For the first time the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, formal talks have been held between the PRC and the breakaway province of Taiwan. In 1949, the Kuomintang leaders of China fled the mainland and set up a government in exile on the island of Taiwan. For a long period of time, Taiwan held the Permanent Seat on the UN Security Council reserved for China, largely through the backing of Britain, France, and the United States. That policy ended in 1972, when the US recognized that there was only one China and that the PRC was the government of China. Nonetheless, Taiwan has remained aloof from the PRC, and a constant irritant to normal diplomatic relations in the region. The opening of formal talks holds out the promise that a reunification might be possible.
An unknown group has launched rocket attacks at German targets in Greece. The group claims that its attack are targeting the “German capitalist machine” in protest against the austerity measures imposed on Greece because of its budget crisis. Germany has pushed hard for very stringent economic measures as a way to solve the budget crisis, but many in Greece believe that those measures are primarily designed to protect the loans given to Greece by German banks. It is not clear how support this armed group has within Greece, but the escalation of violence suggests an intensification of the anxiety in Greece.
The American media coverage of the Olympics has been weird. Some outlets seem to think that the Cold War is still going on (or, perhaps, would like to see it revived). There are, to be sure, policy differences between Russia and the US, but the silent glee at every snafu in the Games is juvenile and in bad taste. Jason Jones does a great job of skewering American stereotypes of Russia.
For the first time, the United States has explicitly rejected China’s claims to the South China Sea as measured by what China calls the “Nine Dash Line.” No other country has accepted the Chinese claim and the claim itself is inconsistent with the United Nations’ Law of the Seas Convention. China, however, asserts that the claim has been made by China since the founding of the Chinese People’s Republic in 1949. It is doubtful that the US rejection represents any change of position, but it remains to be seen how the competing claims to the sea will be settled.
The Obama Administration is debating whether it should kill an American citizen living abroad who has been working on behalf of radicals who wish to do harm to the United States. It is rare for the US to kill a citizen without due process of law, a right guaranteed to all citizens by the Constitution. Obviously, the ability to pass summary judgments against a citizen without a court hearing is a problematic power. However, the contrary argument is that the US has a right to protect itself against those who wish to inflict harm on its citizens. The critical question is how significant the protocols are against possible abuse of power.
The US is currently going through a rather quiet, but nonetheless sustained, debate about whether it should reduce its commitments abroad. Many believe that such a move is inevitable, given the costs of engagement abroad and the willingness of the American people to suppor a world role for the US. Joseph Nye, however, argues that the US should not return to what he terms an “isolationist” policy.
As the Olympics are celebrated in Sochi, we would do well to remember the history of Russian control over that region. It was once part of the Ottoman Empire, and Russian expansion to the Black Sea generated significant tensions, not only between the adherents of Islam and Russian Orthodox Christianity, but also among the great powers. Sochi itself was the site of an atrocity as Russian troops pushed for the expulsion of what were then termed the Circassian peoples. The hostility that we witness today between the separatists from Chechnya and Dagestan and Russian control from Moscow has its roots in that struggle.
In a stunning vote, Swiss voters narrowly approved tougher limits on immigration. Nearly 20% of the 8 million Swiss are immigrants, and major corporations fought hard against the proposed restrictions. But the Swiss People’s Party was able to mobilize enough voters to pass the measure. It is too soon to see how the restrictions will be implemented, but the decision places the Swiss in stark opposition to the policies of the European Union. Switzerland is not a member of the EU, but a very large percentage of its exports go to the EU and there likely will be some retaliation against the measure. The vote, however, does measure the degree of anti-immigrant hostility in the world today.
Iran has reached an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency that has far-reaching consequences for the Non-Proliferation Treaty. It has agreed to allow the IAEA to explore non-nuclear dimensions of Iranian military policy, specifically Iran’s research on non-nuclear detonation devices. The move will go far to allay some of the fears about Iran’s ambitions and its willingness to allow inspections of this sort suggests its strong interest in reaching some accommodation with the United Nations.
