray. The Iranians are most likely to respond directly. Iran already has soldiers in Syria, and its ally, Hezbollah, would likely increase its military activity in both Syria and Lebanon (a move that would greatly unsettle the Israelis). However, their ability to confront the West military power directly is limited–more likely is an increased use of subversive activities such as cyberwarfare.
In short, the attacks would most likely not send the region into a general war. However, the one thing we don’t know about is how things could go wrong in the attack. Large civilian casualties would isolate the West from global public opinion. Attacks that kill Russian or Iranian soldiers would bring about pressure for direct confrontation and escalation. Increased refugee pressures due to the attacks would destabilize surrounding countries–Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, and Jordan–and large movements of Kurds would also be highly destabilizing. Finally, we don’t know what the Israeli government would think of these attacks and whether it would see an opportunity to take action itself against Syria of Iran.
The American (and the global) economy has changed dramatically in the last 30 years, and the changes have led to significant changes in the distribution of the ways wealth is distributed. We cannot specifically pinpoint the causes of the change, but the two most likely sources of the change are the process of globalization and technology. The changes are also associated with the widening income inequality which has been evident in most economies throughout the planet. THis graph shows how the rewards of economic activity have moved toward the people who posses capital and away from those who can only offer labor to the market.
Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctor Without Borders) is on the ground in Syria, and it is reporting that about 3,600 people flooded into hospitals after the recent attacks and that about 10% of that number died. The organization cannot itself confirm the use of chemical agents, nor can it identify who used the alleged agents, but it does affirm that the symptoms of the sick were consistent with the use use of a neurotoxic agent. The UN is putting pressure on the Syrian government to allow inspectors into to the country to assess the charges of chemical weapons use. The Iranian government is asserting that the Syrian rebels used the Chemical weapons, not the Syrian government. The US is positioning a fourth cruise-missile armed warship to the Eastern Mediterranean suggesting that an armed attack on Syria is being actively considered. Plans are being formulated for a summit meeting on the Syrian crisis to be held in Jordan early this week.
The trial of Bo Xilai, one of Chinese highest ranking officials, is being widely followed by the Chinese people. The Chinese government is allowing unprecedented coverage of the trial which is unusual in the amount of information being disseminated. Quite clearly, the government wishes to expose the corruption of Mr. Bo, but the coverage runs the risk of inflaming a more general reaction to the issue of corruption within the government. It is difficult at this time to determine how the trial will play out, although there is no question about whether Mr. Bo will be found guilty as charged.
Two scholars, Kalev Leetaru and Philip A. Schrodt, have done some extraordinary research in a project called Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone. What they have done is coded every political protest in the world from 1979-2010 and mapped it out. John Beieler, a doctoral candidate at Penn State, has adapted these data into striking maps, one of which was posted in Foreign Policy. FP is a paywalled site, but I am hoping that many of you can access the map by using a library or educational institution computer. Visually, the map communicates a very powerful message: the number and intensity of political protests in the world has been increasing dramatically since 1979.
There were two explosions outside of Sunni mosques in northern Lebanon today, killing at least 37 people and wounding more than 350. The bombings followed similar explosions last week in Lebanon and represent a major escalation in Sunni-Shia violence. The war in Syria has spread throughout the region, and there doesn’t seem to be any countervailing pressure at all.
President Obama is paying a significant political price for inaction after reports of another chemical weapons attack in Syria. The damage is self-inflicted since Obama himself described the use of chemical weapons as a “red line.” The dithering over whether the weapons were used is embarrassing after the video reports of so many children dead with no visible wounds–it is roughly similar to the semantic game over whether the military coup in Egypt was in fact a “coup.” Statespeople must be very careful to say only what they mean. If they do not, then their words will be ignored in future situations.
We’ve been getting dribs and drabs of information from Japan about the Fukishima nuclear power plant disaster. The generous interpretation of this slow dissemination of information is that TEPCO, the utility company that owns the reactors, really does not have a clue about the extent of the problem. But the recent information is difficult to assess. About 300 tons of radioactive water has been seeping out of the water holding tanks, releasing 30 trillion becquerels of radioactive material into the environment. TEPCO believes that the radioactive material is flowing into the ocean, but some scientists believe that it is flowing into groundwater. The amount of radioactive materials that have seeped out is equivalent to about 100 times what the utility company assumed would be released over the course of a year. No one is guessing what sorts of problems this catastrophe may or may not cause.
Le Figaro is reporting that Jordanian, Israeli, and American commandos have entered Syria in support of the rebel forces. This report has yet to be confirmed by any other news source, so it should be considered unreliable (although Le Figaro is France’s second largest newspaper). I will continue to search the web to see if there are any confirming reports.
The Indian rupee continues to slide in value, and the situation is truly worrisome. The decline in the rupee’s value will lead to strong inflation pressures in India, and, if the government tries to control inflation, it runs the risk of pushing the economy into a recession. Many of the emerging economies, once held to be more dynamic than the economies of the advanced industrialized countries, are increasingly experiencing economic difficulties.
World Politics News 