Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spoke at the UN General Assembly, trying to refute charges by his critics that he is re-establishing Japanese militarism in East Asia. He tried to deflect the charges by pointing to the rapid increase in military spending by China. The speech symbolizes the “security dilemma” perfectly. Both Japan and China have a myriad of reasons to cooperate, most importantly in terms of their economic relationship. There are, however, some genuine disagreements between the two countries which tend to overshadow their common interests, and the rapid increase of military spending by both will tend to emphasize those disagreements.
There have been a number of stories about the two commando raids conducted by the US recently, one in Libya and one in Somalia. We still know very little about the raids, but they were touted as indications of American resolve against al-Qaeda. But questions have been raised about their effectiveness, and the Libyan government has protested the US intrusion against Libyan sovereignty. It is often useful to take into account the perceptions of outsiders when assessing the value of such operations.
US Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel, has made the determination that 400,000 civilian defense workers are “essential” and thereby exempt from the budget constraints of the US government shutdown. That action reduces the number of furloughed workers by half. One should ask the question, however, is how such a determination is made. Do military concerns automatically trump domestic concerns? How does one decide that those who offer food assistance to poor families are less essential than those who are working on a military technology that may be years away from deployment.
The US conducted two raids on Saturday against groups implicated in terrorist activities. One operation was in Somalia against members of al Shabab, the organization that conducted the attack on the mall in Kenya. The other operation was to arrest Anas al-Libi, an individual who is believed to have been the mastermind in the bombing attacks against the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. The raids suggest how seriously the US regards the recent spate of bombings that have occurred in a number of places in recent months.
Israel is a recognized nation-state, but it has one curious feature: there is no Israeli “nation.” The population register of Israel recognizes individuals as Jews or Arabs, but not as Israelis. The bureaucratic recognition of Israeli nationality would have repercussions for Israeli identity as a Jewish state: non-Jews could claim to be Israelis. At some point, Israel will have to square this anomaly with its democracy. A liberal democracy cannot conflate religion with citizenship.
The small Italian island of Lampedusa is an objective for many people who wish to immigrate to Europe. Most of these immigrants are from North Africa and they are seeking a better life in Europe. Once in Lampedusa, the immigrants can make claims for asylum and assistance, and every year, thousands of immigrants make the perilous voyage. Two days ago, a small boat, with hundreds of immigrants, recently sank, and about 200 people are missing. The tragedy has re-ignited the controversy about immigration in Europe, a controversy that will only intensify.
We have discussed in class the seemingly chaotic nature of politics in the world today–a sense of drift and a lack of vision and purpose. Some commentators are talking more explicitly about the lack of leadership in the world. The leaders of most countries seem to be focused on the short term because the problems seem to be so overwhelming. But continued attention to only the short term is a disastrous policy in the long run. Remarkably, I cannot think of any leader in the world right now who appears to have a vision of how he or she wishes the world to look like in 10 years, and that is very sad.
One of the 20th Century’s great military minds, Vietnam’s Vo Nguyen Giap, has died. Giap led his forces to victories over both the French and American armies in the drive for Vietnam’s independence and unification. In both cases, few gave Giap much chance of winning his struggle, but he was able to mobilize his forces to make heroic sacrifices and to exploit his enemy’s weaknesses. One need not agree with his objectives, but it is hard to dispute his acumen as a military mind.
The International Monetary Fund has issued a warning to the US about the controversy over passing the debt ceiling limit. It is rare for the IMF to criticize its largest donor, and the warning gives a clear idea of how serious the matter is for the global economy. Whether the warning will serve to move the US Congress to take action remains to be seen.
Richard Haas, the President of the Council on Foreign Relations, reviews the ways the US government shutdown affects US foreign policy. There are a very wide number of ripple effects of the shutdown, and most people do not think immediately of foreign policy. But the shutdown brings into question the integrity and reliability of the US, both critical components of the trust necessary to conduct a predictable foreign policy.
