For the first time in the history of the UN, an elected member state has refused to take its seat on the UN Security Council. Saudi Arabia declined to take its seat because it believes that the Security Council is unable to perform its duties in Syria and that the Council is plagued by “double standards.” The decision is a blow to the prestige of the Council, and represents the thinking of many other countries. The Russians, however, derided the Saudi decision, reflecting the current bad relations between the two states.
Pakistan has estimated that out of 2,200 people killed by US drone strikes, about 400 were innocent civilians. The use of drones is a very controversial military tactic, although the US defends the practice since it believes that the strikes have been effective in killing terrorists.
Ever wonder how common your name is? The Atlantic has published a fascinating graphic on the popularity of names for girls since 1960. It really is a remarkable commentary.
The Xinhua editorial calling for a “de-Americanized” world has been resonating throughout the foreign press, although it has received very little attention within the American media. Pepe Escobar is a regular contributor to the Asia TImes and I think that he is a very perceptive observer of world affairs. He picks up the Xinhua theme and makes some very good points, as well as some outlandish ones. The theme certainly picked up steam given the circus in Washington these last few weeks, but it would be a serious mistake to think that a structural shift away from US power is imminent. It will happen, but less quickly than many believe. Der Spiegel has a solid essay on the problems facing the emerging powers.
The Overseas Development Institute, one of the oldest and prestigious global poverty think tanks, has published a report that links extreme weather events to poverty. The poor are most susceptible to the disruptions caused by drought, flooding, and extreme rainfall. The poor also lack the resources to recover fully from such calamities. The number of people who are living in regions that are experiencing increased numbers of extreme weather events is considerable, and addressing this aspect of climate change is of urgent importance.
One of the great unknowns of the US-Iraq war that began in 2003 was the number of Iraqis killed. The US quite deliberately did not keep count of the enemy killed because it wanted to avoid the trap of keeping a “body count” as it did in Vietnam. It was also very difficult for the press and international and non-governmental organizations to operate within Iraq. The University of Washington Department of Global Health conducted a meticulous study in Iraq and has published its findings: the study estimates that the number of Iraqis killed as a result of US actions at 461,000. The number is consistent with previous estimates, but is considerably higher than most people think.
One of the very interesting things about the conflict in Syria is the fact that the US and Iran have somewhat compatible interests. The Iranians want President Assad to survive, and the US does not want the Sunni rebels who wish to overthrow Assad to succeed. Though these interests are not the same, these interests are both opposed to Saudi Arabia’s interest which is to see the Sunni insurgents succeed. If given a choice, the US would likely prefer Assad to survive rather than see a radical regime seize power in Syria. If Iran and the US could see their mutual interests, there may be a better opportunity to bring peace. If Assad were to survive, perhaps the US could demand a clear policy of reconciliation after the conflict ends.
The economic situation in Europe as a whole is precarious, but the situation in Greece is worse than anything we saw during the Great Depression of the 1930s. The inability of Greece to regain economic growth is, in large part, a result of the misguided “austerity” measures imposed on it by the EU and the IMF. The poverty of the policy is well-demonstrated by this long essay by C. J. Polychroniou, Unfortunately, the policies are similar to the ones being pushed in the US by those who support the Tea Party.
Parag Khanna is a senior research fellow at the New America Foundation and has written an op-ed piece for the New York Times on the end of the nation-state. It is a very insightful essay, but I’m not sure that the conclusion follows logically. I will concede that the complexity of the layers of authority in the contemporary world is mind-boggling, but I’m not sure that the ultimate power of the nation-state is being eroded. What we need to test that proposition is to see some sort of conflict between the nation-state and some of these completing authorities.
The humanitarian tragedy in Syria overshadows all other considerations. But it is also clear that besides losing moral standing in the world, the US is losing strategic ground there as well. The forces backed by the Western powers are steadily losing territory to the more radical groups fighting against Assad. Groups from Iraq are prevalent in the fighting and al Qaeda groups are steadily becoming more powerful. If these forces succeed in seizing control, Western efforts to support liberal movements in the Middle East will suffer a severe setback.
The National Front in France has won a by-election in southeast France by a wide margin. The National Front is a far-right group that has made anti-immigrant sentiment a central objective, and discontent with the current Socialist government has broadened its appeal. The by-election suggests that anti-Euro feelings in France are increasing, and the European Parliament elections are scheduled for next May. The trend does not augur well.
China’s official news agency published a very long article arguing that the world needs to free itself from the influence of the United States since it does not seem as if the US is capable of behaving responsibly. The current stalemate in Washington has shaken the confidence of many countries in the world, but the Chinese opinion is quite dramatic: “Such alarming days when the destinies of others are in the hands of a hypocritical nation have to be terminated. . .A new world order should be put in place, according to which all nations, big or small, poor or rich, can have their key interests respected and protected on an equal footing.” Unfortunately, the world is far from being able to choose a successor to the US, and the Chinese offer no real alternative.
Chinese exports fell unexpectedly by 0.3% in September (compared to last September), raising serious questions about the state of the global economy. The biggest drop was to countries in Southeast Asia, and analysts fear that the downturn is due to a fear that US monetary policy will stiffen as the Federal Reserve slows down its policy of quantitative easing. That easing will likely cause currencies around the world to rise leading to reduce spending on imports. The uncertainty over US budget and debt policy will also serve to aggravate that tendency.