Speigel has published a fascinating short essay on how the end of World War I lead to World War II. The essay brings up a host of pertinent issues, but offers them from a fresh and well=considered perspective. The essay places the blame for World War II squarely on the United States: “Wilson drafted a new world order, in which all nations were granted a right to self-determination. But when it came to stepping into America’s new role as a hegemon, Congress withdrew its support by forcing the president to agree to a strict policy of nonintervention.” I am not sure that the decision of the US explains the vindictiveness of the French in 1918 or the aggressiveness of Hitler, but the reluctance of the US to ensure peace in Europe was undoubtedly a factor.
An aid convoy to the city of Homs in Syria came under intense fire and the humanitarian mission was aborted. Thus, what would have been the only tangible outcome to the peace talks in Geneva failed. The talks are rescheduled to begin again this week, but the hopes for progress seem negligible at best. The fighting in other areas of Syria continued unabated during the three day ceasefire.
When politicians use the word “Munich” they are typically calling for a more robust military and diplomatic position in world affairs; Munich is a code for policies that suggest weakness invites aggression. Historical metaphors are always dangerous. History never repeats itself and the differences between two historical circumstances usually overwhelm superficial similarities. Many, however, use the word Munich to describe the tepid response of the world to Chinese claims in the South China Sea. And at least one country, the Philippines, is concerned that the Chinese are getting emboldened by the lack of a response to its claims in the region.
Bosnia has entered its third day of street protests over unemployment and government corruption. The country has been relatively quiescent since the brutal wars of 1992-95, but the peace has been uneasy and unstable because many political issues were left unresolved. The protests reflect that unease, and have likely been precipitated by the overall slowdown in economic activity in Europe. The fear is that these protests could re-ignite the animosities of the earlier period. The protests should also be viewed in the context of the other protests in Europe against the economic situation in many countries.
Muslims are fleeing the Central African Republic, and Christians are celebrating their departure. It appears as if the humanitarian intervention by France has had little effect on the violence in the country and it does not seem as if the Muslims are receiving any protection at all.
China has opened a memorial hall in Harbin in honor of Ahn Jung-geun, an independence activist who assassinated Hirobumi Ito in 1909. At that time Korea was a protectorate (colony) of Japan, and Ito was the Japanese Governor of the protectorate. Ito had served a Japanese Prime Minister and was a highly regarded political figure. The Chinese and Koreans regard Ahn Jung-geun as a hero; the Japanese regard him as a terrorist. The memorial is part of the complex public relations campaign being waged between China and Japan. The danger is that the campaign is stoking nationalist sentiments in both countries.
Tensions over Ukraine between the US, the European Union, and Russia took a rather bizarre turn as a US State Department official’s comments about the diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis in Ukraine were intercepted and broadcast over YouTube. Russia seized upon the video to argue that the US was interfering in the internal affairs of Ukraine, thereby escalating the stakes in the outcome of the struggle–it is no longer about an internal matter for Ukraine, it is now to some observers a struggle for control over the foreign policy of Ukraine.
The collapse of the talks about Syria in Geneva was a terrible tragedy for the people of Syria. One way for the talks to restart and perhaps proceed more productively would be to invite Iran to join the talks. The UN initially invited Iran, but rescinded the invitation after the US objected. The Voice of America has published a very cogent op-ed that argues that the US should reverse its opposition and allow Iran to join the next stage of talks which is scheduled to begin in a few days.
Google Earth has produced a new program that allows people to view local temperatures over the last few decades. I encourage everyone to play around with the new program–it’s easy to use and shows an incredible amount of information. Unfortunately, it also shows that local temperatures have clearly increased. Obviously, the program does not explain why the temperature has increased, but the reality of higher temperatures is hard to deny.
The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) publishes an annual review of global military spending, and this year’s edition shows a pronounced shift in spending from the NATO countries to Asian countries. The US remains the largest spender by far, but China is quickly catching up to the US. The US still spends more than the next 14 countries combined.
The United Kingdom Independence Party is a fringe party in Great Britain that staked out a strong anti-European Union position. It has succeeded to win enough votes to have members in the British Parliament, and one of those Members has issued a special code of conduct for Muslims in Britain called the “charter of Muslim understanding.” He wants all Muslims to sign the charter, which includes a demand that Muslims “sign a declaration rejecting violence and says parts of the Qur’an that promote ‘violent physical Jihad’ should be regarded as ‘inapplicable, invalid and non-Islamic’.” The charter is another example of the anti-Muslim sentiment that continues to grow in many parts of the world.