This entry is not about world politics, but I cannot resist the urge to post a recent piece in The Atlantic about the ways marketing strategies target women. I will not ask any questions on the quiz about this post, but I found the strategies outlined to be massively repugnant. The power of the “new” technologies can be used for good and for ill–this is power grossly abused.
The shutdown of the US government has led a number of observers abroad to wonder about the stability and coherence of the American political system Der Spiegel has some delightful observations about American politics, including its characterization of one of the parties as the “Kamikaze Party.” Needless to say, most of the reviews of the shutdown are highly negative and unflattering.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a speech to the United Nations in which he warned the international community not to trust the peace overtures of the new Iranian President Rouhani. In his speech, the Prime Minister made a big point of arguing that Iran’s hostility to Israel was based upon a deep-seated antisemitism. Interestingly, Iran has the largest population of Jews in the Middle East outside of Israel. The Jewish community in Iran is a very long-standing part of Persian culture, and although Jews do face official discrimination in some areas, the evidence is strong that they do not face any obstacles in practicing their religion.
The immediate crisis in Italian politics appears to be over, as members of the center-right party of the governing coalition indicate that they will not leave the coalition to show support for Silvio Berlusconi. It was a humiliating defeat for Berlusconi who now faces expulsion from the Italian Senate. But is assures that the current coalition can continue to govern and will survive a vote of no-confidence. Nonetheless, the political and economic situation in Italy remains fragile.
A special Bangladeshi court has sentenced Salauddin Quader Chowdhury to death by hanging. The court found Chowdhury guilty of nine charges including murder and arson in connection with the many deaths in the 1971 Bangladeshi war of Independence from Pakistan. Chowdhury is a member of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and his father was a key figure in the Muslim League. They did not support Bangladeshi independence, preferring that the area remain a part of Pakistan (it was called East Pakistan at the time). Chowdhury was found guilty of killing Hindus leaving in the country at the time. There are many questions about the legitimacy of the tribunal and security forces in Bangladesh are on alert in case of violent protests against the verdict.
A survey of African countries has found that, despite expectations, poverty has not declined substantially in the continent. Many countries have experienced high rates of economic growth, fueled largely by strong demand for raw materials in China, India, and Brazil. Sadly, however, that economic growth has not trickled down to the vast majority of the citizens living in Africa. The eradication of poverty requires more specific focus and targeting than simply relying on macroeconomic growth.
Violence in Iraq has already exceeded last year’s total death toll. The violence is all associated with jockeying among the Sunni, the Shia, and the Kurds for control of local and national political control. Most Americans have quickly forgotten about Iraq, and it is a serious mistake to blame all the violence on the American invasion in 2003 and its withdrawal in 2012. Nonetheless, the US has clearly washed its hands of the highly unstable state and its neglect is a serious mistake given the strategic and economic significance of the country.
As world power continues to re-calibrate as former powers decline and new powers rise, the shift is manifesting itself in military spending. Within the military there is a constant tension between sea/air and land forces, as these forces play different roles. To address shifts in global power, it is best to be able to respond flexibly, and navies offer the best way to shift power quickly. And navies all over the world are becoming much stronger and more robust. The relative inability of land-based armies to produce decisive results (in Iraq and Afghanistan) has diminished the appeal of that arm of military power.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Obama and urged him to proceed cautiously with respect to Iran. From the Israeli perspective, Iran represents a central threat and a temporary change in government does not alter the strategic threat it poses to Israeli security. It will be difficult for President Obama to thread this needle: engaging Iran productively without alienating Israel. Obama would be well-advised to enlist the aid of allies to test the sincerity of Iranian intentions–that strategy will keep channels to both sides open.
The Guardian continues to publish information about the US National Security Agency from materials leaked by Edward Snowden. Its most recent article details how the NSA stores “metadata” in a program codenamed “Marina.” Contrary to what the US government has asserted, the NSA stores information from everyone, even those people who are not targeted by the NSA. It keeps that information for a year, even though it asserts that that material is not reviewed. How does it feel to know that the NSA can know everything you do (if it chooses) on the internet?
