At the Munich Security Conference, the Ukrainian opposition asked for assistance from the European Union and the US. The violations of human rights committed by the Ukrainian government against the protesters are certainly serious enough to warrant sanction, but the request places the Western countries in an awkward situation. They most definitely want to show support for the protesters, but they also wish to avoid giving Russian President Putin an excuse to claim outside interference in Ukrainian internal affairs.
The Syrian peace negotiations in Geneva ended today in abject failure. None of the parties seemed willing to engage in any meaningful dialogue, and, apparently, there were complications with the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons. While the negotiations were being conducted, nearly 2,000 Syrian civilians died. The international community needs to apply more pressure on the parties involved.
South Hadley and Western Massachusetts seem to be moving out of a bitterly cold period of winter (let’s hope the sub-zero temperatures don’t return). In contrast, Brazil and Australia, in the southern hemisphere, are going through a brutal summer. The summer in Brazil is damaging an already fragile economy, leading to greater fears for the overall economic health of the emerging economies.
The bloodshed in the Central African Republic continues, as rival militias continue to carry out atrocities. The Seleka, a Muslim group, has been attacking Christian communities for the last few months, but the tide of violence has recently shifted and the Seleka have left many of their established positions in the country. The retreat of the Seleka has left Muslim communities exposed to extreme violence carried out by Christian groups. Apparently, the French humanitarian intervention has failed to stem the violence, but also seems to have shifted the balance of power in the country.
The documents leaked by Edward Snowden continue to embarrass the US Government. The latest batch of leaked memos show that the National Security Agency (NSA) spied on delegate conversations at the Copenhagen climate talks in 2009. These discussions could hardly be considered absolutely essential to the national security of the country. Interestingly, the revelations seemed not to shock many of the delegates, who simply assumed that the Americans (and the Chinese) were spying on them.
Ukrainian President Yanukovich went on sick leave today, claiming an illness prevented him from carrying out his daily duties. His absence leaves Ukraine essentially rudderless, and it is not clear how either the government or the protesters can negotiate while he is indisposed. The power vacuum is perilous: the Ukrainian economy looks increasingly fragile, and outsiders (the IMF, Russia, or perhaps the EU) will be reluctant to help the country out if they believe that the government is incapable of implementing any necessary reforms.
The Ukrainian Parliament has voted an amnesty bill for protesters on the condition that they leave the government buildings they have occupied. The bill passed with government support, but no opposition members voted for it, arguing that it was a blackmail bill. Indeed, the protesters have voted to continue occupying buildings until the government falls. It does appear, however, that the government has decided that a more conciliatory approach is necessary. Forbearance by a threatened government does not typically last very long.
Niall Ferguson is a controversial writer, and he has stirred up quite a hornet’s nest in a recent essay arguing that Britain should not have opposed Germany in the First World War. There will be much written in this, the hundred year anniversary, of World War I. Ferguson argued a strong realist position in the essay when he asserted that defending Belgium’s neutrality was not in Britain’s national interest in 1914. Given the heroic sacrifices of the British people in that war, it is unlikely that many will look kindly upon an assertion that the war was a mistake.
The Ukrainian Prime Minster, Mykola Azarov, has resigned from the government. This move is the first major political victory of the Ukrainian protest movement against the government of President Yanukovich, but it unlikely to defuse the crisis. After all the violence associated with the protests, the opposition is not likely to accept any outcome other than the end of the Yanukovich government. In the meantime, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned the European Union not to intrude upon Ukrainian internal affairs.
The Turkish Central Bank has raised interest rates to very high levels in an attempt to restore confidence in the Turkish currency after its rather precipitous decline in recent days. The increases were far greater than most economists had expected, and it achieved the desired effect of stabilizing the lira, the Turkish currency. However, the interest rates will almost certainly throttle economic activity in the country over the next few months, and an economic decline could bring greater instability in the long run. Turkey is desperately trying to forge a path between short- and long-run imperatives.
Japan is not the only country rethinking its military policy in the face of a more restrained US presence in world affairs: Germany is also thinking about changing its postwar policy. The rethinking does not reflect the views of the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, who is more likely to prefer a more subdued role for Germany. But Germany, like all other European states, is well aware of the power vacuum that is being generated by the US’s move toward a less ambitious foreign presence.
The Egyptian military council has told Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi that he can run for President in Egypt’s upcoming election. al-Sisi was responsible for the overthrow of Mohammed Morsi, the Egyptian President after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarek in 2011, and he will almost certainly win the election. The political system of Egypt has been in near constant turmoil after the coup that overthrew Morsi and most Egyptians look to al-Sisi as the most reliable protector against a return to power by the Muslim Brotherhood. We will have to see if the election of al-Sisi will be accompanied by a decline in the protection of human rights.