Turmoil continues in the economies of the emerging markets, and the worries associated with that turmoil are definitely affecting the stock markets across the planet. It is always difficult to tell when anxiety might turn to panic, and The Atlantic has a good essay on how to interpret the concerns on whether the emerging markets could initiate a broader economic crisis.
Between 2008-09 there was a very violent civil war in Sri Lanka as the government battled a separatist movement. The Tamils are a minority group in Sri Lanka which is dominated by the majority Sinhalese population. The civil war had simmered for many years, and matters came to a head in 2009 when the government made a sustained push to isolate and destroy the Tamil militants. The estimated dead in this military operation ranged between 40-70,000, and the last push in the very northern part of the island was particularly brutal. A team of international lawyers has just charged the government with war crimes associated with the operation, and the US has indicated that it would support a proposal to investigate the war crimes charges.
A new strain of influenza has been discovered in China. The international community has grown increasingly sensitive to the emergence of new diseases, as disease mutations can have devastating effects on the human population. The so-called “Spanish” flu in 1918 actually killed more people than were killed in World War I. One of the consequences of globalization is that the transmission vectors for new diseases have become significantly more numerous and rapid. When new strains of the flu emerge, disease control centers all across the globe become quite vigilant.
The Afghanistan Parliament has passed a law which would have the effect of vitiating any legal protections of women who suffer domestic abuse. The law would ban relatives of those accused of domestic crimes from testifying in any criminal proceeding. In Afghan society, the only witnesses to domestic abuse would most likely be members of the husband’s family. If President Karzai signs the bill into law, it will unravel much of the progress that has been made in recent years to create legal protections for women.
Thailand’s election was completed today, but it appears as if 6 million voters were not able to vote, or chose not to vote. The sizable number of people not voting makes it difficult for Yingluck Shinawatra to claim the legitimacy she had sought in calling for an early election: no one could possibly claim to have a mandate from such a distorted poll. The outcome leaves the Tahi government in a state of limbo, a result that is perhaps manageable, but one that will likely frighten foreign investors. Given the fear that exists in other emerging markets in the world, the uncertainty could have financial consequences for the country.
An election is scheduled for 5 April in Afghanistan. The election will replace President Karzai who constitutionally cannot run for a third term. Outsiders will be watching the election carefully. First, to see if the election can be carried out in a peaceful manner given the opposition of the Taliban to the current structure of power. Second, to see whether a candidate who might prove to be more accommodating to retaining US military advisers and aid will be likely to win. President Karzai has made it virtually impossible for the US to maintain any presence in Afghanistan after the pullout of combat troops later on in this year. But a complete pullout of all American support would probably prove to be highly destabilizing to the country.
There was quite the diplomatic dust-up between the US and Israel that had a touch of the surreal on Sunday. US Secretary of State Kerry referred to the growing movement to isolate Israel because of its policies toward the Palestinians as a possible threat if the current peace negotiations fail. The statement was meant as a descriptive one, and a prediction based upon Kerry’s sense of the growing frustration globally over the slow pace of the talks. The Israelis, however, interpreted the statement as a veiled threat by Kerry and responded quite harshly to his comments. I suspect that the Israeli sensitivity to the issue is based upon a genuine fear that the move to isolate Israel is taken seriously by many who have previously supported Israeli policies.
The Thai elections have already begun, and there has been a great deal of violence associated with early balloting. The opposition has vowed to boycott the elections, and forced the closure of many election stations. A large number of police and military have been deployed, but it is difficult to imagine any reasonable outcome to these elections. The political path forward for Thailand is very murky, and its economic situation seems to be suffering from the ambiguity.
As Russia and the West square off in Munich over Ukraine, one cannot help but be sobered by the possibility of a revival of the Cold War. The Global Post has a succinct overview of the Russian interests in keeping Ukraine in its sphere of influence.
A new phrase has been introduced into the vocabulary of political economy: “the Fragile Five.” These are the large emerging economies of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey which has recently been rocked by the end of the policy of quantitative easing in the US. These five countries are large enough to make a big difference in the health of the global economy, but not large enough on their own to withstand shocks from the largest economies. Dani Rodrik is an economist with a long-standing critique of globalization and sympathy for the developing economies. Nonetheless, he has co-authored an essay which criticizes the inability of the Fragile Five to forge a path different from that determined by traditional neo-liberal globalization.
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