Peter Turchin, a mathematician at the University of Connecticut, has developed a mathematical model of the spread of empires. Intriguingly, he found that conflict among societies and the development of military technology were among the two most important variables explaining the spread of empires. I will confess that I have little expertise to evaluate the integrity of the model, but the simulation, when compared to the actual data, is quite impressive. I will leave it to others to determine whether the model is something we should use as a guide.
Pakistan suffered its third major bomb attack in a week, as a bomb blew up an historic market in Peshawar. The political situation in Pakistan seems to be rapidly deteriorating, even more so because of a series of earthquakes that have killed many and injured hundreds. The legitimacy of the Pakistani government and its effectiveness are being increasingly questioned.
The US may, along with Greece and Italy, be facing a major economic crisis as the Congress appears unable to agree upon a budget. While the economic situation in the US is not as precarious as in the other two states, its inability to accomplish routine tasks is raising questions about whether democracies are in fact governable in the 21st century. It is an interesting historical moment.
Greek police arrested Nikos Michaloliakos, the leader of the ultra-right party Golden Dawn as well as several members of the Greek legislature. The police charged them with terrorism charges after the murder of leftist hip-hop artist, Pavlos Fyssas. It is highly unusual to arrest sitting members of Parliament, and it remains to be seen whether the arrests will trigger a crisis in the Greek government. Given the dire economic conditions in Greece, a political crisis would likely create a panic among Greek creditors. The Italian government will also dissolve soon after the defection of five legislators associated with Silvio Berlusconi.
Iranian President Rouhani returned to Iran after a very dramatic visit to the United Nations. His return was marked by both supporters and opponents of his conciliatory remarks to the US. The US reciprocated by hosting a meeting between Secretary of State Kerry and the Iranian Foreign Minister as well as a telephone call to Rouhani from President Obama. This was the first direct contact between the two countries since 1979, and it genuinely seems as if both sides are interested in a thaw in relations.
It’s Saturday night. Relax. Here’s a great song. Written by Jackson Browne and played by The Eagles. Remember: “We may lose, and we may win. But we’ll never be here again.”
Well, I’m running down the road
tryin’ to loosen my load
I’ve got seven women on
my mind,
Four that wanna own me,
Two that wanna stone me,
One says she’s a friend of mine
Take It easy, take it easy
Don’t let the sound of your own wheels
drive you crazy
Lighten up while you still can
don’t even try to understand
Just find a place to make your stand
and take it easy
Well, I’m a standing on a corner
in Winslow, Arizona
and such a fine sight to see
It’s a girl, my Lord, in a flatbed
Ford slowin’ down to take a look at me
Come on, baby, don’t say maybe
I gotta know if your sweet love is
gonna save me
We may lose and we may win though
we will never be here again
so open up, I’m climbin’ in,
so take it easy
Well I’m running down the road trying to loosen
my load, got a world of trouble on my mind
lookin’ for a lover who won’t blow my
cover, she’s so hard to find
Take it easy, take it easy
don’t let the sound of your own
wheels make you crazy
come on baby, don’t say maybe
I gotta know if your sweet love is
gonna save me, oh oh oh
Oh we got it easy
We oughta take it easy
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued its most recent report which attributes, “with virtual certainty”, the rise in global temperatures over the last century to human activity. Needless to say, there are some who contest this conclusion, but The Guardian gives a close analysis to the reasons to believe that it is a valid one.
Often the violence after a war is just as bad as the violence during the war. Ian Buruma is one of the world’s pre-eminent historians and he has written a book entitled Year Zero: A History of 1945. In this review of the book, Brooke Allen outlines the savage actions by the victors in World War II against the losers, notably the use of rape as a way to impose humiliation on those who chose, or who were forced to choose, the losing side of the conflict.
Nadezhda Tolokonnikova is one of the members of the group, Pussy Riot, who was imprisoned in Russia for crimes that basically consist of “disturbing the public order.” Her imprisonment is considered by many outside of Russia to be excessive and a clear violation of human rights. She has written a letter describing her confinement to the world which deserves a close read.
World Politics News 