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Evidence is mounting that an a Western airstrike against imminent against Syria.  European military airplanes are being flown to the British airbase in Cyprus, just 100 miles from the Syrian coast.  US Secretary of State Kerry said the evidence of a chemical attack was “undeniable” and called it a moral obscenity–such language commits the US to action.  The Russian government has warned that any strike would be a blatant violation of international law.  The likely strike would be a cruise missile strike against Syrian government military facilities.  Such an attack would indeed violate international law unless it were authorized by the UN Security Council, an unlikely prospect given Russian opposition.  So we have a very difficult situation.  The chemical attack is a violation of international law; any military response without UN authorization is also a violation of international law.  The continued violence against civilians in Syria is also a violation of international law.

What can we expect?  The US, the French, and the British will attempt very carefully calibrated and precise attacks.  They will stress that their attacks are designed only to disarm the Syrian military’s chemical arsenal.  The Syrian air defenses are reputed to be quite effective, but their capabilities have never really been tested.  Indeed, the Israelis have attacked Syrian territory on several occasions with great effectiveness.   Let’s assume that the Wetsern attacks are successful and involve little loss of civilian life.

The next step would be up to the Syrians, the Russians, the Turks, and the Iranians.   The Syrians offer little threat to the Western allies–if their air defenses fail, there is not much else for them to do.  The attacks, however, would stiffen the backs of Assad’s supporters, and redoubled attacks on the rebel forces would be likely.  The Turks would resent the intrusion of Western power into the region, but they support the rebels and would likely welcome the change in the balance of power.  The Russians would be furious, but they are unlikely to confront the West directly.  They would, however, increase their assistance to Assad.  As long as no Russians soldiers are killed in the attacks, they are unlikely to join the fray.  The Iranians are most likely to respond directly.  Iran already has soldiers in Syria, and its ally, Hezbollah, would likely increase its military activity in both Syria and Lebanon (a move that would greatly unsettle the Israelis).  However, their ability to confront the West military power directly is limited–more likely is an increased use of subversive activities such as cyberwarfare.

In short, the attacks would most likely not send the region into a general war.  However, the one thing we don’t know about is how things could go wrong in the attack.  Large civilian casualties would isolate the West from global public opinion.  Attacks that kill Russian or Iranian soldiers would bring about pressure for direct confrontation and escalation.  Increased refugee pressures due to the attacks would destabilize surrounding countries–Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, and Jordan–and large movements of Kurds would also be highly destabilizing.  Finally, we don’t know what the Israeli government would think of these attacks and whether it would see an opportunity to take action itself against Syria of Iran.

Stay tuned.