The situation in Ukraine remains somewhat murky. Anti-government protesters have ended their occupation of some government buildings after a threat by the government to declare a state of emergency (which, presumably, would authorize the Ukrainian military to intervene). The EU has demanded the repeal of the recent laws passed against protesting, and it appears as if President Yanukovich has invited opposition leaders to join the government (an offer that was spurned). So there is some movement, but the direction of that movement is still uncertain.
Many international disputes are settled peacefully but peaceful resolutions rarely make the news. In a boundary dispute that goes back to the 1880s, Chile and Peru have accepted an international agreement that settles the maritime boundaries of the two states. It appears as if both sides will abide by the agreement, and the settlement addresses one of the last lingering boundary issues in Latin America.
Protesters in Thailand have been agitating for the last few months demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. The protests have grown increasingly violent as the anti-government movement believes that the Shinawatra government is corrupt and does not represent the interests of the urban population. The death of a prominent anti-government protester may force the government to cancel the scheduled election on 2 February. The protest movement does not believe that any election held under the auspices of the Shinawatra government can be fair.
NASA has released a video showing the changes in the temperature of the planet over a period of six decades. The evidence seems conclusive that temperatures have risen during that period. The video, however, does not give us any information about why the temperature has increased.
An historic agreement has been reached between the government of the Philippines and Muslim insurgents located primarily in the southern part of the country. Violence between the primarily Christian north and the Islamic south is long-standing, and the new agreement gives substantial autonomy to the southern province of Mindanao. This agreement is part of a process that was initiated in October of 2012. It is probably too soon to claim that the agreement has solved the dispute, but it is a substantial step forward.
Some people have benefited from globalization and some have suffered. Branko Milanovic, an economist at the World Bank, has compiled data which shows which groups have gained and lost income from 2988-2008. The data has been transferred to a graph which shows how income gains and losses have been distributed among different groups in different categories and regions of the world. While it is easy to make the case that the middle class in the US has suffered from globalization, the process has also created larger middle classes in other countries of the world. But the poor have not benefited at all, and the rich have gained the most by far.
Peace negotiations between the warring sides in Geneva have begun, although without any representation from Iran, a key player. It is difficult to overstate the difficulties facing the negotiations between adversaries that have been fighting for three years, and in a conflict in which so many atrocities have been committed. Nonetheless, without negotiations, there was no reason to believe that there would be any changes at all for the better.
On the third anniversary of the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, 29 people have been killed in widespread protests throughout Egypt. The unrest reflects almost a complete breakdown of political legitimacy in Egypt, as various groups compete for power. In essence, there does not seem to be a political center in Egypt today, but rather a constellation of competing factions with limited appeals to small groups within Egypt. The military government seems to have been unable to forge a consensus within Egypt about a political framework that seems legitimate. Until such a framework appears, the violence will likely continue.
Gillian Sorensen, Senior Advisor at the UN Foundation and UNA-GB members
Stoddard’s Fine Food and Ale
48 Temple Place, Boston, MA
Wednesday, February 19, 6:00 – 7:30 p.m
*Ticket price covers light appetizers. Cash bar available
Gillian Sorenson is a senior advisor at the United Nations Foundation, a national advocate on matters related to the UN and the US-UN relationship.
From 1997-2003, she served as Assistant Secretary-General for External Relations under Secretary General Kofi Annan, where she was responsible for outreach to non-governmental organizations and was the contact person for the secretary-general with parliamentarians, the academic world, religious leaders, and other groups committed to peace, justice, development and human rights.
Prior to that, she served as Special Advisor for Public Policy under Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali. With her unique ‘insider’ perspecitve she explores the issues that populate headlines today and is a persuasive advocate for the UN.
Mark your calendars! Please join us for a discussion with Evyenia Sidereas, the U.S. State Department Diplomat in Residence for New England on January 29 at 4:15pm in Dwight 101.
She will be on campus to discuss State Department internships and career opportunities. Students are welcome to reviewhttp://careers.state.gov/ for information about the Department’s student programs and career paths at any time, and may reach out to Ms. Sidereas with specific questions at DIRNewEngland@state.gov if you cannot attend the session.
Ms. Sidereas has served overseas in Thailand, Kosovo, Egypt, and Iraq. Most recently, she was the acting Director for Maghreb Affairs at the State Department’s headquarters in Washington, DC. Please join us on January 29!
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