The drumbeat for an air attack on Syria was quite intense today. The media is reporting that the attack is scheduled for Thursday, but one should not put too much stock is those reports. Air attacks are susceptible to weather and other considerations. Weirdly, life goes on, even in the middle of a war. If you want a good sense of when an air attack might occur, you can look at boat traffic in the Eastern Mediterranean. When the attack appears imminent, the vessels will flee the area.
The TImes of Israel is reporting that both the Syrian and Iranian governments have issued threats that, if Syria is attacked, then Israel will be held responsible and be attacked as well. It is not clear that such threats are serious. The Syrian army already has its hands full with the civil war, and the Iranian government has too much to lose by attacking Israel (it would open the door to an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities). The Israeli government, however, cannot afford to be so sanguine and is taking extraordinary measures to protect its citizens.
It is very difficult to find strong articles against a possible US strike on Syria–the absence of opposition is not unusual when the bloodshed in Syria has been so wanton. But it is important to listen carefully to the voices of opposition before the war begins, because after it begins is usually too late. Franklin Spinney has a very powerful argument against US intervention in Syria–it is historically rooted and cogent.
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