We often have the sense that the media is not always reporting accurately, and nowhere does this suspicion arise more often than on the issue of climate change. Media Matters for America has done a study of media reporting on climate change and found that the media often try to present a “balanced” point of view by interviewing people who reject the possibility of human induced climate change even if their scientific credentials are lacking. The strategy thus leads to the sense that climate scientists themselves are having a similar debate, a conclusion that is most certainly not the case.
If you wish to be really spooked about climate change, you should check out the new research just published by a team of Rutgers geologists. I have no credentials whatsoever in assessing their findings.
Apparently, the Greek Party, Golden Dawn, has established chapters in the US. The party which is unapologetically sympathetic to Nazi ideology believes that it can find sympathetic followers in the US. It is hard to assess its popularity in the US, but it will undoubtedly find many frustrated Americans who might be looking for an alternative to the usual politics in Washington.
The east coast of India is bracing for the cyclone, Phailin, which is both very large and incredibly powerful. In US terms, the cyclone is easily a Category 5 hurricane, and the cyclone spreads over 1,000 miles from India to Myanmar. Mass evacuations have been ordered, but the expected damage will be considerable.
The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has been awarded this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. The selection was due in large part to the critical role the OPCW is playing in the chemical disarmament of Syria. The announcement doubtless disappointed those who wished to see Malala Yousafzai win the prize, but the selection is probably directed toward reinforcing the OPCW’s position in Syria. The Nobel Committee likely assumed that the prize would lend great legitimacy to the effort to disarm chemical weapons.
The current stalemate between the Republicans and the Democrats offers a fascinating opportunity to think about the balance of power. It is, after all, a power struggle between the two parties, and the standoff is an example of how two states find themselves on the brink of war. The Atlantic, has a great article on how the negotiations are playing out, and how important it is to find an outcome that does not eliminate an essential actor. Or, perhaps, why a power struggle can force a major actor to redefine its interests.
The European Parliament has awarded Malala Yousafzai its prestigious Sakharov prize for human rights. Yousafzai was shot by the Pakistan Taliban for her outspoken advocacy for education for girls and women in Pakistan. Her courage has been an inspiration to millions and the award is well-deserved.
The BBC has an article that reviews world reactions to the current stalemate in Washington, DC. The article emphatically refutes the idea that there is a sharp distinction between domestic and international politics. Unfortunately, the US Congress does not seem to appreciate the responsibilities of global power and seems incapable of understanding how its actions literally affect billions of people.
French President Hollande has issued a dire warning about the rise of right-wing parties in Europe, arguing that their rise could fatally compromise the European integration process. Hollande was particularly concerned about how well these parties might do in the elections for the European Parliament scheduled for next May. The rise of these parties is clearly a continent-wide phenomenon with virtually no country immune from the appeal of the far-right.
As many of you know, I am quite concerned about the growth of income inequality since I believe that as it worsens, the overall economy will suffer. On a global scale, wealth (not income) is massively unequal: “32 million people, representing 0.7% of the world’s adult, population control $98.7 trillion or about 41% of the world’s wealth.” How long such a lop-sided distribution can persist is unknown.
And where do the super-wealthy live?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth forecast. The Fund lowered its growth estimates by 0.2 percent from its forecast last July. Its expectation is that the global economy will only grow by 2.9% this year. This estimate may prove to be overly optimistic if the US does not address its budgetary and debt issues. Indeed, the governance issues in the US may sharply lower global economic growth if it seems to the rest of the world that the US is no longer reliable. We are beginning to get some indications that global investors are becoming apprehensive, and as the deadline of 17 October gets closer those fears will only get worse.
The loss of nearly 300 lives near the Italian island of Lampedusa is testimony to how desperate many people are to leave their home country in search of a better life in Europe. And the increasingly nasty political rhetoric against immigrants is testimony to the growing nationalism in Europe, and a desire to protect national economies from competition in the labor market. The situation, however, is different if you are a rich immigrant. Many European states will welcome people from other countries if they have the means to buy a house. The inconsistency is telling.
As the whole world watches the showdown in Washington, DC., it is useful to know who the players are. One person who is often overlooked in this deadlock is Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader. Apparently, he is the real driver behind the White House’s adamant stance against negotiations. It also appears as if Reid loves a fight. We should watch him more carefully as the shutdown continues.
China currently owns about $1.277 trillion of US Treasury bonds. Needless to say, the prospect of a US credit default on 17 October is quite frightening to the Chinese government, and it has made it clear to the US that it expects a default to be avoided at all costs. It does not appear that the members of Congress who are threatening a default seem to care about the effects of a default on foreign creditors. It is important to understand that nervous investors will begin to act before the actual default if they believe that a default is inevitable, so market fear is becoming a real issue even now.
Meanwhile, income inequality in the US continues to widen. The most recent data, using statistics from the US Internal Revenue Service that extends to 2012, shows that breaking down the data into two sets [from 1947-79 and 1979-2012) indicates that the earlier period was one where most Americans shared in economic growth and the later period showed sharp divergence. The key difference in the two periods was the lower tax rates that characterized the second period. You can see the difference if you check the radio buttons in the graph. Pay particular attention to what happens to the 0-20% of the lower income brackets in the period 1979-2012 (hint, hint).
The US-Russian-UN agreement on the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons appears to be proceeding well. I have never been more delighted to have been proven wrong, and my skepticism seems to have been unwarranted. There is no question that this process would not have begun without the strong support of Russia and Vladimir Putin. Let us hope that the process continues to go well and easily.
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